Tech Talk for Friday September 13th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday September 13th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 9 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded to news that China will lift punitive tariffs on U.S. soybeans and pork.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of August Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus is an increase of 0.2% versus an upwardly revised gain of 0.8% in July. Actual was up 0.4%. Excluding auto sales, consensus was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 1.0% in July. Actual was unchanged.

Broadcom (AVGO $300.58) is expected to open higher after Susquehanna raised its target price to $345 from $315.

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Lumber Liquidators added $0.04 to $11.29 after Raymond James raised its target price to $14.00 from $10.00.

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MasterCard (MA $276.40) is expected to open higher after SunTrust RH raised its target price to $325 from $310.

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Mosaic (MOS $21.98) is expected to open higher after JP Morgan raised its target price to $27 from $24.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/09/12/stock-market-outlook-for-september-13-2019/

Note seasonality charts on TSX Composite Index, Natural Gas Futures and U.S. Consumer Prices.

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Palladium ETN $PALL moved above $150.64 extending an intermediate uptrend. Responding to general strength this morning in precious metal prices.

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Industrial SPDRs $XLI moved above $79.07 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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#CPI less Food and Energy up 0.2% (NSA) in August, inline with the average change for this time of year. The month of June still stands out on the chart as the trajectory of the price index shifted noticeably higher. #Tariffs $MACRO #Economy

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Base metal stocks and related ETFs are responding to higher base metal prices $DBB. Chile ETF $ECH, the largest copper producing country in the world moved above $37.57

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Editor’s Note: Copper prices have developed a base building pattern. Nice move yesterday above $2.64 per lb.

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Texas Instruments $TXN, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $129.60 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Semi-conductor iShares $SOXX moved above $220.82 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Helped by the breakout by $TXN

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JP Morgan $JPM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $117.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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TSX Composite Index $TSX.CA moved above 16,672.71 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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Canadian Financial iShares $XFN.CA moved above $38.74 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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Editor’s Note: Upside action was helped by strength in the bank stocks

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Celgene $CELG, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $98.97 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Dow Jones Industrial iShares $DIA moved above $273.05 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Intel $INTC, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $53.14 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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TSX 60 iShares $XIU.CA moved above $24.94 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 12th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 12th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 12th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richard’s Blog

Keith is “Keeping a zen mind on the Shanghai”. Following is a link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/keeping-a-zen-mind-on-the-shanghai

 

Hap Sneddon on BNNBloomberg’s Market Call

Market Outlook

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/hap-sneddon-s-market-outlook~1777508

Past Picks

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/hap-sneddon-s-past-picks~1777557

Top Picks

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/hap-sneddon-s-top-pick~1777605

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 2.00 to 70.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.04 to 59.23 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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19 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday September 13th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Tony – From yesterday. You did well with CWB. I wouldn’t have bought CWB based on fundamental reasons but technically the stock broke out from an extended base. Someone else was keen on NFI and another on MG. All three were winners. The worst thing is when you find a winner and someone else talks you out of it because they don’t see what you do. Listening to “experts” on BNN Market Call is especially hazardous.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    Overbought Warnings – Ana was saying SP500 futures are overbought. I will add that the CNN market sentiment indicator is now solidly in the “Greed” range at 68 (out of 100). Jim Cramer was quoting a proprietary S&P Short-Term Oscillator indicator which shows the market is significantly overbought. You have to subscribe for the low price of $500/year to get access to that indicator. Overbought can continue overbought for an extended period but you never know when the bottom falls out.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    The major Gold stock ETF:GDX ran up to the price resistance high of 2016 at #30.82 and classically sold off again. Price support is the breakout high of 2017 at $25.23. So far the rally has been mediocre and choppy. Note the ratio chart above of GDX:GLD and see how it rallies up to the 2008 “low” ratio and then rolls over again. This ratio needs to turn up sharply to suggest a major price change back up again. Compared to past rallies this one hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. (yet) The Silver to Gold ratio is also very weak with no major turn as yet.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93458102470&a=673066134

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21968375807&a=673066441

  4. Roy Says:

    Thanks for the update Ron/BC

  5. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    Any thoughts on the VET.TO breaking above this $21.70 resistance? Do you think its having a hard time and in for a retreat and then perhaps will have another attempt to break through later this month ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  6. Ana Says:

    $SPX Futures,

    2. Larry/ON

    Thought the market would dive lower today. Not much movement.

    https://invst.ly/c91v8

  7. Ana Says:

    dave/AB

    NTR or is it, because if you are in some form of pain your brain does not work well. Which I think, is probably is affecting all of us.

