Tech Talk for Friday April 5th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday April 5th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 8 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved higher following release of the March Employment Report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for March Non-farm Payrolls is an increase to 170,000 from 20,000 in February. Actual was 196,000. Consensus for March Unemployment Rate is unchanged from February at 3.8%. Actual was unchanged at 3.8%. Consensus for March Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.1%.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at 74.72 cents U.S. after release of the Canadian March Employment Report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for March Employment was an increase of 6,000 versus a gain of 55,900 in February. Actual was a drop of 7,200. Consensus for March Unemployment Rate was unchanged from February at 5.8%. Actual was unchanged at 5.8%.

Chipotle (CMG $703.38) is expected to open higher after Stifel Nicolaus raised its target on the stock to $700 from $500.

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Urban Outfitters added $1.64 to $33.41 after Wedbush raised its target price to $35 from $30.

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Intel (INTC $55.92) is expected to open lower after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform.

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Viacom (VIAB $29.27) is expected to open higher after RBC Capital upgraded the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2019/04/04/stock-market-outlook-for-april-5-2019/

Note seasonality chart on Non-farm Payrolls.

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Intermediate breakout:$SHW Breakdown: $CAH

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Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included CMCSA, HOG, KSS, ROST, MCHP and DISH. Breakdown: JNJ.

Gold ETN $GLD moved below $121.03 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Junior Gold Miners ETF $GDXJ moved below $30.60 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Editor’s Note: Gold and gold equities/ETFs staged a strong recovery in late trading.

Platinum ETN $PPLT moved above $82.84 and $83.11 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Altagas $ALA.CA moved above $18.04 extending an intermediate uptrend

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Home Builder ETF $XHB moved above $39.44 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Vermillion Energy $VET.CA moved below $32.40 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDU moved above its November high set at 26,277.82.

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Johnson & Johnson $JNJ, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $135.74 completing a double top pattern.

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Goldcorp $G.CA $GG, a TSX 60 stock moved above $15.42 Cdn. extending an intermediate uptrend (Editor’s Note: The company approved the merger with Newmont Mining)

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 4th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 4th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 4th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.00 to 80.76 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer gained 4.94 to 72.02 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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15 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday April 5th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Excellent US jobs report this morning that was higher than estimates and also included a bump up in the labour force participation rate = NO RECESSION BOGEYMAN.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    FDX – Great time to buy. Beaten down by the recession bogeyman and now breaking out with the transports with a lot of room to move higher.

  3. Bernie Says:

    Question for the group:

    I’ve often heard: stocks which hit new 52 week highs often continue on to make 52 week highs and stocks that hit new 52 week lows often continue to make new 52 week lows. Is there any statistics/research to support this theory?

  4. Kam Says:

    Hello Bernie,

    Re-3

    See if you can find something from this PDF.
    One thing it says that people who buys the top 10% and sells the bottom 10% of stocks ranked by returns during the past 6 months, and holds the positions for 6 months, produces profits of 1% per month.

    http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.196.5207&rep=rep1&type=pdf

    I think Rich gets Richer and poor get poorer also belongs in the same neighbourhood.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Was playing around with the High/Low indicators and came up with this. Thought you may glean something from it. Out of time for me as I’ve been ordered to get off the laptop and turn on Rake on Netflix if I can’t find a movie. Can’t find good movies on Netflix anymore.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28358888343&a=657157579

  6. Bernie Says:

    Kam,

    Re:#4
    Thanks Kam. Lots to go through in that study, definitely not a comfortable afternoon read.

  7. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    I’m not really sure what I’m looking at in your chart unless its to show what happened after recent overbought and oversold levels on the SPX. I was relaying a question asked in the Facebook Canadian Dividend Group. Have you heard of any actual facts on the long term success rate with buying at 52 week highs vs 52 week lows?

    We watched a movie on Netflix tonight (The Highwaymen) about the tracking down and killing of of Bonnie and Clyde in the 30’s by two former Texas Rangers. Excellent movie!

  8. bruce Says:

    ron
    i ll be forever grateful for your alerting us to Rake……all time best acting and funniest i ve ever seen……Bernie…..Wall St. has always preached to sell your losers and hold your winners……easy to say but hard to do……..
    Where s Armstrong these days?…

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    All I know for sure is that old high is major price resistance and the short sellers will be shorting the crap out of it as a rule. After all that old high was the maximum the collective traders believed price could achieve all things considered and what is different now is the question. So one does tend to see price selloff from there. BUTTTTTTTTTT if enough traders buy at that old high and see price breakout over it then breakout traders will jump on knowing those short sellers must cover or get eaten alive. So the buying is often artificial being short covering with some buyers chasing them. That’s why the standard technical way to buy the stock from technical books is to wait for a pullback to that breakout point so all the erratic nonsense is out of the way. But the old saying is “New Highs beget New Highs”. Here is a link with some discussion on the subject. The chart I posted just shows the number of new highs and then the number of new lows and the New High/New Low indicator. Just something to consider but I never found it all that helpful overall other than when reaching 90% new highs or the same for new lows the market is definitely near a reversal. Not a precise enough indicator for my liking. Thanks for the movies idea. Hard to find good movies on Netflix. Can only watch so much RAKE,lol.

    https://www.moneycrashers.com/52-week-high-stocks/

  10. Bernie Says:

    bruce,

    Re: #8
    That’s definitely a tough one for the dividend buy and holders who did their DD on the fundamentals. They have a lot more to think about than the price, especially when the objective is to never sell and to live off the growing income at some point. Many DGIs will sell if the stock no longer meets their criteria and they have a suitable replacement.

  11. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Thanks for the chart and link. I suspect there is no absolute answer for the buy and holders anyway but when I get some time I plan to read the linked article and study you & Kam provided.

  12. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Forgot to mention that we also have been watching the Netflix series Rake which you recommended. Very good program!

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie NTR

    Glad you like RAKE. My favourite person other than Cleaver Greene is Missy. Gotta love that smile she has…..along with everything else. She just lights up like a Christmas tree.

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Big breakout on Platinum. Wonder what Platinum stocks or ETFs there are that would be cheaper to trade this.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PPLT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44503054377&a=657335214

  15. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #13
    Right on the money there Ron, love her smile!

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