Tech Talk for Friday June 28th 2019

Daily Reports Add comments

 

Next Report is to be Released on Tuesday

Monday is a federal statutory holiday celebrating the dominion of Canada.

Pre-opening Comments for Friday June 28th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 6 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for May Personal Income was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.5% in April. Actual was an increase of 0.4%. Consensus for May Personal Spending was an increase of 0.5% versus a gain of 0.5% in April. Actual was an increase of 0.4.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at 76.45 cents U.S. following release of April Canadian GDP at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.2%. Actual was 0.3%.

Nike dropped $0.46 to $83.27 after reporting lower than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings.

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Pfizer added $0.28 to $43.71 after receiving USDA approval for the oncology drug Zirabev.

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Procter & Gamble added $1.57 to $111.35 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral. Target price was raised to $125 from $114.

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/06/26/stock-market-outlook-for-june-28-2019/

Note seasonality chart on the Russell 2000 Index

 

Observation

After the close yesterday, most money center banks successfully passed the stress tests set by the Federal Reserve and promptly raised their dividend/ increased their share buybacks. They are expected to respond to the upside at the opening today.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly mixed. Intermediate breakout: $WBA. Breakdowns: $EXC $CAG

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Shaw Communications $SWR $SWR.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $26.21 Cdn. and $19.22 U.S. completing a double top pattern following release of quarterly results.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 27th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 27th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 27th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richard’s Blog

Keiith asks, “What is Dow Theory currently saying about U.S. equity markets”? Following is a link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/dow-theory-signalling-change/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 5.00 to 67.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.71 to 52.56 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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10 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday June 28th 2019”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    The Canadian dollar $CDW broke out above its 18 month downtrendline of its falling channel in early June & ran up to 1st resistance then pulled back to the breakout downtrendline. Price has now rebounded in classic fashion through 1st resistance and is bumping up against 76.52 resistance. Trend indicators are turning back up but price must clear 76.52 first to suggest a run to 78.24. A falling U.S.$ and rebounding oil prices are positives for the CD$.

    $WTIC also broke out above major price resistance at $55 and has run up to strong price resistance at $60. Plus $60 is the Fib 50% retracement level of the Oct to Dec selloff. With the long term downtrendline at $61 price isn’t likely to clear these levels easily or quickly.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p00934255097&a=673066412

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84276913232&a=673066442

  2. CHR Says:

    Since I’m a layman in the market, can you suggest the best way to invest in GOLD, invest in stock or ETF? Thank you.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    As I add charts to Stockcharts there is a 500 chart limit with my subscription. So now and again I have to delete charts in order to add others. I go over all my charts looking for ones to delete and can’t help but find ones that someone mentioned or some analyst recommended and they have fallen to the point where they are close to worthless or have lost most of their value. Here is one more I’m about to delete along with dozens more over the years just like it. Can’t help but wonder why “investors” in stocks with charts like this didn’t just dump them when price closed below their entry price or below a price they felt they’d exit(before they bought them) but ignored it when broken and thought they’d just “wait a little longer” for price to “come back” which they rarely do. So that’s one more on the delete list. I’ll keep the Blackberry chart just as a reminder of what happens when a stock becomes the ‘Belle of the Ball’ and then falls out of bed trapping investors financially like rats in a cage.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=S.TO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91300674638&a=673066109

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BB.TO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79111559356&a=673066488

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    CHR

    Here is a chart of $GOLD “AND” SILVER in an ETF:CEF.to that trades on the $TSX. It also trades on the NYSE. It is roughly 1/2 and 1/2 both metals and is stored in a Canadian bank. The metals don’t tend to trade as strongly as the Precious metal stocks but is the real stuff without the gamble of a stock. Note the upper ratio chart that shows CEF.to underperforming the Gold STOCK ETF:XGD.to. That Gold stock ETF:XGD.to trades on the $TSX as well and is heavily traded and invested in as it has most of the heavy weight Gold stocks in it. There are other precious metal ETFs and stocks as well. On the NYSE the most recognized Gold Stock ETF is GDX.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CEF.TO&p=D&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87795671675&a=673066317

