Tech Talk for Thursday June 6th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday June 6th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures gained 8 points in pre-opening trade.

European Central Bank maintained overnight lending rates

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was unchanged from the previous week at 215,000. Actual was 218,000. Second estimate of first quarter real Productivity was 3.3% versus the revised first estimate of 3.6%. Actual was 3.4%. Consensus for April Trade Deficit was $50.5 billion versus $51.9 billion in March. Actual was $50.8 billion.

The Canadian Dollar moved slightly higher to U.S. 74.64 cents following release of Canada’s April Trade Balance at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a deficit of $2.80 billion versus a deficit of $3.21 billion in March. Actual was a deficit of $970 million.

Costco (COST $247.96) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus sales in May.

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Ciena (CIEN $35.88) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter sales and earnings.

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United Continental gained $1.26 to $83.11 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/06/05/stock-market-outlook-for-june-6-2019/

Note seasonality chart on Crude Oil Days of Supply.

 

Observation

Frontier ETF moved above $29.23 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Aerospace & Defense ETF $PPA moved above $62.68 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $CPB $NDAQ $JCI $ARE. No breakdowns.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts included KMB, TTWO, ARNC, EFX, EXR, SBUX, HRL, MSCI, ALLE, MDLZ, BF.B, BAX, WMT, ATO and PLD. Breakdowns included MUR and FANG.

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Cenovus Energy $CVE.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $10.63 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Enerplus $ERF.CA moved below $9.60 extending an intermediate downtrend

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Starbucks $SBUX, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $79.65 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Ensign Energy Services $ESI.CA moved below $5.06 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Domestic production of US Crude Oil jumps to another record high at 12.4 million barrels per day. Production is up 6% this year alone, much more than average. $USO $UGA $CL_F $XLE $XOP

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Wal-mart $WMT, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $104.51 after its annual meeting extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 5th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 5th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 5th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer gained another 8.22 to 48.30 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer gained 0.84 to 47.48 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday June 6th 2019”

  1. Green/ON Says:

    Hi Ron,

    I would greatly appreciate your technical view of TOU.to.
    Thanks in advance.

  2. Mary Says:

    Ron/BC

    Thanks for your chart and comments on Cronos. I was hoping to do a short term trade, aware this is very speculative.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Green/ON

    TOU.to has been in a downtrend since its $58 top in 2014. Presently approaching a double bottom at $15.77. But it has consistently been having lower highs and lower lows which hasn’t changed. So I wouldn’t bet on the double bottom holding if touched. The 50ema recently turned up and touched the 200ema and rolled over again just like in 2018, so the trend continues down. Not much positive technical action on this chart.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOU.TO&p=D&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29633388816&a=669265719

  4. Green/On Says:

    Thanks Ron!

  5. bruce Says:

    the AAII numbers for the week ending may 5th……they say pessimism is at an unusually high number and optimism is at an unusually low level…..22.5 34.9 42.6

  6. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    I have been looking at the recent move in gold and surprised there hasn’t been more discussion of it here. I know it is not the seasonal time for gold, yet, maybe that is why it hasn’t been mentioned by our host. Or maybe I missed it. Here is an old chart of yours that I saved. There has been a poke above the 11 year down trend line but of course, still a long way to go…I wonder if you any comments to add:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3AGLD&p=D&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83943070702&a=558414351

  7. bruce Says:

    Gary/ Sherri
    I see Armstrong has a new blog for the Dow going into July…..would certainly appreciate it if you would share it with us……..tu….

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    That chart in #6 I made up is a ratio chart of the Gold Bugs Index $HUI compared to the Gold ETF:GLD,not $GOLD. The importance of it is Gold stocks ‘should’ outperform Gold when a significant turn in Gold occurs. Here is an 8 year $GOLD chart with a variety of ratio charts above which are not yet showing much strength. But this 8 year Gold chart does show how important it is for price to clear $1370 to mean much of anything. Price has been in a 3.5 year consolidation pattern with a clear top at $1370. The lows have been higher so one could argue it is a bullish Ascending Triangle. But also notice the Dec/15 higher low didn’t hold as support and saw a lower low in 2018 so all we have is 2 price points for the rising bottoms which isn’t that significant. One could also argue that price is in a sideways Rectangle with Dec/16 low of $1124 the bottom of that yet to be tested low support. Bottom line doesn’t change on either scenario. Price MUST clear $1170 to suggest price is over its consolidation-sideways price action and broken out on the upside and has begun an uptrend to $1550 resistance. So far looking at a long term chart not much bullish price action has occurred yet. Price typically also has a summer low and that wont be forgotten by many traders.

    The 2nd chart is a 13 year chart of GDX. Note the GLD overlaid showing the GDX underperforming Gold. Also note the 2.5 year consolidation of GDX. Even breaking out and running up to $30.82 would only be a Fib38.2% retracement of the 2011 to 2016 selloff which is nothing more than a typical bear market rally. So there is a lot of work to do for Gold to become the “Belle of the Ball” again.And Gold isn’t what it used to be especially with such a low inflation environment. Interest rates are predicted to fall with the Feds ‘cutting’ rates this year a couple of times which tells you how weak the overall economy is expected to become. Not the sort of playing field for a rip roaring bull market in Gold. BUTTTTTTTTTTTT price is king and trading the charts is the way to go regardless of all the ‘stories’ being told about Gold. Lots of analysts getting on that bandwagon already.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52288899588&a=579408509

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54834868422&a=579408537

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    “””IF””” the precious metals are going to run up SIL is poised to make some huge gains providing Silver gets into the game. Price just recently tested major price support at $22. It did break below this level briefly so I was waiting for it to plunge or just have a false breakdown and come back above support again. Price did come back over support sharply and I didn’t get a fill with the gap up the next day and another gap up the following day (Breakaway Gap). Price is presently churning around $24 and ‘could’ see a pullback to perhaps $23-$22.50. If it does I’ll pick up some as the downside would be an exit below $22 which makes it a small risk.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p65500647904&a=669361769

  10. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks for your detailed responses and charts. Lots to think about absorb.

  11. Gary Says:

    #7 Bruce

    The market is still in a sideways choppy mood. The failure to get back above the 26500 area still leaves this market vulnerable into the first week of July. Once again, we do not see a breakout to the upside until the ECM turns and likewise, we do not see a major crash. A month-end close below the 24250 area will signal we will most likely see July low. We should see a Directional Change come into play on the Daily Level next week.

  12. bruce Says:

    tnx Gary…..

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