Tech Talk for Friday August 2nd 2019

Daily Reports Add comments

Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 2nd

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 14 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were moved lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for U.S. July Non-farm Payrolls was a drop to 165,000 from 224,000 in June. Actual was a slip to 164,000. Consensus for the July Unemployment Rate was a slip to 3.6% from 3.7% in June. Actual was unchanged at 3.7%. Consensus for July Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.3% . Consensus for June U.S. Trade Deficit was $54.60 billion versus $55.50 billion in May. Actual was $55.20 billion.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at U.S. 75.51 cents following release of the June Canadian Trade Balance report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a deficit of $400 million versus a surplus of $760,000 in May. Actual was a surplus of $140 million.

Open Text (OTEX $56.23 Cdn). is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.

clip_image001[1]

Restaurant Brands International (QSR $96.32 Cdn.) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.

clip_image002[1]

Exxon Mobil added $1.74 to $74.20 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.

clip_image003[1]

Air Canada (AC $44.98) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

clip_image004[1]

 

EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/08/01/stock-market-outlook-for-august-2-2019/

Note seasonality charts on 10 year Treasury Note futures, Gold futures and U.S. Construction Spending.

 

Observations

The 1:00 PM EDT Trump tweet about additional tariffs on China effective September 1st flipped equity prices from positive to negative.

U.S. equity indices plunged:

clip_image001

Commodity prices other than gold virtually collapsed.

clip_image002

Crude oil and energy prices moved sharply lower. Crude oil recorded the largest one day drop in four years.

clip_image003

Oil service stocks and related ETFs were particularly hard hit.

clip_image004

The VIX Index spiked

clip_image005

Gold prices responded to the spike in VIX.

clip_image006

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Bombardier $BBD.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $1.96 extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image007

Teck Resources $TECK.B.CA $TECK , a TSX 60 stock moved below $26.15 Cdn. and $19.37 U.S. extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image008

BMO Global Base Metals ETF $XBM.CA moved below $10.87 extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image009

Total Construction Spending in the US up 2.6% (NSA) in June, weaker than the average increase for the month of 6.8%. $MACRO #Economy

clip_image011

Activision Blizzard $ATVI, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $49.83 completing a long term base building pattern.

clip_image012

Long term Treasury iShares moved above $134.29 extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image013

7-10 year Treasury iShares $IEF moved above $110.40 extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image014

 

Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 1st 2019

clip_image016

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 1st 2019

clip_image018

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 1st 2019

clip_image020

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

clip_image021

The Barometer plunged 13.00 to 55.00 yesterday. It changed from intermediate overbought to intermediate neutral on a move below 60.00 and is now trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

clip_image022

The Barometer dropped 4.14 to 57.33 yesterday. It changed from intermediate overbought to intermediate neutral on a move below 60.00 and has turned down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



14 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday August 2nd 2019”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a Weekly chart of the $SPX. Price is breaking below the 2940 level which was the September 2018 high and double top in April and was finally cleared in July. A Friday close below this level would be bearish if 2940 can’t hold as support. Perhaps it’s time to test that long term uptrendline and 200ema again. It always does sooner or later……

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63060875093&a=674087499

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    RON/BC – I’m watching trading. SP500 50 day is a little further down at 2927. SP500 and Nasdaq are both trying to hold and a bid crept into the market after the SP500 overshot slightly to the downside. I like Keith Richards expression “How thick is your pencil” when drawing a support line. Often the market overshoots support and spooks investors and then rallies back after fooling them. It’s 50/50 right now with no panic. Take a look at QQQ. It’s late to be a seller. You could make a case for putting some in now and seeing what happens but keeping some powder dry in case we go down to the 200dayMA.

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    MSFT – I’ve been buying below 136 but still keeping some powder dry.

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    MU – Big contrarian bid going on. UP 1.74%. This is the most exposed semi to the China trade dispute. Why is it going up? I’d say that maybe a lot of money wants to come in and the sell-off may be short lived. SP500 now forming a nice hammer for the day with 15 min to go.

  5. Mary Says:

    Larry/ON

    I would very much appreciate if you could post one of your charts. Gold is shining, kudos to those who made the trade. Appreciate seeing your chart. I am not a member of SC.