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27875096265&a=673066400

  5. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks again for posting the important charts like the Canadian dollar, WTIC, GDX, TNX…
    Your deleted chart of S.TO reminded me that I owned this at one time, many years ago, and sold it ~ $7. I don’t remember what I paid for it but I’m sure I sold at a loss but was relieved to be rid of it.
    I did buy some ECA.TO for a bounce. (I have more cash currently available on the Cdn side.) If it can clear the descending 20ema ~ 6.80, then it could bounce to the down trend line (might be ~ 7.25) from ~ 10.32 in April of this year. The ADX line has started to decline (so the down trend is lessening), with the red –DI approaching the +DI. When these two meet, it will be interesting to see which one is stronger. On the weekly, there are some bullish divergences and it seems to be showing a similar pattern to other times when it was extremely oversold and then had a sizeable bounce. Maybe Ana’s expectation that natgas will bounce from the bottom Bollinger band to the top will help this stock do the same thing…

    http://schrts.co/QrVyBgwf

    http://schrts.co/BVApGtKe

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    Yes the charts look like ECA definitely has potential. Here is the seasonality chart of it and the odds of ECA doing well in July is very high.

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=eca&compare=

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    RE:ECA.to. Being I have both CD$ and U.S.$ in my trading account I can trade either of them. ECA.to from what I see must re-clear the Dec low of $6.86 AND to confirm a nice run up price also needs to clear that downtrendline. But just clearing 6.86 and holding above that level would be bullish. The CD$ does affect $TSX stocks though which doesn’t help assessing technicals. Note ratio chart above.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p85737056931&a=673066225

  8. FishFat Says:

    I like the chart for CES Energy Solutions (CEU.to). There is an obvious downtrend that needs to penetrated, but several indicators are looking bullish. There is positive divergence of the MACD, Slow STO, and RSI. The 34d-EMA has flattened out. ADX is neutral, flattened out and sitting below both the DMI(-) and DMI (+). The RSI(21) has moved above the 50-level into bullish territory. The long M.MACD(50,200,20) has just made a bullish crossover. (Etc, Etc.) Just that annoying little downtrend to be overcome.
    http://schrts.co/tErrNMWG

  9. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Thanks for your ECA.TO charts and comments. Two things I hadn’t thought about: seasonality and the currency. Funny that this site starts with the premise of seasonality, whereas, it is an afterthought for me. Yet I still come here to see what is being discussed, LOL. When I first discovered the “seasonality effect”, I thought it had potential to really add an edge but I don’t find it to be that useful after all. I think that it is too easy a crutch to hang on to. When it works, it does seem to give an extra boost, but so often I hear the words: “it doesn’t work all the time”. I know that there is a statistical edge to seasonality over very long periods of time but how many of us trade that way? I know that Don and Jon Vialoux do and also Brooke Thackary who use it with success and there is Jeff Hirsch, the Almanac Trader in the U.S. By the way, he says that July 1st is the most bullish day of the year for the S&P:

    https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/

    I didn’t think about using a ratio chart for the ECA.TO: ECA. That is an interesting perspective. With the recent strength in the Canadian dollar, perhaps that will hurt the Canadian exporters but frankly that seems like a fundamental I just cannot wrap my head around. I know that they have operations in the U.S. as well as Canada so perhaps it evens out in the end.
    I do have a ratio chart of ECA.TO: XEG.TO and there seems to be a pattern of eventually returning to the 20ema, whether from the downside or the upside which coincides with sharp moves of ECA.TO up and down. Looks like it may be turning up now.

    FishFat,
    Thanks for posting your CES.TO chart, which looks great but it would be a distraction for me to start looking at another energy stock. I try to limit my exposure to this volatile sector.

    HAPPY CANADA DAY TO ALL!

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I’ve found when the CD$ rises the $TSX listed stock does not perform as well as the same stock on the NYSE. And visa versa. Here is the ECA.to again. See the ratio chart above and the $CDW directly below it.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p69597635466&a=673066225

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