Tech Talk for Friday May 31st 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 31st

U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 29 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded to news that the U.S. has proposed a 5% tariff on Mexican imports on June 10th unless Mexico takes action to reduce illegal immigration.

U.S. automaker stocks with Mexican production facilities quickly responded to Mexican tariff news. General Motors dropped $1.79 to $33.03.

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China’s official Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 49.4 in May from 49.4 in April. Consensus was 49.9.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for April Personal Spending was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.9% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.3%. Consensus for April Personal Income was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.5%..

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at 73.82 following released of Canada’s first quarter GDP at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.7%. Actual was an increase of 0.4%

Gap Stores dropped $3.05 to $17.55 after reporting lower than consensus first quarter earnings. The company also lowered guidance.

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Costco added $0.85 to $242.39 despite reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter earnings.

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Dell Technologies dropped $3.01 to after reporting lower than consensus quarterly results.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/05/30/stock-market-outlook-for-may-31-2019/

Observations

The Nikkei Average at 20,942 moved below support at 20,972 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Mines and Metals SPDRs moved below $24.93 to a 30 month low.

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Cannabis ETF moved below $19.34 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Seasonality Changes at the End of May

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Following are the charts:

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Restaurant Brands International $QSR.CA $QSR, a TSX 60 stock moved below support at $85.85 Cdn and $63.70 U.S.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Intermediate breakout: $DG on better than expected first quarter results. No breakdowns

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Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, intermediate breakout: DISH. Breakdowns: FOX, FOXA, COG, PXD, DUK, BHGE, AES and EXC

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Canadian Tire $CTC.A.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $136.04 and $135.19 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 30th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 30th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 30th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.00 to 32.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold and trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.10 to 39.08 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold and trending down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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23 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday May 31st 2019”

  1. Mary Says:

    Hi Ron/Bruce/Ana/Larry
    Is it time to enter the market. Can you provide support areas. Thanks.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    Trump Has Lost His Mind – With his threat to Mexico the USMCA has overnight become a meaningless scrap of paper. He will break any agreement to get what he wants and today the Chinese are questioning the value of any kind of negotiation with him. There is now going to be a deep crisis of confidence in the ability to do business with the US and the ability of companies to plan anything as long as Trump is president. I would not enter the market in these conditions.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/surprise-mexican-tariffs-hurt-china-agreement-chances.html

  3. bruce Says:

    Mary
    my 40 years of experience as a broker has told me that bad Fridays are usually followed by ugly Mondays……i would wait although remember that free advice is often worthless…..

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Mary
    Yesterday (Thursday)price pulled back to important price support on most major Indexes. I posted some on this site late yesterday. Price so far today has gaped down below these support levels and if we get a Friday close below them that would ‘suggest’ lower prices ahead. Price is also now below the 200ema that is closely followed. The trend indicators I use are all bearish and have been bearish for weeks now. From what I’ve seen other than day trading it doesn’t pay to buy anything when the trend indicators are bearish as it’s like rowing upstream. (other than bond type ETfs) Even $Gold hasn’t done especially well on these stock reversals up until now but the Gold related ETFs and stocks are doing very well with today’s bounce back in $GOLD. The one exception in the broad market ETF is XIU.to is presently just testing important price support at $24. The lower trend indicators are just turning bearish on it as well but not convincingly so yet and price has not broken below $24 on a close. So if one was especially hungry for a trade the XIU.to would be a broad index ETF that is testing important price support. A close below $24 would be an exit signal at your personal comfort level. So those are my thoughts on the charts fwiw…………….

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56117417864&a=582707024

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78450938834&a=579408564

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    The $GOLD Stock ETFs XGD.to and GDX are bouncing back sharply today with the strong price of $GOLD so far today. The XGD.to has cleared $11.70 resistance and the GDX is trying to clear $21.50 resistance. Clearing these two resistance levels on the close would be a positive change but would still need follow through after.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92445052107&a=579408427

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04286443477&a=579408519

  6. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    Would appreciate it if you are able to share your TA on AAPL (where do you see strong support) and EXE.TO at this point, if you have a few mins please.

    Thanks,
    KC

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    The 20 year Bond ETF:TLT continues to gap up and soar………..

