Tech Talk for Friday August 9th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 9th

U.S. equity index futures moved lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 16 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded to continuing weakness to the Chinese Yuan.

Index futures moved slightly lower following release of the U.S. July Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for the July Producer Price Index was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in June. Actual was a decline of 0.1%

The Canadian Dollar plunged 0.46 to 75.34 following release of the July Canadian Employment Report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 15,000 versus a decline of 2,200 in June. Actual was a drop of 24,200. Consensus for the July Unemployment Rate was unchanged from June at 5.5%. Actual was an increase to 5.7%.

Uber dropped $3.44 to $39.53 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter revenues and a higher than consensus low. Wedbush lowered its target price to $58 from $65.

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Activision Blizzard (ATVI $49.33) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus quarterly revenues and earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/08/08/stock-market-outlook-for-august-9-2019/

Don Vialoux on Michael Campbell’s Money Talks

Listen to Michael’s weekly show tomorrow (Saturday) on CKNW at 8:30-10:00 AM Vancouver time (11:30-1:00 PM Toronto time). Focus is on equity investing for the remainder of 2019. Following is a link:

https://globalnews.ca/radio/cknw/?gref=cknw

 

StockTwits released yesterday@EquityClock

Saputo $SAP.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $40.62 completing a base building pattern.

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Inter-Pipeline $IPL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $22.44 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Nickel ETN $JJNTF moved above $19.56 to a 5 year high extending an intermediate uptrend. Good for nickel producer stocks (e.g. VALE). Was discussed this morning on BNNBloomberg

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Another abnormally weak June report: Wholesale Sales down 5.6% (NSA), a negative divergence compared to the 1.8% increase that is average for the month. $MACRO #Economy

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U.S. Real Estate iShares $IYR moved above $91.22 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Units are responding to declining long term interest rates

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Trader’s Corner

Editor’s Note: Note the upward change in short term momentum for a wide variety of equity markets, commodities and sectors.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 8th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 8th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 8th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richard’s Blog

Following is a link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/checking-under-the-hood/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer jumped 14.00 to 50.80 yesterday. It changed to intermediate neutral from intermediate oversold.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 4.06 to 54.27 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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11 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday August 9th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Another Trump Trade Tweet Scare – The panic ensues, the market drops and then it slowly climbs back as the smart money buys the dip as the weak hands give their shares away. There is no reason to panic. We are consolidating at the 50day MA forming an inside bar. We need a reasonable close. The rise in WTI does help the market. The sense I am getting is that sideline money keeps coming in on any dip.

  2. Kam Says:

    Hi Folks,

    Last month 2-3 times I posted about market at cross roads so keep positions light and let it decide if it wants to run past 3050 or break below 2950ish. It did and what a lightning strike this Monday. It was one of those days when XIV was killed last year in Feb. VXX was up 25% in after hours and if XIV was still alive, It might have been liquidated again.

    The Analysts I follow,one of them gave a bottom signal that after hours so I bought MES and MNQ both 3 contracts each and sold one of each yesterday and holding 2 per side. Also sold VXX short just 200 shares at $31.80 that AH and bought one yesterday at $27 and still holding other. Bought and sold SVXY too. Overall have been a very good week and pretty much lost nothing on the elevator down.
    This happened due to the almost no positions I have since we had fed day and market start tanking with all the warning for last month.

    Now very good chance is that this is not it. We might be completing a B wave and we go below this Monday for a C wave and have to see if it set a positive divergence and go up again.
    I doubt too many bought the bottom too with all this fear and so called money sitting on the side. It just sits. That Money will get another chance and it will be too scared to get in regardless.

    Hope most of you didn’t get caught up in this bullishness we had on this site last month which I and RON/BC talked about. This time it was different? NO! 🙂
    Adios Amigos

  3. FishFat Says:

    On the weekly chart for the iShares Capped Energy ETF:XEG.to, a bullish Hammer candlestick has formed at support. There is positive divergence on several indicators and a turning point may be at hand. But there has been no definitive turn yet and I am reluctant to bite as the ADX is bearish and the 26-week EMA is in steep decline. Nonetheless, it is worth keeping an eye on and there may be potential worth investigating in the various components of this sector?
    http://schrts.co/NwhijbEp

