Tech Talk for Tuesday August 13th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday August 13th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 5 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the July U.S. Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.3%.

Gold advanced another $17.60 to $1534.80 on growing trade tensions.

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McDonalds gained $0.35 to $217.51 after MKM Partners initiated coverage with a Buy rating.

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Advanced Auto Parts dropped $12.16 to $130.00 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter sales and earnings.

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DR Horton (DHI $46.99), KB Homes (KBH $26.32) and PulteGroup (PHM $31.50) are expected to open higher after SunTrust initiated coverage with a Buy rating.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/08/12/stock-market-outlook-for-august-13-2019/

Note seasonality chart on Corn futures.

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

VALE $VALE moved below support at $11.22. Extension of weakness in base metal stocks!

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Caterpillar $CAT, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below$117.83 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responding to trade war with China.

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OOOPs!! Argentina’s currency and stock market "fell off the cliff" as political uncertainty spikes. $ARGT.

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S&P Retail SPDRs $XRT moved below $39.39 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 12th 2019

spx aug 13

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 12th 2019

crb aug 13

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 12th 2019

xlk aug 13

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Technical Scoop

Thank you to David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com for a link to the following weekly report:

http://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Currency-wars-plunging-markets-soaring-gold-inverting-curve-negative-yields.pdf

 

Hap Sneddon on BNNBloomberg’s Market Call Yesterday

Links to:

 

Market Outlook

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call/hap-sneddon-s-market-outlook~1751662

Past Picks

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/hap-sneddon-s-past-picks~1751724

Top Picks

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call/hap-sneddon-s-top-picks~1751725

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

TSX Momentum Barometer

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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6 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday August 13th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Surprise Surprise – Positive tariff tweets and a lot of people who were shaken out of good stocks the last couple days and are now wishing they had stayed put.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    GLD and Gold Stocks just went off a cliff.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of the $SPX. The vertical dotted lines mark the crossovers of the 50 line on the RSI 21 below. The RSI 21 indicator is not commonly used as a timely indicator but the crossover signals show it catches price highs within a few days so one can exit with their gains and the buy signals are often just as timely. Some stocks and ETFs are too volatile for this indicator as one will see the RSI 21 whipsaw back and forth through the 50 line which makes it useless. But any market that has a track record of consistently holding above or below the 50 line is a good candidate for this indicator. ETFs are better suited for it as they are balanced with a variety of stocks and smooth out the price action and volatility. Adjusting the length of the RSI further would make some slightly more volatile ETFs or evens stocks suitable for the RSI such as RSI 34 or higher. The key factor for using it is for the RSI to stay above the 50 line when price is positive and stay below the 50 line when price is negative.

    The $SPX is presently trapped between 2815 support and 2940 resistance. A price break “that holds” either way is needed for direction.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01048058035&a=682178007

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    Re 3 – Yes. Many people however use the May low as the ultimate support that must hold and that’s at 2728. We haven’t had a true washout yet and seasonality is set up to give it in the next two months. At the same time this market has a way of surprising on the upside and a lot of sideline money waits to come in. As soon as we get anywhere near the 200day at 2800 we should see buying kick-in just as it already has. We just crossed over from “extreme fear” to the low end of “fear” on CNN’s market sentiment indicator so there is not an overabundance of people out there available to sell. Most have already been shaken out. Considering how many global problems there are and inverted yield curve spooky stories there are at the moment the market is showing a lot of resiliency which means we are in a bull market. On the inverted yield curve business there is evidence it has a lot to do with foreign money flows seeking a safe haven in US bonds rather than anything to do with US recession concerns. IMO keep some powder dry and buy under 2850.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    #4
    Unfortunately most Canadians have always been up to their neck in Energy stocks and Mining stocks mainly. These and a variety of other sectors have been in a bear market for a very long time. Can’t cherry pick the winners in hindsight. I don’t dare mention stocks to my neighbours or associates as all I hear is complaints. Holding an Index Fund that reflects the $SPX is at least a balanced world renound market and even it has to be watched with a stop loss in place as just buying and holding anything will ultimately end up in a bear market when least expected and most in disgust will dump it all at or near the bottom. Just human nature to hold on to losing stocks until it’s obvious it wasn’t a good decision. And in the end investors are forced to sell not just what they want to get rid of but also what they must sell. That’s why one just can’t be bullish all the time as bear markets come out of the blue so everyone must be prepared for one. Preservation of capital has always been Job #1. And that applies to all investments plus their spending habits.

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    RON/BC – Most of what I have learned was the hard way. First I would say no resource stocks. Second I would say stick primarily to the US market. Third I would say that long-term the technology sector is where you will continue to have growth and the best chance of positive returns. Fourth, either buy the index QQQ or stick with large cap names that have consistency of growth and are less susceptible to market cycles (eg. software rather than semis). Finally do exactly what you do with technical analysis to adjust the amount of your equity exposure.

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