Tech Talk for Friday May 24th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 24th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 14 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the April Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a drop of 2.0% versus a revised gain of 1.7% in March. Actual was a drop of 2.1%. Excluding transportation orders, consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in March. Actual was unchanged.

HP Inc added $0.52 to 19.71 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter sales and earnings.

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Autodesk dropped $14.50 to $154.04 after reporting less than consensus first quarter sales and earnings.

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Intuit gained $4.29 to $245.60 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter sales and earnings.

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Foot Locker (FL $52.83) is expected to open lower after reporting lower than consensus first quarter sales and earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/05/23/stock-market-outlook-for-may-24-2019/

Note seasonality charts on WTI Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar Index and New Home Sales.

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:30: Bearish. Breakout: $CPRT. Breakdowns: $HRL $KHC $DO $EOG $EQT $HES $HP $MRO $OKE $VLO $JEC $PH $INTC $NTAP $STX $ADS

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts include CHD and D. Breakdowns included CMG, FL, WFC and GD.

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Notably weaker were energy stocks and ETFs on both sides of the border. Breakdowns by $XOP $XEG.CA $XLE $FCG

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Crude oil ETN $USO leading the energy sector on the downside.

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Commerce Bank $CM.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $105.58 completing a double top pattern.

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Teck Resources $TECK $TECK.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $19.78 U.S. and $26.66 Cdn. extending an intermediate downtrend

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Another base metal equity breakdown! Lundin Mining $LUN.CA moved below $5.94 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Semiconductor ETF $SMH moved below $99.84 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Gasoline ETN $UGA moved below $30.61 completing a double top pattern in response to a higher than expected U.S. monthly inventory report

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Europe iShares $IEV moved below $42.88 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Magna International $MG.CA $MGA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $57.84 Cdn to a 16 month low extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Canadian energy stock and ETF breakdowns: $VET.CA $PSK.CA $FRU.CA $XEG.CA $ZEO.CA

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First Service $FSV.CA moved above $120.08 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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New Home Sales down 8.3% (NSA) in April, weaker than the 1.4% decline that is average for the month. $MACRO #Economy #Housing

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Telus $T.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $50.61 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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South Africa iShares $EZA moved below $50.58 completing a double top pattern.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 23rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 23rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 23rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richard’s Blog

Keith asks, “Will the FAANGs roll over”? Following is a link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/will-the-fangs-roll-over/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 7.00 to 41.60 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 6.30 to 43.70 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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25 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday May 24th 2019”

  1. GreenOn Says:

    Quiet – where did everyone go? Mkt certainly has been active !

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    GreenON

    That’s what happens when the market sells off. The wide eyed bullish ones are changing their underware. Fear does that…..

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    BIG TEST here once again with the $SPX. Price has come back to the familiar 2820 major support level and must hold to suggest a rebound is next. A break below this important level would suggest another major selloff. The long term Modified MACD 50,200,1 is just starting to cross below its 20ema for a major sell signal. BUTTTTTT nose pokes don’t count as breakouts need follow through as many have found out lately with price action.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56117417864&a=582707024

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Nice breakout on the TLT.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97314659973&a=654210778

  6. bruce Says:

    hard to see a major sell-off when the public is so bearish……..the aaii figures for may 22nd read just 24.7% bullish vs the historical average of 38.5%……….neutral is 39.2% vs 31% historically and the bears are 36.1% vs 30.5% historically…..personally i would like to see a major sell-off….i ve been holding too much cash for too long…….

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Bruce
    Well the $SPX holding above 2820 would be encouraging but I couldn’t help but notice so many stocks and groups of stocks gaping down with very steep drops for some time now. Doesn’t look like a lot of confidence in even holding these groups. EX:Oils,Semi conductors, Metals and foreign stocks and many well known stocks, etc,etc. And one would think Gold would rally at some point as a safety hedge but very little interest there either. I am watching the Gold group for a signal but not holding my breath for that either as it does tend to selloff into a summer low historically. The U.S.$ is bumping up against its FIB 61.8% retracement point of the 2017 to early 2018 selloff. This 97.50-98 price area is also significant price resistance looking back at the chart. A reversal in the U.S.$ would change a lot of markets. Warrants paying attention to.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97281754010&a=579408533

  8. bruce Says:

    ron
    there is certainly a change in leadership……utilities and reits etc. are not the leaders you would expect if the economy is strong…….the faang stocks are all rolling over…….maybe theyre overowned….david rosenberg will be on bnn early monday morning…i ll be interested to hear his update….

