Tech Talk for Tuesday June 25th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday June 25th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 3 points in pre-opening trade.

Allergan jumped $38.93 to $168.52 after AbbVie reached an agreement to purchase the company in a cash-and-share deal priced at $188.24 per share and valued at $63 billion. Each Allergan share is to be exchanged into 0.8660 AbbVie shares and $120.30 cash

The Allergan/AbbVie deal is attracting additional buying in other pharmaceutical and biotech stocks that are potential takeover candidates.

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Lennar (LEN $51.41) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter revenues and earnings.

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Grubhub gained $3.61 to $75.80 after Citigroup upgraded the stock Buy from Neutral.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/06/24/stock-market-outlook-for-june-25-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Dow Jones Transportation Average and Gold Futures

Observations

Seasonal influences for North American equity markets tend to be neutral in the summer months but positive between now and the third week of July.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 24th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 24th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 24th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Scoop

Thank you to David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com for the following link:

http://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Dove-week-trade-threats-Gulf-clouds-funds-pull-what-if-recession-warning-gold-risk-markets-rise.pdf

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Intermediate breakouts: $NFLX $DRI. Breakdown: $NCLH

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Maple Leaf Foods $MFI.CA moved below $29.73 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Another base metal stock breakout! BHP Billiton $BHP moved above $57.25 to a six year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Junior Gold MIners ETF $GDXJ moved above $35.04 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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TransAlta $TA.CA moved below $8.34 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 0.40 to 69.54 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 3.23 to 58.47 yesterday. It changed to intermediate neutral from intermediate overbought on a drop below 60.00.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




13 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday June 25th 2019”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    Anyone who subscribes to Stockcharts be aware that if you Apply your current chart style shown with the selected chart you saved to all charts in your chart list and click “Apply style to all” you will get exactly that. I did this after some adjustments that I had to add or change each time I saved a new chart. Sooooooooooo to avoid having to change each new saved chart I clicked “Apply to All” my changed settings and lost all my Monthly and Weekly and Intraday charts instantly and ended up with a lot of screwed up charts that made no sense at all as the annotations were for non-daily charts. Keep it in mind if you decide to change your settings at all. Best to keep what you have and tweek each new chart saved. One word comes to mind…………………

  2. Green/ON Says:

    Hi Ron/BC

    With gold punching though 1400 convincingly and per this sites technical score so strong, do you think this takes a breather? Which gold stocks do you think are going to carry this higher – so far KL.TO has been a consistent leader but do you see some of the laggards starting to participate and that they will be the leaders for the next stage of this run up?
    Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Redoing my intraday charts I just noticed that the XSP.to just broke below 32.50 which was the June 18th high that saw a price breakout on the 20th and was successfully tested on the same day the 20th. Price tested it again today and broke below 32.50. Next support is 32.30 which was the June 11th high that saw a breakout on the 18th and a successful test of 32.30 on the 20th. (Check closing prices to confirm the breakdown.) Not much to chase after but thought I’d post it while I’m trying to restore some intraday charts. And of course I can’t post the chart that non subscribers can see but Stockcharts subscribers should be able to see this. Non subcribers will just see a Daily chart of the Dow I think.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XSP.TO&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p31224655200&a=672896058

