Tech Talk for Thursday August 15th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday August 15th

Equity index futures moved higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 9 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded overnight to Wal-Mart’s second quarter report.

Index futures moved higher following release of economic data at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims was an increase to 214,000 from 209,000 last week. Actual was 220,000. Consensus for July Retail Sales was an increase of 0.3% versus 0.4% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.7%. Excluding auto sales, consensus for July Retail Sales was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in June. Actual was an increase of 1.0%. Consensus for August Empire State Manufacturing Survey was a decrease to 3.00 from 4.30 in July. Actual was an increase to 4.8. Consensus for August Philly Fed Index was a drop to 10.0 from 21.8 in July. Actual was a drop to 16.8. Consensus for second quarter U.S. Non-farm Productivity was growth at a 1.5% rate versus growth at a 3.4% rate in the first quarter. Actual was growth at a 2.3% rate.

Wal-Mart gained $6.69 to $106.20 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter sales and earnings. The company also raised guidance.

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Cisco dropped $3.85 to $46.76 after the company lowered guidance for the remainder of 2019

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Agilent (A $65.59) is expected to open higher after fiscal third quarter sales and earnings exceeded consensus estimates.

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NetApp gained $1.50 to $46.21 after fiscal first quarter sales and earnings beat recently lowered consensus estimates.

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Jon and Don presenting at the Toronto Money Show

In just over one month’s time we’ll be presenting at the Toronto Money Show on the topic of "Improving Investment Returns by Combining Seasonal, Fundamental, and Technical Analysis." Attend for free by navigating to the @MoneyShows website: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-toronto/workshop/991d533c1252427eba49b134bd6d6009/improving-investment-returns-by-combining-seasonal-fundamental-and-technical-analysis/?scode=048217 … $MACRO $STUDYpic.twitter.com/5r5aRNk26H

 

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Observation

U.S. Treasury bond yield inversion of 10 year and 2 year issues spooked financial service stocks on both sides of the border

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

CAE Inc. $CAE.CA moved below $33.52 to complete a double top pattern. Quarterly earnings were less than consensus.

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Indigo $IDG.CA dropped below $6.89 extending an intermediate downtrend. Quarterly sales and earnings were lower than consensus.

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EAFE ETF $EFA moved below $61.74 completing a double top pattern.

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Europe iShares $IEV moved below $41.18 completing a double top pattern.

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Gildan $GIL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $47.68 extending an intermediate downtrend

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U.S. retail stocks notably under pressure: $JWN $KSS $LB $XRT.

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Cisco $CSCO, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $50.74 completing a double top pattern.

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ARC Resources $ARX.CA, moved below $5.97 to a 14 year low extending an intermediate downtrend

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Eurozone ETF $EZU moved below $36.70 completing a double top pattern.

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Gasoline prices plunge just as demand for the product jumps to the highest level of the year. Benefit to the consumer during the high demand summer driving season, but not so good for investors. $UGA $USO $XLE $XOP

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Trader’s Corner

Short term momentum notably turned down for a wide variety of indices, commodities and sectors.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 14th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 14th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 14th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer plunged 15.15 to 26.85 yesterday. It changed to intermediate oversold from intermediate neutral on a move below 40.00 and continues to trend lower.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer plunged 12.12 to 38.96 yesterday. It changed to intermediate oversold from intermediate neutral on a move below 40.00 and continues to trend lower.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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4 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday August 15th 2019”

  1. bruce Says:

    the AAII sentiment didnt change much this week…….23.2% bulls vs historical average of 38.5%…there were 44.8% bears vs average of 30.5%…….hard to see the market collapsing when the public presumably are still so negative in advance…..

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    Re 1 – The buying today is muted. There is still a lot of money waiting for this market to drop further. I picked up a few shares of MSFT below 132.50 but we are at an uncertain point. Markets are just manic-depressive depending on trade news. I think if you have a lot of cash this is not a bad point for a partial buy of high quality names.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    The XIU.to is back to the low $24 area support. Resistance is 24.75 as well as the top of its channel of $25. With Financials and Energy accounting for 2/3rds of this ETF I’m surprised it is still holding in its channel.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p93973293123&a=673066273

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    Traders going long into the close. Expectation of higher levels tomorrow.

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