Tech Talk for Thursday April 18th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday April 18th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 4 points in pre-opening trade. Investors are waiting for release of the redacted version of the Mueller report at 9:30 AM EDT.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was an increase to 205,000 from 196,000 last week. Actual was 192,000. Consensus for the April Philly Fed Index was a slip to 10.3 from 13.7 in March. Actual was 8.5. Consensus for March Retail Sales was an increase of 1.0% versus a decline of 0.2% in February. Actual was an increase of 1.6%.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at 74.74 cents U.S. after release of February Canadian Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.4% versus a decline of 0.3% in January. Actual was an increase of 0.8%. Excluding auto sales, consensus for February Retail Sales was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in January. Actual was an increase of 0.6%.

Alcoa (AA $$27.72) is expected to open lower after reporting lower than consensus first quarter earnings.

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United Rental (URI $125.76) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings.

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Travelers (TRV $135.87) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus first quarter sales and earnings.

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American Express (AXP $111.76) is expected to open lower after reporting lower than consensus first quarter revenues.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/04/17/stock-market-outlook-for-april-18-2019/

Note seasonality charts on the Technology sector relative to the S&P 500 Index and the Healthcare sector relative to the S&P 500 Index.

 

 

Observations

Nice reverse Head & Shoulders pattern completed by the Auto ETF on a move above $34.92!

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Nice breakout by the Fertilizer/Potash ETF above $9.72 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Mixed. Intermediate breakouts: $PVH $RL $FANG $CBOE $CAT $CTAS $LMT $TXT $UNP $GOOGL $GOOG $ICE

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Mixed. Intermediate breakdowns: $BK $BDX $PFE $ZBH $VZ $D $VTR $MNK $VRTX

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Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakout included NKE. Breakdowns included UDR, VNO, ALXN, ISRG, LH, WAT, NKTR and IP.

Caterpillar $CAT, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $142.55 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Alphabet $GOOGL $GOOG, one of the FAANG stocks moved above $1236.44 and $1231.79 respectively extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Verizon $VZ, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $57.73 setting an intermediate downtrend

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Editor’s Note: U.S. Healthcare stocks had a rough day on higher than average volume! See the following charts:

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Pfizer $PFE, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $40.34 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Biotech ETFs $IBB $BBH $FBT moved below support completing a double top pattern.

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U.S. Medical Devices ETF $IHI moved below $219.89 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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U.S. Healthcare Providers $IHF moved below $155.90 extending an intermediate downtrend. Individual breakdowns: $ISRG $LH.

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Aerospace & Defense ETF $PPA moved above $59.95 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Another base metal stock breakout! First Quantum Minerals $FM.CA moved above $36.37 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: A breakout by copper above $2.97 helped First Quantum as well as other base metal stocks/ETFs XBM.TO ZMT.TO COPX

South Africa iShares $EZA moved above $57.81 extending an intermediate uptrend

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Aecon $ARE.CA moved below $16.90 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Bank of Montreal $BMO.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $104.60 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Canada #CPI up 0.7% in March, firmly above the average change for the month of 0.5%. $MACRO #CDNecon #CAD

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Norbord $OSB.CA moved below $32.87 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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NASDAQ 100 Index $NDX moved above 7700.56 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Ditto for $QQQ on a move above $186.66

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Agnico Eagle Gold $AEM $AEM.CA moved below $41.47 U.S. setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Vermillion $VET.CA moved above $35.79 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: Canadian energy stocks moved higher following election of the United Conservative party in Alberta with a favourable energy agenda.

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Franco-Nevada $FNV $FNV.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $70.95 U.S. and $94.64 Cdn setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Nike $NKE, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $88.59 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Crude Oil imports negatively diverging from its seasonal average trend as US becomes less dependent on foreign energy. $USO $UGA $XLE $XOP

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 17th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 17th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 17th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 7.15 to 70.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and has rolled over.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 1.39 to 61.57 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and is trending down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

 

Reminder

North American and many international equity markets are closed tomorrow in honour of Good Friday.

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19 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday April 18th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    WEED about to go off the charts on US purchase of Acreage Holdings that will give it huge entry into a future US market. US investors are raving over it.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    CGC (WEED) – First time I ever bought pre-market – glad I did

  3. Rol Lew Says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtDAK7Umk7A

  4. Rol Lew Says:

    still early in the game

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CGC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08740794291

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    IYT – Dow Transport Ave ETF intra-day neckline break and 50/200 crossover today. It’s all so exciting and euphoric!

    Red Neck Portfolio Peaked? – Tractor Supply Co TSCO rolled over on RSI after a great run, Boot Barn BOOT down for second day to mid Bollinger Band. Speedway Motorsports SMI which does Nascar up big-time today, however. Between marijuana and red-neck stocks what more do you need to build a well diversified portfolio? (Tongue-in-cheek)

  6. Paula Says:

    Ron B/C
    RE: TLT, Thanks for the chart.
    I noticed that Joanne Klein of the Green Line on the StockCharts public chart list, was tracking TLT on pg 1 but has since replaced it (with XLK I think). This is b/c it no longer met her criteria of having above 90 Relative Strength Factor (or SCTR). There is another chart poster that I look at much further down on the chart list, called $$$JC buy/sell signals, named Jack Chan. On page 4, he has a 6 month chart of TLT which is currently on a trendline break sell signal (TLBSS on the chart). It seems to be testing the 50EMA and has become somewhat oversold on MACD. This will trigger a buy signal when the current short term trendline is broken to the upside and the MACD shows a cross above the signal line, so it may be coming up. I like these clean charts for another perspective but they are short term and lack the ADX, so each to his own…
    I will try sending a link to this chart:

    https://stockcharts.com/public/1094070/chartbook/61320502

    Also, there is a CAD equivalent in ZTL.TO, for those who don’t have or want to switch to USD.

