Tech Talk for Tuesday May 14th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday May 14th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 22 points in pre-opening trade.

Coca Cola added $0.42 to $48.47after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight. Target was increased to $55 from $52.

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Deere (DE $146.28) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral.

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Tyson Foods added $0.93 to $80.50 after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/05/13/stock-market-outlook-for-may-14-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Gold and Bitcoin.

 

Observation

The VIX Index spiked on growing trade war fears between China and the U.S.

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Related South East country ETFs were collateral damage. EWH and EWJ moved below support.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Breakouts: $CME $XEL $DTE. Breakdowns: $HBI $KSS $BK $GWW $KEYS $WHR $SWKS $RL $TXT

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Auto ETF $CARZ moved below support at $32.53

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Fertilizer ETF $SOIL completed a double top pattern on a move below $9.11.

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BMO Equal Weight Global Base Metals ETF $ZMT.CA moved below support at 43.45.

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Teck Resources $TECK $TECK.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below support at $21.26 U.S. and $28.28 Cdn.

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Frontier iShares $FM moved below $27.95 completing a double top pattern.

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Finning International $FTT.CA moved below $22.44 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Retail SPDRs $XRT moved below $43.25 completing a double top pattern.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDU $DIA moved below its 200 day moving average at 25,423.02

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Energy SPDRs $XLE moved below support at $62.81.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks from 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM: Bearish. Breakout: $CMS. Breakdowns: $DLTR $WBA $HAL $A $ITW $NLSN $FTNT

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Editor’s Note: WBA is a Dow Jones Industrial stock

Europe iShares $IEV moved below $43.00 completing a double top pattern.

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Husky Energy $HSE.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $13.21 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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U.S. Utilities surged on lower U.S longer term interest rates $AEP $NEE $PNW $CMS $XLU

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 13th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 13th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 13th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Technical Scoop

Link to David Chapman’s weekly report compliments of www.EnrichedInvesting.com

http://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Trade-wars-good-correction-still-bull-expect-retaliation-party-continues-job-creators-gold-hot-stocks-not.pdf

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer plunged 20.00 to 36.60 yesterday. It changed to intermediate oversold from intermediate neutral on a move below 40, but continues to trend down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.26 to 44.54 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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10 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday May 14th 2019”

  1. Kam Says:

    Spx,

    Sold 1 of the Micro Es Future here at 2837.50. Holding other 3 from average 2805.50. Stop under 2820. Can’t lose now. If we break out the next sell is 2857. Small gains but I trade with much smaller account now. I was sound asleep last night holding those 4 micro ones than holding just one ES future with chance of a gap down. Micro ones are way to easy to average down with each counting for just $5 per point. I won’t trade spy again with these guys being so liquid so far and cost at IB is just 0.47$ per future, buy or sell. Hope they have options soon.
    Check those out .

  2. Kam Says:

    MES,

    Stop moved higher towards 2835ish. Actually now I will be a buyer around 2820 if b wave drop here. Seller again around 2860 if we go there straight. Robotics trading clinic today like tweets. Might be posting trades till I go to work 1130. Trying to nibble in Osb, meoh, nfi,wft etc

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Nice bounce at 2800 on the SP500. I think technically this has played out as expected while the Chinese negotiations have been unexpectedly negative. Interestingly what seems to come out of this is that the Chinese are in a weaker position economically than the US. Even if they decided to sell US treasuries it would not be catastrophic for the US. A lot of manufacturing is looking to relocate out of China to other Asian countries to avoid duties. With exports so lopsided the Chinese have little leverage. Trump has a strong hand.

  4. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Re your post #14 yesterday: I don’t mind your lectures, in fact I really appreciate you explaining your “mindset” of how you manage a trade. You describe very well the rationalizations that a person goes through when they are trying to justify holding onto a losing position, whether to others or themselves. I just thought it was interesting that there was a buy issued when you sold. Of course, that is “what makes a market”. I agree that Jack Chan is a very basic/simple trader – he does call his service “simplyprofits”. My main objection to his charts is that the trendlines can be short term and somewhat arbitrary. They are easy to look at though, when trying to get a quick over view of what has been happening. I like your analogy of the market being like going fishing – there is always another fish in the sea…
    THANKS for continuing to post your great charts!