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Bruce
    #8 Very good points. Here is a $VIX chart I did some technical work on with the Shorter Modified MACD 20,50,10 and the $SPX overlaid. It has had a reasonably good track record of buying or selling the $SPX in a timely manner. It has been on a sell signal since early May. Not perfect, but at the same time I wouldn’t bet against it looking at the chart.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96986064650&a=665761377

  10. bruce Says:

    nice work Ron……..looks like its showing a fairly neutral signal for the moment…..which probably makes sense for now….let the public get back to feeling good again…..

  11. Rol Lew Says:

    Ron/BC re the chart in #8, very interesting, a keeper.

    Can you pls post it for UVXY / SPY? (Without a subscription I can’t show the zero line on the macd.)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UVXY&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p72832619279

    I would really also like to see VXX / SPY,

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p81561147193

    The MACD crossing zero helps to filter out the headfakes to avoid.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p81561147193

    These 2 charts ARE based on your #8 post. Thx.

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Rol Lew

    Here is the UVXY chart with the Shorter 20,50,1 Modified MACD with the zero line on it. Keep in mind you don’t really need the zero line actually drawn on the chart if you can’t access that drawing indicator on Stockcharts. Just type in 20,50,10 and you get the same thing plus get the histogram along the zero line. Same thing with the Longer 50,200,1 Modified MACD with the 20ema as a signal line. (50,200,20). And if you wanted to fine tune one or two charts that you often trade you could start adjusting those numbers especially the last number on the MACD as that is the signal line that gets crossed up or down. Each ETF or stock has its own volatility so all indicators will act differently. My main point is to come up with a combination that avoids whipsaws even if that means being late on buy or sell signals. Whipsaws cause doubt and hesitation along with lost money so need to be reduced to a minimum. So I don’t generally try to catch a bottom or top with these type of indicators as they are ‘trend’ indicators unlike double tops or bottoms or other shorter term indicators. I try to stick to using the 20 and 50emas in the MACD along with 50 and 200emas as those emas are used by investors and fund managers more than all the others. But one could fine tune it further using similar numbers such as Fib numbers like 21 or 34 or 55 type of ema. The MACD indicator uses EMA moving averages not SMAs.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p94128896555&a=667207929

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Rol Lew

    Here is the VXX. Not a lot of data in this ETF. I’ve always preferred to overlay the $SPX in blue to separate the main ETF chart in black with the $SPX.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p15822342473&a=667209348

  14. Rol Lew Says:

    Thanks for the new charts Ron/BC, OK I see that I can adjust the macd for myself, back & forth. Yes – avoiding the headfakes/ whiplashes is always the problem here.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p87817404413

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p20847127316

    To me, both charts say sit on your hands next week.

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    Rol Lew
    I noticed that the VXX has not crossed back above the zero line giving a sell signal like the $VIX did in early May. Don’t know the difference in the relationship between them though. I see your chart you are using a 5,15,1 MACD. You can just put on an ema rather than the 1 and you don’t need a zero line then. Also with some charts especially using the longer 50,200,20 MACD the signal line is the crossing of the 20ema NOT the zero line as it would be too slow for a signal. With the shorter 20,50,10 MACD you can get a lot of buy & sell signals or just a lot of whiplash with the 10ema signal line. That can be increased as well to 20 or other longer number than 10 for less whipsaws. Depends a lot on the volatility of the ETF or stock. The 2nd chart is using the 50,200,20 Longer Modified MACD. Nice easy way to trade for several months on the long side and just go fishing on the sell signals. NOTE the signals are when the MACD crosses the 20ema signal line NOT the zero line as that would be too slow for signals!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96986064650&a=665761377

