Tech Talk for Friday May 3rd 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 3rd

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 12 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved higher following release of April Employment Report. Consensus for Non-farm Payrolls was 190,000 versus 196,000 in March. Actual was 263,000. Consensus for April Unemployment Rate was unchanged from March at 3.8%. Actual was down 0.2 to 3.6%, lowest level in 49 years. Consensus for April Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.6%.

Amazon added $41.68 to $1942.50 following news that Berkshire Hathaway has been buying the stock.

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Electronic Arts (EA $94.40) is expected to open lower after MKM Partners downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

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Newell Brands gained $0.56 to $15.24 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter sales and earnings.

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Gilead added $0.11 to 65.41 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/05/02/stock-market-outlook-for-may-3-2019/

Note seasonality chart on Non-Farm Payrolls.

 

Technical Action Yesterday

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was bearish yesterday. Intermediate breakouts included PSA and RMD. Breakdowns included NWSA, FL, NWS, DO, HFC, MRO, NOV, SLB, AMG, FLR, CTSH, GOOG, GOOGL, BLL, OI, CTL and NRG

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Suncor $SU.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $43.11 completing a double top pattern.

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Inter Pipeline $IPL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $21.31 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Russel Steel $RUS.CA moved below $23.01 completing a double top pattern.

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Maple Leaf Foods $MFI.CA moved above 31.11 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: A response to the wildly successful “Beyond Meat” IPO

Chile ETF $ECH moved below $42.14 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 2nd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 2nd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 2nd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 6.00 to 67.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and has rolled over.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 7.41 to 50.64 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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17 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday May 3rd 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Buffett Has Been Buying AMZN. There is another FAANG stock you can have confidence in in addition to AAPL. AMZN up $46 in pre-market today

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/berkshire-hathaway-has-been-buying-shares-of-amazon-warren-buffett.html

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    US Jobs Surge In April. Lowest Unemployment rate since 1969. Time for David Rosenberg to tell us again how we are going into recession.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/nonfarm-payrolls-april-2019.html

  3. rick Says:

    Why investors are bearish ?
    Why investors are against investing in an index ?
    SPX is the benchmark .
    SPX is up 12 % in one year in US $.
    SPX in canadian $ ( vfv.to for example ) is up 19 % in one year .
    All the investors ( including the bears ) should wonder : did I make 19 % last year (YOY) inside RRSP and TFSA ?
    If the answer is no , than you are doing something wrong .
    Maybe is better just to buy the benchmark SPX ?
    Is cash giving you a better return than 19 % ?
    How about 58 % in 3 years ? or 108 % in 5 years ?

  4. Florence Stokes Says:

    Rick: Very good questions and I’ve been wondering why I haven’t used the Index funds. Always thinking it’s too high already? Maybe I should just jump in!

  5. KC Says:

    Hello Paula,

    BCE.to seems to be gradually coming back down to earth. Wondering if you’re looking at a given entry point ? I sold mine at $57 and wish I had not lol

    Hope you’re having a good week.

    Cheers,
    KC

  6. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    I see ECA broke below support on your recent triangle, any further thoughts now on the sector and ECA specifically for short term please ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    ECA broke down just like the Rising Wedge suggested it would. Doesn’t mean it can’t form another pattern but for now it’s just a bearish pattern that typically broke down. I have a new browser now and my computer has been ‘tuned up’ so there are changes to what I see and do on this computer. Not sure what you will see. I hate changes………………………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67803883069&a=579408588

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Rick

    I agree. What’s wrong with trading the broad market with an ETF. Lots to choose from such as XIU.to,ZSP.to,XSP.to and others on the $TSX. And many on the U.S.exchanges but they tend to be very pricey ETFs. Then there are the Sector ETFs on the NYSE. Here is the XIU.to. Just follow the arrows as they seem to know where to go without a lot of flag waving and over exuberance.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53836929593&a=579408564

  9. joe Says:

    Someone recently posted how to save a Stockcharts.com chart that some else has posted. I copied the instructions and put it in a very safe place on my PC…. now I cannot recall where I saved them! If you have the instructions, I would really appreciate if you could let me know. Thanks everyone!

  10. rick Says:

    Florence ,
    To be a good investor you need 3 things :time , strong stomach and patience .
    Time : at least 3 years , better = 10-20 years
    Strong stomach = to consider a 10 % correction = normal
    Patience : almost each year there will be a 10 % correction and every second or third year a 20 % correction = patience to wait for the right moment
    When is the right moment ?
    http://schrts.co/kzjeeshJ

    http://schrts.co/sfcxNaBF

    It was in January .
    1. $SPXA50R and MA10 for $SPXA50R were under 25 and start to recover
    2. PPO for SPX on weekly chart was -2 and start to recover

    Today :
    1. $SPXA50R is above 70
    2. PPO is +2

    Maybe you should wait for a correction ?