  5. Rol Lew Says:

    I dont get it Larry. How does moving the factories from china to viet nam result in more jobs on the us of a? And who was it that moved the jobs to china in the first place…. was it the us of a, by any chance? any how you slice it, the corporations win, and the usa loses. yes, to extrapolate, china also loses, but who wins? maga = crapola, so far anyway. ask HOG & PII what they think. And look at what a maga job the tariffs are doing for steel and aluminium.

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HOG,PII,X,AA,SLX|D|0

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    Here is a long term chart of XGD.to. Note the continued downtrend from 2011. And note the underperformance of XGD.to to GLD. The upper chart shows this downtrend well. In a bullish Gold market the stocks outperform the metal and this hasn’t begun yet. The 2nd chart is the Daily. See how price cleared $11.70 in January and remained above and even tested this new support a couple of times until it broke down below this support level in April. Never good to see support breakdown. Also note the falling 20ema is below the falling 50ema and even the 200ema is now falling with price below the 200ema for over a week now. And the RSI 21 is in the red and below the 50 line. So the only thing price has going for it is that 8 month uptrendline that price has been sitting on and trying to bounce off of. While that may hold and I wouldn’t bet against it, the overall odds are against buying and holding this ETF right now. Too many negatives presently but worth looking for ‘trading’ opportunities that will come along ahead. First thing to get bullish is clearing $11.70 or for a trade at support is testing $10.80.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=18&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30552184122&a=579408507

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76822936732&a=579408427

    This 3rd chart is long term and shows how important it is for price to clear the $1370 major resistance level to expect anything major on the upside. The ratio charts above are not yet bullish either.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7481741323c&a=579408509

  7. Kam Says:

    Rol Lew,

    That is what exactly Trump was saying yesterday.Chinese companies have paid no tax. It is an import tax and importers & American consumers pays that . Trump think Americans are dumb enough to buy his BS so keep saying China will lose business or factories and act like a bully. XI is president for life. Those guys will bite us of a somewhere else. Maybe they will collude this time with Dems to take Trump out,lol. Trade wars are nvr good in the end.

    WES update,

    While at work when market start spinning its wheels, I sold 1 more mirco at 2845 and other 2 where stopped out at 2838 near market close. Holding none. Banked about $675 after commission .Will try again if it fall apart at night or tomorrow. One day the dip buying won’t work 😉 . Got filled on NFI, OSB,Meoh, wft.small positions and will cut losses in a heartbeat if they drop.

    Was reading an analyst at EW talking about Bond traders that they are front running the Fed and betting on Rate Cut coming. A rate cut in this environment is like Feds doing it in 2008. Not same scenario but similar. that means market internals are not good and bond traders are usually very smart people. We need to watch out below and protect your portfolio. Later

  8. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    I agree wih Paulas sentiments about your great analysis and breakdown on charts. Not sure if others feel differently, if they do they can choose not to read your posts. Please keep posting! Your experience and knowledge is an asset to many of us. Thank you!!

    Any chance i can have your thoughts on the chart for Magna and AAPL please?

    Thanks,
    KC

  9. Paula Says:

    Even though this guy is trying to sell his service, I thought the article worth a read:

    https://allstarcharts.com/chart-tells-story-best/?inf_contact_key=279efff07cbd4b177c36f360aa3101be680f8914173f9191b1c0223e68310bb1#more-100052

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    MGA has a nice uptrendline from 2009 and the early 2019 low of $42.50 looks like support especially with such extreme oversold readings on the oscillators. The uptrendline itself at $40 would be better but may not get there either. That’s my take on the chart.

    AAPL is between $180 and $190 where it has a lot of history. $190 was a double top in 2018 and that’s where price recently gaped down through. Price broke out over $180 last year and after a bounce pulled back and tested it as support. A test of $180 would likely see a rebound especially with oscillators being oversold presently.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MGA&p=D&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31719057787&a=665232516

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57449326895&a=629598231

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