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat

    Odd that you mention XEG.to. I’ve been watching if for some time now. While the Gold stocks and other markets have rallied too far for me to jump on this XEG.to is looking like it could reverse here. I posted the long term chart some time ago mentioning this double bottom. And that double bottom did breakdown with a nose poke below. Markets love to fake out traders with breakdowns and breakouts with a nose poke over the line and everyone thinks they have a guaranteed trade in that breakout or breakdown direction but get whipsawed when price reverses again. This may be just one of those times. No absolute signal yet but notice how price didn’t stay below the double bottom breakdown for long. I’m watching a 60 minute chart that can’t be posted here but clear short term resistance is 8.18 which is the July low with a downtrendline from July 15th at about 8.30. The downtrendline from April is at about 8.60. So if it can clear the July low of 8.18 that would suggest a test of 8.60 for starters. I’ve been looking for an excuse to pick this up so your post reminding me of it just might convince me to pay closer attention.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=60&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20518902320&a=673547760

  5. Paula Says:

    FishFat,
    As you say: “there may be potential worth investigating in the various components of this sector”. I am watching CNQ and SU, both of which have outperformed XEG over the long term. If I had to pick one stock in this sector currently, it would be CNQ, which has been outperforming SU this year:

    http://schrts.co/wiwcdHcZ

    I am also wary of the still rising ADX, but it is at a point where it has topped out previously, as well possibly having a bullish divergence. But there may be limited up side with the descending 20ema not too far away (~ 33.15). So there are pros and cons, but worth watching for a bottoming formation.

    Ron/BC,
    As you have pointed out SU and CNQ make up about 45% of XEG. So they dictate the movement. Here is an old chart of MICK/NV (I wonder what happened to him), which indicates the dismal underperformance of XEG over the long term. Actually, on his chart, SU looks the best:

    http://schrts.co/wiwcdHcZ

    I know you don’t care, especially for a short term trade but both CNQ and SU currently have dividend yields over 4%.

  6. Paula Says:

    Try again on MICK/NV’S chart:

    http://schrts.co/UkJqyaWa

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I think Mick/NV just wanted to deal with dividend stocks. I know I often think I should chuck all these xxxxxxx charts out the window and focus on condos. That’s what I’m doing right now and have meetings with financial centers looking for creative ways to access money. First meeting tomorrow morning. A realtor told me she’d list my condo I bought 15 months ago for $100K more than I paid for it. There are costs buying and selling but it’s still way better than horsing around with stocks and ETFs.Here is XEG.to showing the double bottom. The 2nd chart is one year and has potential for a bounce to 8.60 even if the downtrend continues. Tempting…..

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85480037048&a=679658864

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39129037746&a=681752129

    By the way Louise Yamada??????? I can’t believe she’s still around. And I thought I was old….I did like the lady and what she had to say….smart cookie. Been a long time since I heard her. I guess she used to be on CNBC along with others that were well known. Like Art Cashin. Maybe I should start watching CNBC again.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/louise-yamada-i-m-negative-on-gold-but-see-some-upside-for-oil~1390388

  8. FishFat Says:

    re: XEG.to
    Ron/BC
    Honestly, it was one of your posts a while back that got me watching ETF:XEG.to. But, I have never bought it. Buying any ETF’s makes me feel a bit like playing poker without know all my cards. Of course, that is the wrong way to think about it ETF’s. But, I just can’t shake the feeling. This time might be different. I had a look at the 60-min chart you mentioned. It is interesting and should provide be a more timely way to catch any turn.

    Paula:
    I will check-out both CNQ and SU. I know TD Waterhouse likes the cash flow potential of CNQ, not sure what their thoughts are on SU. Both companies are well run and the dividends are large enough to attract and hold a lot of conventional investors. A couple of good ideas to start with, thanks. And yes where is Mick/NV?

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat

    I prefer ETFs as if one stock screws up it doesn’t trash the ETF as its a basket of stocks. Similar to buying an Index ETF only not as good as that. But any hot shot can downgrade or badmouth a stock they shorted and the holders of the stocks lose as it sells off. Just remember Nortel used to be the bell of the ball and accounted for 40% of the $TSX. Even it got trashed all the way down like so many other so called top quality stocks. At least an ETF is a basket of them.

  10. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    You do seem to have a talent for making money on real estate. It will be interesting to hear about your achievements on that front.
    Yes, Louise Yamada is the best! Thanks for the link but I think it is quite out of date. The levels they are talking about are not current. That is one of the problems I have with BNN. I can’t figure out what date this video was created. Is it just me?
    And Art Cashin, what an incredible amount of knowledge/wisdom he has.

    Fishfat, yes it does seem strange to me that you are so hesitant about ETFs but I agree with being hesitant on XEG. This is one of the few cases where I prefer to buy individual stocks.

  11. Bernie Says:

    Paula,

    Re: #10
    If you click on the Show info “i” option on the bar at the bottom of the video clip it shows the date it was created. This one was from May 9, 2018.

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