    But No indicator is perfect !

    Look at March 2017
    1. $SPXA50R was 75
    2. PPO was +2

    SPX was 2350 , should have a correction , right ?
    But no , SPX move to 2872 first , 22 % up !
    And then SPX had a correction to : surprise = 2350 !

  11. rick Says:

    option 1. you buy and then we will have a 20 % correction = you will be upset that you did not wait . Do you have a strong stomach to resist and not sell at the bottom ? And exactly after you sell , the market start to go up like crazy ( January -April 2019 ) = Murphy law !
    option 2 . you wait for a correction but the market will go up another 20 % = you will be upset that you stay in cash with 0 % return . Do you have patience to wait for a possible correction ? And exactly after you give up and buy we will have a 20 % correction ( another Murphy law ! )
    So do you have time , strong stomach and patience ?

  12. rick Says:

    option 1 : a correction of 10 % will start soon
    option 2 : the market will go up 10 % and then will correct 10 %
    option 3 : the market will go up 20 % and then will correct 10 %
    the numbers are relative of course .
    In option 1 and 2 is better to wait but be aware that option 3 is a possibility too .
    So 66 % wait for a correction and 33 % to buy .
    Considering that option 3 = a move of 20 % is less probable than the other 2 options , I will say : wait for a correction
    Or invest 25 % of your money now ( if you have strong stomach ) and wait for a correction to invest the other 75 % of your money .
    But keep in mind that nobody knows what will happen in future and no indicator is perfect .
    I am 100 % invested in stocks , but I bought a while ago .So a 10 % correction is OK for me .
    I am hoping that market will go up this year because next year , with elections in USA , will be more difficult .

  13. Kam Says:

    Hello folks,

    I read last 2 weeks posts here. Beside usual some new buyers or bulls ar poping up ready to buy here. Excellent. Nothing new. More people r . bulls near tops and bear near bottoms. I read Ron/BC trying to be voice of reason with the chart posts of SPX and its resistance around last top of 2950ish. It has not cleared thru this top and even then need to come back and retest that level to consider it a buy signal.

    Who else reads Ron’s charts and wants to buy here is beyond me!

    Rick also have a good point that if u wants to really buy then buy a little and then average down otherwise wait for some kind of bottom or clear resistance to buy. No point being a pig here. No point listening to some who will pump up only and will tell u be left behind.
    EW think we can go to 3050 before it could be over. I am neither bull not bear. I am trying to bottom fish miners. Holding some Div stocks but mostly in

    Best etf to buy and hold is VOO . Have lower expenses than SPY so is abuy and forget for those who can’t resist
    http://schrts.co/tTbtyqct

  14. Paula Says:

    KC, traveling now so not able to reply much.Maybe Ron/BC has opinion. Like Ron/BC ‘s 60 minute charts.Rick’s point good. Just buy index,legging in. Good luck to all.

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    Kam
    Am watching GDX and short term it is very oversold and testing its uptrendline and price support at the $20.30 ‘area’. It is due for a bounce at least. And looking at overnight trading the $SPX looks like it is getting killed. I think the big boys have shorted the crap out of this double top in the $SPX and are going to be handsomely rewarded,as usual……..

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91932784524&a=579408519

  16. Joe Says:

    Re #9: Thanks to you Paula!

    It was your instructions and I found them from April 11th. I’m copying here again in case others are interested.

    Paula Says:
    April 11th, 2019 at 9:34 pm

    Tawny, Ron/BC
    If you are a stockcharts member, you can save charts that will update by:
    1. Clicking on annotate, bottom left under chart
    2. Wait for it to fully load
    3. Make some small change (I drew a green circle outline around the B/O written by Ron/BC
    4. Press the X in the upper right corner
    5. you will be asked to save changes, so press Yes
    6. give the chart a unique name or accept the name they have already given
    7. Press upload

    That should do it.Maybe I will save these instructions in a word file for when this question comes up. That will save writing it out each time.

  17. Kam Says:

    Ron/BC

    Thanks for GDX chart. This thing is testing people’s patience for yrs now, lol. Gold has not bought this drop in futures yet so who knows?

    Time I wrote last post, I was in gym so to kill time on machine, I started reading ttm for last 2 weeks which I missed, without knowing that futures really down this much. Market might open at almost no loss or be green tomorrow, I don’t care but this is not the time to throw in white towel for folks who missed this rally and go all in. Spx chart doesn’t lie. It’s sum of all fears or stocks. Folks shouldn’t follow its cousin in Canadian $$ and think it has clear resistance and all green lights now., which some TSX investors think, which is all due to $CAD in toilet.

    Please Keep posting Spx charts as usual with what could be next. Our job is to tell people with dry powder to wait. They don’t listen it’s upto them. We can only take horse to water ….

    EW thinks if we go below 2880 then good chance game is over. Let’s see. Spx is not open yet.

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