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97314659973&a=654210778

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    APPl has broken below $180 support but is also very oversold. The 170 level would be a Fib 61.8% retracement level and a better area to buy. No guarantee it will fall that far but another way would be to see price re-clear $180 with positive oscillators suggesting a bounce back towards $190.
    EXE.to is a bit of a basket case but technically has rallied back to price resistance at $8.15 where it sits presently. Price would need to clear this price and hold to suggest further upside. No volume on this stock which is typical $TSX which also leads to more volatility in the bid/ask. There’s gotta be better fish to fry than this one…………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29226509475&a=629598231

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXE.TO&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99220062685&listNum=1&a=612196672

  9. Mary Says:

    Larry/Bruce/Ron
    Thanks for your response. Guess I will wait till tariffs etc settles down. I remember Europe was causing a lot of stress few years ago then everything was settled and markets . Here we are again.

  10. Mary Says:

    Should read..market advance to new highs.

  11. Ana Says:

    #1. Mary,

    If you can, experiment with your charts, try to find simple moving averages on a time frame that will confirm the market will be going in one direction. Then back check the market.

    It depends on your time frame of trading.

  12. Ana Says:

    Ron/BC

    Thank you for the chart you posted yesterday with the Keltner Channel. I occasionally place the channel with the Bollinger Band, with the Stochastic indicator to see if they are congruent.

    $VIX
    http://schrts.co/jwnNKbGT

    $SPX
    http://schrts.co/GUaCbmYB

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Despite being oversold and at important price support levels the market still broke down on this Friday close.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40860795676&a=662808077

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56637529525&a=582707024

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of the XIU.to (TSX60 Index) ETF. Gotta be impressed with the price action that tested support today while so many other markets broke down. The Financials and Energy components make up over 2/3rds of this ETF and they got hammered today. But price still held at $24 support AND close near the high of the day. Doesn’t guarantee it will continue to hold above support but that price action was impressive relative to other major ETFs. Trend indicators are just turning bearish though. Bottom line: Price must hold above $24 on a close to suggest higher prices.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05446954708&a=665135054

  15. Ana Says:

    This does not look good…

    https://invst.ly/axrpu

  16. Ana Says:

    This does not look good either…

    https://invst.ly/axrr2

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Re:#12
    I like the Keltner channel over the B.Bands. Each has its own character but together seem to work well as both have their own message. But together they are more useful.

  18. Rol Lew Says:

    new 52 wk highs = 241 . new 52 wk lows = 520
    https://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ta_highlow52w_nl&ft=4&o=-volume

    interesting charts last week end on volatility . uvxy, from 35 to 40 this past week.
    vxx, from 27 to 30.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45472027785
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66685766036
    tlt looks like nosebleed territory – 3 trades presented this year.

  19. Rol Lew Says:

    keltner and bollinger – volatility squeeze breakout
    https://www.breakoutwatch.com/bow-volatility-squeeze-pattern

    e.g., john carter ttm sqz indicator sales pitch.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEAl7TMJyRY&list=PLdsABIMT0Ggm2yQ6wZQQF9xtWeebPoMdK

  20. Ron/BC Says:

    NOT looking good for Monday’s opening…………

    https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

  21. Paula Says:

    I tried posting but it did not seem to go through, yet the site is telling me that I already posted…

    I will try it again, sorry if it is repeated.

    Agree with post #20. Here is a site I like for futures…

    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

    you can see quick simple charts by holding the cursor over rectangle for a few seconds.

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    Thanks for the link. I came across it once before but couldn’t recall the odd name of the site. Great site. Look at Dr.Copper that is not predicting anything positive ahead either. But I’ve often seen a bad overnight trading session end and Monday morning things reverse. So I’ll see what gives in the morning. I’d love to see a crash and burn scenario over the next few months and into 2020 which would likely see a change in the Federal Government here and in the U.S. Nothing more important than economics when it come time to vote. George Bush Sr. found that out the hard way despite being a hero in so many ways. (Love is not enough)

  23. Ana Says:

    $VIX

    Chart in comment #12 of $VIX showed that it has not reached resistance as of yet. So much room to the upside.

    Also might be building another head and shoulder.

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