Tech Talk for Thursday July 11th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday July 11th

U.S. equity index futures moved higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 4 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures slipped following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 222, 000 versus 222,000 last week. Actual was 209,000. Consensus for the June Consumer Price Index was unchanged versus a gain of 0.1% in May. Actual was an increase of 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for the June Consumer Price Index was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in May. Actual was an increase of 0.3%.

Delta Airlines added $1.23 to $60.67 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings. The company also increased its dividend and raised guidance.

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Costco added $0.83 to $272.22 after Stifel Nicolaus raised its target price to $289 from $261.

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Health Care Providers moved higher after the White House withdrew its proposal to eliminate rebates from government drug plans.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/07/10/stock-market-outlook-for-july-11-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Gold futures, Crude Oil futures and Crude Oil days of Supply.

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

NASDAQ Composite Index $COMPQ moved above 8176.08 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $CMCSA $AXP $INTU. No breakdowns

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Bank of Montreal $BMO.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $101.13 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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‘Tis the season for strength in Bank of Montreal $BMO.CA to fall!

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Suncor $SU.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $42.27 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Cenovus Energy $CVE.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $12.09 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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BMO Equal Weight Energy ETF $ZEO.CA moved above $42.84 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: Energy stocks on both sides of the border responded to a 4.5% increase in the price of WTI crude oil.

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Inter-Pipeline $IPL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $22.26 and $22.27 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Cameco $CCO.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $14.27 completing a double bottom pattern.

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SunLife Financial $SLF.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $55.43 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Pembina Pipelines $PPL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $50.14 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Walt Disney $DIS, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $142.63 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 10th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 10th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 10th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Significant Changes in Technical Score Yesterday

Technical score for Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped to -4 from 2 after short term momentum indicators moved lower, the Average moved below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages and strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned to Negative from Neutral. The Average responded to higher crude oil prices.

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Technical score for TSX Energy Index changed to 0 from -6 in response to higher crude oil prices: Relative strength changed to Neutral from Negative, the Index moved above its 20 day moving average and short term momentum indicators (Stochastics, RSI, MACD) turned higher from oversold levels.

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.44 to 78.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.56 to 62.39 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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10 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday July 11th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    FOMO now on.

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Larry/ON

    FOMO has cost investors and traders more money in losses than most anything else. A person needs to have confidence in what they are doing financially and not try to join the herd of wild eyed bulls talking about markets going to the moon. They ultimately lose and there is no way around that. No one is missing anything as it’s just like going fishing. The fish are always there and anyone can take their share anytime it’s safe and suitable to do so.

  3. bruce Says:

    ron/larry
    re FOMO….the AA!! survey for july 10th says pessimism has dropped below its historical average for the 1st time since early may……bulls are up to 33.6% neutral 38.9 and bears are down to 27.5%

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    RON/BC – I don’t disagree with you. You just don’t know when the uptrend ends and all you can do is look for signs and overextended valuations and too long run-ups and take profits bit by bit.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    #3 & #4 Thanks.

    Yes it’s always a slippery slope to walk. Overall I just look for patterns mainly and extremes in sentiment. Here is the XIU.to with SPY overlaid. SPY is far more of a drama queen so XIU.to does tend to trend better without the same drama. Price now is trapped between 24 and 25 for the last 3 months. Nothing bearish about the pattern or technicals other than the loss of momentum which is normal when consolidating in a range. Bottom line is price needs to clear AND hold above $25 to suggest higher prices. Another test of 24 would be nice as well.

    The $SPX cleared a double top but the world is watching to see if it can clear 3000 much like when the financial media long ago talked about DOW 10000 with the hats etc. Technicals are positive for the most part with all moving averages rising and above each other. Price does need to hold above the double top breakout point of 2940 area to confirm that is now support, not resistance anymore. A break below 2940 would typically see a test of 2815 support which is also its 200ema. Note price is now 200 points above its 200ema just like last late April before is sold off to its 200ema again. Price always comes back home to the 200ema at some point and right now price is stretched out the same once again. So while things look positive be prepared for a pullback as they always come when least expected.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46966562832&a=675170205

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09312601915&a=673066103

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    AMZN – May be starting to correct from overbought. RSI over 70. Hit a new high and is now trading down

  7. Larry/ON Says:

    I listened to RON/BC and sold more than I planned today and particularly AMZN. That is the guarantee that the market moves a lot higher tomorrow.

  8. rick Says:

    FOMO is for traders .
    Long term investors ( 100 % invested in stocks) are not = Feeling Of Missing Out .
    Because they bought 5-10 years ago , or more ; and they are feeling good .
    Long time ago they learned about TINA = There Is No Alternative than stocks.

  9. Kam Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Sounds like we are close to April 2019 end again when few here start talking about going long and people ready to put money again into the market 🙂 Humans and sentiments, nvr change. We got about 200 points shave that time if someone is counting.

    Here is What EW Analyst thinks:
    if “buy the dip” was always so strong as many believe . . then we would NEVER have corrections. Try not to think linearly folks. We are FINALLY at MAJOR overhead resistance we have been noting for several years now . . . let’s stay on our toes and keep an open mind.

    “For now, it seems the market is finally setting up to strike the 3011-45 SPX target we have had for several years. And, yes, I still expect us to strike a major top in this region. But, while I maintain such an expectation, we still need to see the market breakdown below 2950/60SPX to begin that confirmation process.”

    So a reminder again folks. Keep your positions small in this area. Let us go one way or the other before we go pedal to the metal.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Kam
    Yes,the Rah,Rah,Rah crowd always comes out when prices are at or near highs. Just can’t help themselves as you suggest. Good contrary indicator actually. Perhaps they think that the market will relist their favourite stocks like Nortel and others like it. Here is another Belle of the Ball stock that many wish would bounce back so they could get their money back. There is a long list of darling stocks just like this. And any true “Investor” would have had a ton of stocks just like these. After all they were the best of the best at the time………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BB.TO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79111559356&a=673066488

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