Tech Talk for Friday July 19th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday July 19th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 4 points in pre-opening trade.

Microsoft jumped $4.08 to $140.50 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings. JP Morgan raised its target price to $155 from $145.

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Boeing gained $7.68 to $368.79 despite announcing a $4.9 billion write off. Boeing also announced plans to relaunch its 737 Max aircraft before the end of the year.

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American Express slipped $0.41 to $127.99 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter earnings.

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Schlumberger (SLB $38.78) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/07/18/stock-market-outlook-for-july-19-2019/

Note seasonality charts on the U.S. Dollar Index and the Philly Fed Index

Observations

Weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETN triggered a surge in gold and gold equities.

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Inflation protected notes (TIPS) broke to a new high.

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Couche Tard $ATD.B, a TSX 60 stock moved below $80.75 setting an intermediate downtrend following an analyst downgrade.

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Sugar ETN broke below $20.49 to a 10 month low extending an intermediate downtrend.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Philadelphia Fed just crushed expectations with its manufacturing survey. Headline print for July: +21.8 versus +4.5 est. Non-seasonally adjusted, the result was +8.8, indicating expansionary conditions at a time of year when contraction is the norm. Average for July is -6.7. $MACRO #Economy #Manufacturing #PhillyFedimage

Increase in jobless claims through the middle of July, the average factory shutdown period, firmly below average, perhaps indication that factories are remaining open during this typically slower timeframe. $MACRO #Employment

Oil & Gas Explorers ETF $XOP moved below $24.58 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Slightly bearish. Intermediate breakouts: $EBAY $KLAC. Breakdowns: $NFLX $KMI $SNA $CCI

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Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts included XLNX, PM, ZBH, TXF, MHK, SRE and ATO. Breakdowns included ILMN and MAC

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Enerplus $ERF.CA moved below $8.75 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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S&P/TSX Energy iShares $XEG.CA moved below $8.73 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Editor’s Note: Add Vermillion Energy to the list of Canadian energy equity breakdowns.

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New Flyer Industries $NFI.CA moved below $30.91 and $30.88 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Gold ETN $GLD moved above $135.55 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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‘Tis the season for gold and gold stocks to move higher! $GLD $XGD.CA $GDX $GDXJ

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More Canadian gold producer equity breakouts: $SMF.CA $YRI.CA

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S&P/TSX Materials iShares $XMA.CA moved above $14.08 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: XMA has approximately a 65% weight in Canadian gold equities

Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 18th 2019

spx july 19

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 18th 2019

crb july 19

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 18th 2019

xlk july 19

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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9 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday July 19th 2019”

  1. Ana Says:

    $SPX Futures

    Hanging by a thread!

    https://invst.ly/bc0ik

  2. Ana Says:

    This chart is the daily chart.

    https://invst.ly/bc0o6

    This chart is the weekly chart.

    https://invst.ly/bc0nr

    This is the monthly chart.

    https://invst.ly/bc0mg

    Added the 4 sma line in. Market just does not want to tumble.

    Have one short position that is hurting. Just going to wait that one out.

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    MU – double bottom, neckline break, retest, second break higher to new levels. RSI overbought but SOXX not overbought

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    NVDA – Similar double bottom over extended period Dec/18 and Jun/19 but never cleared Apr/19 high. NVDA however is now sticking above the 200day MA for first time since Nov/18. It broke the downtrend line from the Oct/18 high. Not overbought yet. Semis look to be going higher so we should see SOXX retest the April high.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    According to C.O.T. report numbers Speculators have extreme long positions in $GOld. That tends to see a selloff in precious metals and their related stocks.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48853027861&a=673066318

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    Treacherous whipsawing market.

  7. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Maybe a sell off in gold or at least consolidation will relieve the overbought condition and provide a better entry. There is that big gap on your GDX chart ~ 24. If that gets filled, it would also test the breakout above 23.70 and the 50 EMA.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    Yes that’s the plan alright re:#7. What I “should do” is what I used to do when working full time. That’s put in a Buy on a Stop Limit above the breakout point. Then when I got home I had a fill that was likely in the black already. Too busy now with golf, my partner and looking at condos. Might as well be working. I can do the same thing though with the same type of order at or near support such as XGD.to at $24.
    We’ll see as it (if) pulls back. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see price test 25.25 area and reverse back up again to new highs. No guarantee that gap below will fill this time around. The old theory that gaps always get filled doesn’t say ‘when’ though as it can be much later. Will have to see how oversold it is on a pullback and be ready. If it’s going to do the typical August 2nd bottom the bad news on $GOLD will be loud and clear with traders exiting their positions on some b.s. news story. Looking forward to it…..

    This $Gold chart ‘could’ also rally up to $1550 resistance too before selling off. See the Flag and FlagPole? They tend to make two in a row. Some short covering and fresh buying could accomplish that quickly. I guess you didn’t buy JNUG. Neither did I. Too wild for me to ride……….

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13208023309&a=673066105

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNUG&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96653484083&a=673275761

  9. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    I assume you meant GDX re #8. I agree, it may not fill the gap any time soon but 25.25 would be a good entry on pullback. It was another resistance area before the recent break out. Buy on a Stop Limit is rarely talked about and yet it is a very effective entry method. Thanks for reminder. Also agree that JNUG is too wild or any of the double or triple ETFs– a person would have to stay glued to the screen if trading those. Silver, in all its forms is also too volatile for me. I think the gold stocks, whether XGD.TO or GDX provide enough movement to capture a good portion of a move in gold. And like you say, the stocks should outperform the metal if it really is a bull market.

    I see your flagpole and will look for another one in the $1550 area. The whole world will be watching the FED interest rate decision on July 31st and if there is disappointment with whatever they decide, that could be the catalyst for a pullback (sell the news) in gold and the market in general. The idea that gold and the stock market are negatively correlated in not true.

    http://schrts.co/cZxgvXGA

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