    Re: XRE.TO. I remember talking about this one a few years ago when you were talking about buying and renovating houses I suggested this was an easier route for real estate investing. I should have followed my own advice LOL. I would rather own ZRE.TO (in spite of low volume) since it is equal weight and has been outperforming XRE this year. XRE’s volume is not great either and there is more risk due to heavy concentration in REI.UN, CAR.UN and HR.UN. There maybe an opportunity coming up with a pullback to the 20EMA ~ 22.50 on the weekly.

    http://schrts.co/PfVcuAgE

  7. FishFat Says:

    The Canadian Dollar has been in a downward price channel for over a year now. Price is currently in a minor consolidation pattern, waiting for a B/O to define the next move. The MACD is flat – suggesting nothing. The only thing of interest is the extremely low Bollinger Band Width – a significant price sometimes follows.

    http://schrts.co/QKHujbFw

    Paula: re: ZTL.to ………Good to know, thanks.

  8. FishFat Says:

    re: #7 Same chart but with the Bollinger Band Width indicator added. And I meant to say “a significant price move (up or down) sometime follows”.
    http://schrts.co/NKgycsyi

  9. rocketdave Says:

    Anyone notice the $CRB, i think it is getting bullish. So if the $CRB goes up, does that mean that all commodity goes up with it? Anyone know?

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I used to communicate with Jack Chan on technicals in the early 2000’s. He’s in Victoria. I recall he also liked the RSI 21 rather than the standard 14 and he still uses it. And he unlike many traders uses EMA averages rather than simple moving averages. If you compare them you can see the advantage of EMA averages rather than SMA averages in ‘most’ technical analysis. He was a very basic technical guy and kept it all very simple. Here is the TLT with the $SPX overlaid. You can see how well the TLT bond ETF did compared to the $SPX right up until the end of 2017 and has held up well up to date. Does make one wonder about this relationship.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84873111263&a=579408375

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Rocketdave

    The CRB is heavily loaded with Petrolemum products from what I’ve read. Here is the tradeable DBC ETF overlaid in orange which tracks the CRB closely. I’ve also overlaid the CRB chart with the Canadian dollar ETF:$CWE.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45353488580&a=579408518

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBC&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59797271505&a=591656521

    And here are the holdings inside the DBC ETF.

    https://etfdb.com/etf/DBC/

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    #11 should read Canadian dollar $CDW that is viewed as a commodity currency or petro dollar. Not exactly true but believed……………..

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat

    The CD$ is a difficult one to trade and especially difficult to switch currencies with the U.S.$ as there is always a government influence that exists between them as the two countries are the largest trading partners in the world. So there seems to be a consistent spread between them for trading purposes. Can’t have too great a spread as that would cause a lot of chaos. So you don’t see the spread change dramatically very often. And not often is it worth switching when there is a 2% charge each way. One can buy the ETF:FXY or UUP or DLR.to but I haven’t found that too appealing. April is supposed to be one of the most bullish months of the year but don’t see it doing much this April. The U.S.$ is still the best bet as it is the worlds reserve currency. I’m surprised it has held up so well when Trump is always talking about lowering interest rates and the U.S.$ is too high. He is a trader & pro exporter and manufacturer and would love a weaker dollar to increase business. And he isn’t one to bet against. So I have to wonder just how long it will take him to trash the U.S.$. Don’t see it yet but the U.S.$ does need to clear major resistance at 97 cents or it will continue to roll over. The question then will be what other currency in the world is desired. Can’t think of any.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61592734679&a=579408533

  14. Wayne Says:

    NTR
    Tax question.
    Has anybody been audited by the CRA for frequent trading in their TFSA?

  15. Rol Lew Says:

    very interesting TLT/SPX chart in #10 RonBC. if you believe in regression to the mean, something’s gotta give sooner or later.

    semi’s (still) heading for the sky, a little scary, really
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SOXX,SOXL,MU,AMAT,TXN,NVDA,LRCX,AKAM,XLNX,KLAC,ASML,QRVO|D|

    treasuries turning down last 2 wks, high yield & junk, not, but for how much longer?
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?TLT,ZAG.TO,XBB.TO,IGLB,HYLB,HYG,LBS.TO,DGS.TO,DF.TO,LFE.TO,ZHY.TO,PHB|D|0

    dgs.to & df.to, how much better can they get? if you believe in regression………..

  16. Rol Lew Says:

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBC,UGA,USO,UNG,SOYB,WEAT,CPER,PPLT,SIL,CANE,DBE,KOL|D|0

    too many balls to juggle

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41055328804

    don’t really know if commodities generally are not liking the strong us$ – maybe, maybe not. and looks like wheat & soy have a tough row to hoe, so to speak.

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    I thought everyone might enjoy this. It does display the mindset of some……….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPZn4rbiB8g

  18. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC re: #13
    It seems like the game is crooked…………but, it is the only game in town. (LOL)

    I am surprised you referenced the Japanese Yen ETF:FXY and not the Euro ETF:FXE. I know a lot of people use the Yen as a barometer for US interest rates, and gold …….not that I understand the relationship.

    The weekly chart for the Euro/USD pairs trade looks potentially bullish with positive divergence of the MACD and MACD Histogram. Plus the Bollinger Band width is at a multi-year low. But, playing the Euro relative to the USD in relation to the CAD$ has too many moving parts for me.

    http://schrts.co/UrZJNwDB

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat
    I did mean FXE not FXY in Post #13. The Euro just doesn’t look like it has any life left in it to give. But it is the heavy weight currency within the basket of currencies making up the DXY (U.S.$ Index)

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