Tech Talk for Thursday August 1st 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday August 1st

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the Weekly Jobless Claims report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase to 213,000 from revised 207,000 last week. Actual was 215,000.

Shopify advanced $23.69 to $341.57 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings. The company also raised guidance.

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Yum Brands added $4.63 to $117.15 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.

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Archer Daniel Midland slipped $0.54 to $40.54 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter earnings.

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Verizon gained $0.69 to $55.96 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/07/31/stock-market-outlook-for-august-1-2019/

Note seasonality charts on S&P 500 Index and Canadian GDP.

 

Jon Vialoux on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call Tonight

Market outlook

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-market-outlook~1742714

Past picks

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-past-picks~1742747

Top Picks

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-top-picks~1742785

 

 

Responses to the Federal Reserve news at 2:00 PM EST

The Federal Reserve reduced the Fed Fund rate by 0.25% as expected at 2:00 PM EDT

U.S. equity indices dropped sharply.

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U.S. Dollar ETN soared

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Long term Treasury bond prices moved higher

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Gold prices moved lower

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Volatility spiked

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Apple $AAPL moved above $214.48 on higher than consensus quarterly results and positive guidance extending an intermediate uptrend.

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ADP $ADP, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $170.45 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Solar ETF $TAN moved above $29.38 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Corn ETN $CORN moved below $16.09 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Soybean ETN $SOYB moved below $15.24 setting an intermediate downtrend

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Canadian energy stocks strongly recovering from deeply oversold levels on higher crude oil and natural gas prices. $ARX.CA

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Canada GDP up 1.6% (NSA) in May, stronger than the 1.0% increase that is average for this time of year. $MACRO #CAD #CDNecon

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#Oil inventories now lower on the year following another substantial drawdown in the previous

week. $USO $CL_F $XLE $XOP

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Symantec $SYMC, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $21.56 setting an intermediate downtrend

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U.S. Dollar Index at 98.49 following Fed news moved above 98.26 to a two year high extending an intermediate uptrend. $USD.

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 31st 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 31st 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 31st 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 7.60 to 68.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and is trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer eased 0.68 to 60.78 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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6 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday August 1st 2019”

  1. KC Says:

    Morning Ron/BC,

    I am very tempted to put in a buy for VET.TO this morning. Was really hoping for your thoughts on it before I do. Jon Vialoux made some interesting comments on BNN last night as well.

    Thanks,
    KC

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    KC – I did day trades on energy the past two days and I am glad I was out before yesterday’s close. Today it’s looking like a dead cat bounce with energy reversing back down big time. You need better confirmation of a break of the downtrend. We could be at bottom but not confirmed. You could take a partial position and just put it away. I am keeping an eye looking for a second wave of buying on both the broader energy sector and VET.TO. If everything holds the lows we put in and a second wave starts I would have greater confidence holding energy. I watched Jon Vialoux’s video and yeah he sounds right. As I type this XOP is down 4.43% today.

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    SHOP.TO – Going for $500. New all-time high. Gotta love it
    MSFT – What a rebound after shaking out weak hands yesterday down to the bottom of the Bollinger Band up 3% plus today. Must have core holding that you never sell.
    AMZN – Not a bad entry point now for a partial position.
    Market – I would beware a modest correction coming but it could be weeks from now. It’s a game of chicken right now. I will stay min 80% invested but never put on leverage now until we have a correction.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    VET.to broke major long term support of $25 which is very bearish and then plunged to $21.94 clearly following through on the breakdown. That $25 breakdown point will now be where short sellers will short it on a rebound so you’d need to keep that in mind if you bought stock in this low $20 area. See the breakdown below the double bottom at $35 in October and how that served as a resistance top in April this year! Same thing can occur again which is typical. Price is very oversold but can remain oversold and continue to selloff. On the plus side price was $8 below its 200ema and even the December selloff only saw price $5 below its 200ema so while it sold off harder this time it is still a very long ways from its 200ema. Another plus is price is at $23 which is higher than the $21.94 level hit a couple of days ago. And that’s with a much lower $WTIC price today as Crude is down sharply today. The key price levels are for price to clear yesterdays high of 24.01 “OR” drop below 21.94 as price is presently trapped in this $2 range. But even clearing 24.01 there’s only one dollar to strong resistance at $25. Right now price is near the lows of the day even with a strong stock market,so no one is chasing after this stock presently. This is catching a falling knife trade for sure but is very oversold in all ways and stretched far below its 200ema. So if you are a buy and hold type of trader a partial position could be acceptable.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VET.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36081743293&a=673066281

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=VET.TO&compare=

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    Trump may have just pushed the market into a correction at a time when sentiment was vulnerable. No one is safe from his tweets. If it recovers from his 10% Sept 1st tariff threat it would be a remarkable sign of strength. You can’t trade in this type of environment and have to think longer term.

  6. KC Says:

    Ron/BC, Larry/ON,

    Appreciate all the great comments. Thank much for your efforts and time. I did take up a partial position in VET and will watch it closely.

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