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p82012177549&a=585776983

  16. FishFat Says:

    A bullish Flag formation has developed on Superior Plus Corp (SPB.to). A breakout above the top of the pole (at 12.66) suggests a possible trading opportunity. There is overhead resistance at 12.74 and again at 12.91 that will need to be overcome, but I thought it is worth mentioning.
    http://schrts.co/jPWgCwMX

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of GDX. Price has been testing its 8 month uptrendline continuously all month now. The 50ema is about to touch its 200ema and is either going to cross below it for a bearish cross “OR” test it as support and curl back up again. The Long term Modified MACD 50,200,1 (orange line) crossed below its 20ema signal line (blue line) in mid April giving a price sell signal but has not crossed below the zero line meaning the 50ema remains above the 200ema which is positive. And that MACD orange line is either going to cross below the zero line or curl back up again and remain bullish. Overlaid is the $TSX Gold stock ETF:XGD.to and the $GOLD ETF:GLD. Should be a turning point from here one way or the other……….Watch that 8 month uptrendline to hold or break.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04286443477&a=579408519

  18. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Thanks for the updates on SPX, TLT, VIX and GDX. These are important ones to watch. I am trying to wait patiently for opportunities… going for walks and doing chores instead of watching the screen…

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    I can relate. Been waiting with baited breath for a really nice trade. I’ve walked over 100km over the last two weeks. (Trying to loose the baby fat,lol.) (Been doing that off and on for many decades and it’s not getting easier).

  20. Ana Says:

    There is a head and shoulders on the $SPX.

    There is an inverse head and shoulders formation on the uvxy. Left shoulder starts from March 8th to March 25th.

    Not sure when these will play out. Will try to post charts when I can, maybe someone can do these for me. They are on short time frames.

    I have not been posting because I have been traveling and helping out my family. So tons of work back at my home both outside and inside. Might take me a while to catch up with everything.

    Feeling better because of the weather. I have had a difficult winter because I lost a close friend this winter. Took me some time to accept this. Might have had a touch of depression but I was too stubborn to admit it.

  21. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Here is the UVXY 6 month chart for perspective. Can’t post intraday charts as Stockcharts blocks anyone but subscribers from viewing them.
    Sorry to hear about your difficulties. If I was handy I’d give you a hand. Very sorry to hear about your personal losses. I can relate many times over. And as time goes on it does get better but things are different after. Just have to learn to deal with the new reality which is shallower than before.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UVXY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p10424768916&a=667400273

  22. Ana Says:

    #21. Thank you, Ron/BC for the chart.

    That uvxy is so unusual that it might not even be an inverse head and shoulders. Maybe I am losing my touch.

    I lost interest in trading this past winter. My enthusiasm vanished, even though my trading was going well. My ego did not even kick me back in. I took more breaks than ever before with my trading. I was tired of the desire for more money. Strange occurrences.

    I found myself going for walks when it was really cold and liking the harsh wind on my face thinking that it might jolt me back somehow. Still not totally back, thinking that some part of my brain froze on one of those cold winter nights.

    Thank you for your thoughts. “A new reality, which is shallower than before.” That resonates. My friend and I knew each other for 30 years. She battled so hard. Just when we thought she won, she was gone. Just like that.

  23. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Yes I understand. I try to get enthusiastic about making more money but I don’t care that much as what difference will it make. And I used to walk a lot more than I do now and in the cold and rain. I must be getting better at acceptance now as I prefer better weather for long walks. I guess that’s a good sign. What gets me is how everything just keeps going on like it doesn’t matter about the ones who left. It would be nice to make sense of it all. The good do die young far too often and there is no justifiable reason for it.

  24. Rol Lew Says:

    although uvxy is well in to a retreat, as it did at the start of jun 2018, and jul 2018, i am steadfastly refusing to believe the this downtrend.
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/UVXY/interactive-chart

    so, what’s the use of looking at the chart?

  25. Ana Says:

    #23. Ron/BC

    Thank you for your understanding thoughts.

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