Tech Talk for Wednesday September 4th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday September 4th

U.S. equity index futures moved higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 25 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded to news that the extradition bill in Hong Kong has been withdrawn. The Hang Seng Index gained 3.9% in overnight trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the July U.S. Trade Deficit at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a deficit of $53.50 billion versus a deficit of $55.20 billion in June. Actual was a deficit of $54.00 billion.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at U.S. 75.07 cents following released of the July Merchandise Trade report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a deficit of $400 million versus a surplus of $140 million in June. Actual was a deficit of $1.12 billion.

Canadian investors are watching for news on interest rates expected to be released by the Bank of Canada at 10:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for no change at 1.75% on the rate charged to major Canadian banks by the Bank of Canada.

Michaels jumped $1.20 to $6.80 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter sales and earnings.

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Navistar (NAV $21.86) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter sales and earnings.

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Starbucks (SBUX $96.77) is expected to open lower after the company lowered 2020 guidance.

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American Eagle Outfitter dropped $1.31 to $14.96 after the company lowered guidance.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/09/03/stock-market-outlook-for-september-4-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Silver and Construction Spending

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Gasoline ETN $UGA moved below $27.17 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Wal-Mart $WMT, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $114.92 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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Thomson Reuters $TRI.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $92.45 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 3rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 3rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 3rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Highlights for Changes in Seasonality Ratings

TSX to negative from neutral

Shanghai Composite to neutral from negative

Natural Gas to positive from neutral

Platinum to negative from neutral

TSX Financials to neutral from positive

TSX Technology to neutral from positive\

 

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Keith Richard’s Blog

Keith says, “Lions and tigers and bears: Oh my”! Following is a link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/10917-2/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 2.80 to 41.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer eased 2.37 to 46.98 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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9 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday September 4th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    SP500 – We have had four rallies to the 50day MA since the drop in early August. Each drop after each rally has been shallower than the previous. The most recent drop yesterday basically gap filled the area of the Aug 29th break higher and today we are set to rise sharply higher. The odds are getting higher that we may see a break through the 50day if not today perhaps in a few days of trading.

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    For those that like to buy and hold the TD Bank price is presently been bouncing back and forth off of significant price support at $71.50. Most technicals are negative other than this test at support and the positive divergences on the RSI 8. And the 50ema while falling is still above the 200ema. As long as price doesn’t break below $71 all is well with the TD.to chart.

    CWB.to oddly enough is outperforming the other Canadian banks overall and looking good technically.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46201667652&a=683824460

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CWB.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69686575392&a=673066214

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Short Squeeze – There was an interesting multi-year chart shown on CNBC on the amount of short interest on the SP500 index. Levels were clearly elevated in August reflecting investor panic over a possible downturn. All the puts that were bought are evaporating and there is likely a lot of covering going on. The set up for a move higher looks good. SOXX semi etf looks like it will close at the highest level since Jul 31st.

  4. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks very much for all the time and effort you put into #3 September 3rd. And for #2 above on TD.TO. I have some studying to do…

  5. Paul Says:

    Ron, interesting re: TD; what’s your thought on CIBC ? I wonder how often the dividend hits this high of a level >5.5% ? Thank you, Paul

  6. Bernie Says:

    Paul,

    I big 5 banks fell big time in 2008-09, down near 60%. I recall yields crept up to beyond 7%. None of them cut their dividend. TD, BNS and CM have never cut in over 150 years of paying dividends. RY and BMO cut in 1942 during WWII.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Paul
    Here is a chart of CM.to. Price resistance is $104-$105. Support is $98-$99 and when touched price bounces off that area each time like a rubber ball hitting concrete. I played around with trend indicators but there is no trend to find. So you have a price range or channel to trade. Price closed close to the low of the day which tends to be bearish but I don’t see recent price action as bearish. I’d be surprised to see price test the bottom of its range again on this pattern. The key is for price to clear $104-$105 on some b.s. story. That would suggest a rally to $108 or $111. Also watch that uptrendline at $111. Would not be surprised to see that hold as support but if broken expect a test of $98-$99 again. That’s all I see with this chart. Actually all the CD banks look like they could turn around here. But no hard evidence of that just yet. Bernie pointed out some very positive fundamentals about the CD banks worth considering if looking for a buy and hold.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CM.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49098072300&a=673066417

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Paul
    Here is a long term Weekly chart of all the major banks. You can see BNS.to is the most volatile followed by CM.to.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88361181966&a=682926814

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    We all read about the Gold stock rally and many think they’ve missed the big run up. Here is a long term chart and one can easily see price broke out above the 2019 high and the early 2017 high and has presently bumped up against the 2016 high which isn’t even a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the 2016 to 2011 selloff. So no big deal yet and no one has missed much of anything. Note the weak ratio chart of GDX to GLD above as it has only bounced back to the 2008 low ratio. And apparently everyone is a bull on Gold. Not a good sign either. Look at the bull market from 2008 to 2011 and compare that to the 2016 to 2019 rally. Big difference.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93458102470&a=673066134

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