Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday July 10th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 7 points in pre-opening trade. Investors are waiting for testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell at 10:00 AM EDT.
The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at U.S. 76.26 cents prior to a statement on monetary policy by the Bank of Canada to be released at 10:00 AM EDT. The Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%.
Bombardier (BBD.B $2.22) is expected to open lower after the company announced plans to lay off 550 employees at its railcar division in Thunder Bay.
![clip_image001[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/clip_image0015-1.png "clip_image001[5]")
Levi Strauss dropped $1.73 to $21.93 after reporting less than consensus second quarter earnings.
![clip_image002[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/clip_image0025-1.png "clip_image002[5]")
Comcast added $0.97 to $43.95 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold. Target price was raised to $54 from $44.
Deere dropped $2.35 to $161.00 after UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.
EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2019/07/09/stock-market-outlook-for-july-10-2019/
Note seasonality charts on Amazon and Job Openings.
StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15 AM EDT. No intermediate breakouts or breakdowns.
Editor’s Note: After 1015 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts included AMZN, EQR, AVB and FB. Breakdown: CHD.
National Bank $NA.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $63.62 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend
Trican Well Services $TCW.CA moved below $1.07 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Tis the season for National Bank $NA.CA to move higher!
Amazon $AMZN, one of the FAANG stocks moved above $1964.80 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Job Openings down by 6.6% in May, better than the 8.7% decline that is average for the month. $MACRO #Economy #JOLTS
Facebook $FB, another FAANG stock moved above $198.48 extending an intermediate uptrend
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 9th 2019
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 9th 2019
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 9th 2019
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Observation
Silver has a history of moving higher from early July to September.
Significant change in Technical Score
Score on Materials SPDRs dropped to -2 from 2 after units dropped below their 20 day moving average and relative strength changed to negative from neutral.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometer
![clip_image001[7]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/clip_image0017.png "clip_image001[7]")
The Barometer slipped 0.84 to 77.76 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometer
![clip_image002[7]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/clip_image0027-1.png "clip_image002[7]")
The Barometer added 2.56 to 62.39 yesterday. It changed to intermediate overbought from intermediate neutral on a move above 60.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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July 10th, 2019 at 2:49 am
Anyone else impressed with the Baltic Dry Index??
Wow! I can’t see the market tanking anytime soon. It looks
great. I can see a minor correction, is all. Because of the overbought
condition. Anyone else see anything different??
July 10th, 2019 at 9:12 am
Market Worries – It is quite easy to come up with a long list like a slow down in earnings (worry #1), manufacturing slowdown (see BASF earnings for example), trade wars, the Baltic Dry Index. The question is why the market keeps rising in spite of all of these worries. Money has been very defensively positioned. Bull markets come to an end when you are at a euphoria stage and we are no where even close to that.
Nasdaq about to hit a new all-time high this morning ,AMZN – great breakout, NFLX -stalled but trying again this morning (must clear 386), GOOGL – stalled with a headfake lower and now resuming higher above 50 and 200 day MA’s, SOXX and XLF- headfake lower and reversed direction to up
You can’t fight the tape and you can’t fight the FED. It’s a slow grind higher.
July 10th, 2019 at 10:16 am
Rocketdave
I agree with you. Coming up to an election it would be very unusual, unless they impeach trump or trade deals with China doesn’t get done. JMHO
July 10th, 2019 at 10:39 am
Correction – CNN Market Sentiment Index at 62 just crossed over into greed territory but not at all extreme.
July 10th, 2019 at 2:55 pm
The Canadian dollar $CDW is still bumping up against price resistance of 76.52 even with a more hawkish stance by the B.O.C. governor S.Poloz compared to the more dovish stance on rates by the U.S.Federal Reserve J.Powell. Price needs to clear this resistance to suggest higher prices. One might have thought this would have occurred with today’s announcements. So much for expectations………..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p88070971108&a=673066412
July 10th, 2019 at 4:32 pm
AMZN – Looks overbought and will be hard pressed to clear the all-time high at 2050 before having a pull-back. Needs to consolidate.
GOOGL – Looks like it decisively broke through 50 and 200 day MA’s and today got analyst endorsement on CNBC as the “trade of the day” with what was described as an excellent risk to reward potential. Looking for a clear $50 move to the $1190 range.
July 10th, 2019 at 7:19 pm
Break outs to all time highs of S&P 500 and NASDAQ today…markets moving higher until further notice.
S&P 500
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20236925969
NASDAQ
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p2503084613c
As indicated some months ago, when the second peak crossed above the first peak, forming a break-out move, specifically on the long term “weekly” chart, it is a BULLISH” signal. Could have been a “head fake” and reversed, but no, just a consolidation until a new break-out, as expected.
Some people called for a “Double Top” on the S&P 500…. like Larry Berman on BNN, but quite prematurely….a double top is NOT confirmed until the last formation crosses below the middle “trough”…until then it is something else.
A Double Top has 4 moves, “A” the first peak, “B” the trough”, “C” the second peak and finally the most important, “D” the confirmation when the line crosses below “B” trough. Many people are premature seeing “Double Tops” everywhere….it must always be confirmed.
In any case, the US economy is going full tilt, job numbers are at 50 year highs, no inflation, accommodative FED….and lots of people calling for a recession…. gotta be BULLISH.
As the great John Templeton once said: ” Bull markets are born in times of maximum pessimism; grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria”.
The market always climb a wall of worry…..
July 10th, 2019 at 8:20 pm
Dave/ab
I don’t think Trump is going to get impeached and the deal with China is taking way too long. If there’s a deal, I don’t think it will be a good one IMO. But notice the mining companies? A lot of them seem to be basing. Keep an eye on that, it may take us by surprise and shoot up soon.
July 11th, 2019 at 9:36 am
Hi Canuck2004,
Thanks for your insights. As an investor, would you recommend people commit meaningful new money to the market – or just hold current positions?
Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.