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Green/ON
    KL.to broke out over $47.50 area and has run up another 10 bucks to $58 and is very overbought and a long ways from its 200ema & uptrendlines. Notice its down today so far with $GOLD up. Not a good sign. While this stock has been unlike most $GOLD stocks with its steady uptrend it will pullback like all of them do. I’ve found over the years that the “Belle of the Ball” stocks in a particular sector end up being trashed after the big boys have milked the cow til it’s dry. But these small precious metal stocks are a coin flip as anything can happen to them including running out of cash to mine etc. Even the big precious metal stocks have their problems including take overs and political issues abroad. So I think the best way to deal with it is buying a $GOLD stock ETF:XGD.to on the $TSX or GDX on the NYSE. There are others as well but I’d avoid the leveraged ETFs as they will decay quickly unless trending up. The upper chart is the Junior $Gold stock ETF:GDXJ on the NYSE. This is a ratio chart comparing it to the major $GOLD Stock ETF:GDX and you can see how it has underperformed. With politics being what it is a money issues on mining the Juniors are in a tough position relative to the major mines from what I see. Also on the upper chart is the $TSX major $GOLD Stock ETF:XGD.to compared to the U.S. Junior Gold stock ETF:GDXJ and you can see the last two years the XGD.to has held its own compared to the GDXJ. And the XGD.to is a lot cheaper to buy and is in CD$ if you don’t want to spend U.S.$.There are other ETFs as well but other than buying some speculative low cost stocks like lottery tickets just for fun I’d stick to the ETFs myself. Less chance of losing from what I see. If you change the GDXJ chart from 10 years to about 5 years it will be clearer to view price action. I just wanted to show the long term chart to display just what this ETF can do.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KL.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02469945248&a=579408654

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56105393992&a=672904890

  5. Green/ON Says:

    Hi Ron/BC

    Thank you very much.
    Very sobering chart for Gold. Looks like seasonally this may be close to the top for it.
    Interesting to see the spike in volume that preceded the big stock price rise for KL.TO in recent months. I’ve seen a similar pattern like this for other stocks who had a significant rise.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Green/ON

    Here is the long term chart of $GOLD. One can see the 5 year resistance price of $1370 which has just been cleared recently. Next resistance is $1550,as long as $GOLD can hold above the $1370 breakout price. Above is the ratio chart of the major Gold Stock ETF:GDX compared to $GOLD which has been in a mild uptrend comparatively for some time now. The $GOLD stocks historically outperform $GOLD in a bull market so the stocks tend to be a better odds bet especially when in an ETF. The 2nd chart is one that I think I’d prefer as it is less volatile than stocks and is the ETF:CEF.to (or CEF on the NYSE)This is pure Bullion of Gold and Silver stored in a bank in Canada from what I understand. The upper chart compares this precious metals ETF with the XGD.to major Gold stock on the $TSX. One can see the Gold stocks don’t do as well as the precious metals when in a downtrend but as recently shown the Gold stocks XGD.to outperforms the precious metals.

    But the CEF.to or CEF is the pure bullion and is less likely to crash and burn than Gold stocks will. And with such a nice sideways consolidation pattern the CEF.to or CEF is what I’d prefer. Price needs to either breakout over the top of its sideways channel or retest the bottom of the channel at $15 for a buy. Historically Gold tends to have a low in June and a bounce and can be choppy in July with another low in August. But one can’t count on this happening every year either. So the chart will tell the tale best……….But with $GOLD clearing the 5 year resistance price point of $1370 it does look like it’s time for precious metals to turn up once again. But it won’t be a simple ride up either especially for the “fear of missing out” crowd that will buy at tops and bail at bottoms.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61769615381&a=579408551

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CEF.TO&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22850764446&a=650041787

  7. Ana Says:

    $SPX

    Making an attempt at 2868 – 2870 ish.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Green/ON

    Here is a chart of the Silver ETF:SIL that has gone up 25% since the end of May when it tested $22 support. The above ratio chart shows SIL compared to the Gold ETF:GLD and one can see price was just trading sideways relative to each other up until the end of May. But since the end of May SIL has been outperforming GLD clearly and little has been said about Silver in the Financial press as it doesn’t have the sparkle or hype that $GOLD has. A pullback here would be preferred to get long. I recall posting this chart when it tested $22 back in late May.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01971099704&a=669361769

  9. Green/ON Says:

    Hi Ron/BC

    Great insights!- much appreciated.

  10. Ana Says:

    $SPX Futures

    https://invst.ly/b3puj

  11. bruce Says:

    ana
    any projections?…..

  12. bruce Says:

    ana

    i see your projection above….2870………tnx…….

  13. Ana Says:

    bruce,

    Also looking at $VIX

    Looking the top bollinger band.

    https://invst.ly/b3sl-

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