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    Mary. I’m a cheap guy who doesn’t subscribe to Stockcharts.com where I can draw trendlines and post and RON/BC is more experienced than me in that department. I think what I would say is I have seen enough Trump tweets and market knee-jerk reactions and I am getting tired of it. We could get some positive trade news a week later and everything is all roses. Buy at the 50 day and buy even more at the 200 day and only buy the best quality stocks or the best index ETF which is QQQ. The market wants a revisit of the 200 day MA between now and October but it’s not certain that we will actually get it because there is too much sideline money.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    $GOLD broke out above $1370 major resistance for the first time in 5.5 years. After a rally this price point should serve as solid support. Next resistance is $1550. As this long term chart shows the rally has only retraced less than 1/2 what it lost from 2011 to late 2015. The $GOLD stock ETF:GDX has just recently been outperforming $GOLD which is what a precious metal bull market tends to see. (see ratio chart above) Price might rally to $1550 resistance first but odds favour a pullback to the major support area 1st at $1370.
    And the Gold stock ETF:GDX broke out above $25 resistance with next resistance at $30.82 which is the 2016 high. Price is now trapped between the two prices and could stay there for some time as well. The $25 area should now serve as solid support.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13208023309&a=673066105

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54834868422&a=673066134

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Still_Learning NTR

    I re-tried the left hand low chipping and pitching and it worked like a charm. I did switch from my Pitching Wedge which I never have liked to my 9 iron. I even tried it successfully in a sand trap!!! Gotta love it. Then I thought why not try putting left hand low again and see how that goes. I made 35 ft and 25ft and a couple other 15 to 20 foot putts with it which blew me away. I wished I had a video of it to keep. I went by myself on a quiet day with no one behind me so no interference and lots of practice with multiple balls. So thanks for the reminder and I don’t think I’ll be switching techniques again anytime soon. And a guy here in my condo building told me he makes clubs so I’m going over to see him soon. He recommended a two ball putter that he makes so I’ll buy one of those from him and see how that works along with my left hand low style. Things are looking up………………

  9. still_learning Says:

    Ron/BC NTR

    That’s great to hear! Gives us other ‘hackers’ hope …smile. Just be prepared for the inevitable ‘pullback’ the next time you go out on the course? Some days are ‘golf’, other days are ‘flog’.

    Bernie

  10. FishFat Says:

    Here is a weekly chart of the price of gold relative to the Canadian Dollar. The curve is erratic so I smoothed it with a 8-week Simple Moving Average. I use the chart to give me an idea of how much the Canadian miners (that report earnings in Canadian dollars) are likely to be benefiting from a rise in the price of gold.
    http://schrts.co/EdGYqnxh

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Still_Learning NTR

    Yes,I know what you mean. This last time out I was very pleased with ‘most’ of my shots. And I know next time I might have a hard time hitting the ball straight. But this last time I was alone with no one yaking in my ear and no one behind me ‘waiting’ to tee off. I do get frustrated by golfers waiting for me/us to finish up on the green so what I’ve done recently is sit down on the next tee’s bench and tell these eager beavers that catch up to go ahead and play through. Then I can forget about hurrying up. Like most things we need to try and duplicate the circumstances around the tasks that proved successful. So I’m spending more time checking each step so I can hopefully do what I did previously that worked well. I went to Golf Town and tried out the two ball putter and wasn’t impressed. Then I tried out every type of putter there for some time. Didn’t find one that jumped out at me as exceptional. So for now I’ll just continue to use my white hot Odyssey putter and left hand low for the stability. But it would be nice to find one that ‘feels like’ a winner each time. Perhaps that’s a mental thing one has to deal with. I still plan to see the guy in my condo that makes clubs and perhaps he’ll have a magic one that fits me,lol. Funny how when you try something that works great it just feels right.

  12. Larry/ON Says:

    David Burrows Jul 25th Market Update – He will be on BNN 12pm Tues
    Burrows is informative by taking historical data from previous cycles and applying it to where we are at. He looks at the big picture.

    https://barometercapital.ca/insights/blog/david-burrows-market-update-july-2019

  13. still_learning Says:

    Ron/BC NTR

    Putting is such an individual thing. I still use an old Ray Cook Golden Nugget, a simple blade putter …don’t remember where I got it but it was a long time ago. I have good days and bad days putting. I like my putter because it has a nice feel to it for judging the proper weight on the longer putts. For me, it’s key to avoid the 3 putts from longer distances and I’m ok with just the occasional 1 putt from shorter (6-12ft) distances.
    I dislike the 2-ball and 3-ball putters. To me, they are akin to a ‘toaster’ on the end of a stick …smile.

    Bernie

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Still_Learning
    Well being I know very little about the clubs unlike yourself that makes them I think I will learn a lot from the guy in my condo building that builds them. I want advise on length and angle etc that fits my height and arm length along with where exactly a person’s hands need to be. It’s all relative I’m sure just like shooting handguns. I agree with the two ball putter analysis. Thought it might feel ok but it was like you said. If I could make a putter I’d put a piece of putter face material the size and shape of a golf ball on the front of the putter. Might be less surfaces to deflect the golf ball left or right. Just like shooting the slightest left or right movement will send the ball either way rather than straight ahead.

Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in