    Thank you for your message about my wrist. Not really any better after a brace and anti inflammatory medication for a week. The radiologist said that the radius and ulna have a space that is wider than normal between them. The rest is nerve damage and swollen ligaments. I am getting some new pain medication and anti inflammatory cream today.

    Are you in the medical field? Sorry if you have already answered this question. I have not been sleeping so my brain is not really working well. I do not sleep when I am on any form of medication.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Well price bumped up against the late July low of 21.23 and is overbought. Even if it breaks out there is resistance at the downtrendline at 23 and major resistance at the December low of 24.77. So one has to wonder if you have any profit at all it just might not be worth the risk to hold for these breakouts. Price had a bounce much like this is mid June to mid July. I don’t often watch BNN other than mute it and keep an eye on the ticker on the right of the screen to see what the markets are doing but I have seen & read Joseph Schactner recommend this stock often on TV and in print. I think he uses the bullish percent on Oil that bottoms out to call the lows but could be wrong on that.

    I’ve been busy looking at lots condos and putting offers in on the odd one. Still a strong market here. Finally landed one but had to give a very long possession date for acceptance. Don’t know where I’ll live for a couple of months as it looks like I’ve sold mine with a shorter possession date. Might go on a holiday ‘somewhere’ to avoid being homeless. I often say, “If I can’t do things the hard way I wont do them at all.” Seems to work out that way…….. But I think “I’m getting way too old for this sxxt.”

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VET.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p23211046457&a=673066281

  9. FishFat Says:

    Transcontinental, TCL/a.to
    I mentioned TCL/a on Jul 04 and again on Jul-26. This week the price penetrated the downward trendline and closed above resistant at $15.50.

    On the weekly chart there are several bullish indicators: SCTR has just crossed above 25; OBV and Accum/Dist have both flattened out and may be set to turn-up in unison; and the ADX indicator has the DMI(+) set to make a bullish cross of the DMI(-).

    Price of course needs to maintain the breakout. Equity markets are seasonally weak the second half of September, so I would not be surprised to see the price at least pull back to the breakout price of $15.50 and maybe drop back into the previous trading range. This could provide a good entry point.
    TCL/A.TO

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Here are charts for the 3 stocks Bernie posted about the other day. He mentioned to view the technicals so I thought I’d post the charts.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ACO%2FX.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93294036395&a=688047125

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRG%2FUN.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58596202488&a=688047429

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TRP.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07960514666&a=688047753

  11. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    NTR
    Hope you get your accommodation issues ironed out so you’re not living in a storage unit with your furniture…lol

    My wife and I are looking at possibly moving to Victoria next year if the price is right, ie; no extra expense after the sale here. How is the condo market in Victoria for couples with a small dog? Do you feel condo/strata fees are worth the extra ongoing expense?

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Well I’ve never been homeless before but will be late next month for a couple of months. I could ask my lady friend to stay there but I’m afraid of the possible answer,lol. I’ll just keep looking around on various sites “OR” do what my realtor lady suggested and that’s take a holiday or cruise somewhere for the 6 to 8 weeks. It would likely cost about the same anyway. You don’t have a spare room to rent do you?,lol.

    As far as condos here go just about everyone has a dog in their condo now as long as it’s not huge. Almost all new condos allow them. But after being a homeowner from age 21 to 67 and then renting an apartment and then buying a condo I don’t miss a yard at all plus the unexpected expenses that constantly come up with a house. At least with a condo they are obligated to pay for a Depreciation Report which outlines the ‘possible or likely’ life span of each costly area of future repair so you know what may be ahead financially. And you usually have 40 to 90 units putting money in the pot to pay for it. But strata fees are about $250 to $500 per month which would cover most condos fees here. There are rules you need to follow so after living in a house doing whatever you wish they can be annoying but they do tend to be common sense rules. Average condo price here is $250K to $500K which would cover most of them. Don’t know if that helps but is a basic guide unless you want a panoramic sea view. Check with Remax and have them set up a link that shows all the condos in the areas of Victoria you would prefer to live in as it is quite diverse here and up to a maximum price you would pay. And you can review the list of them whenever you wish and every new one will show up on your email. They come all the time. Read enough of them and you get pretty good at figuring out value. I drive by them all the time first to check out the building & area & street etc. The condo I bought is less than 2km from my present place but on a quieter street plus on the top floor and much bigger at 1070 sq.ft.& 2 bedrooms. Plus it was $50K less money. I did want to get some of my money back so that worked out ok. I almost bought a cheaper one which was way less money but saw this one and decided it was nicer to live in and had more potential on selling it down the road. So I’ll tune it up once I get in there and increase its value and enjoy the place. But in retirement I’ve found not owning a home sets you free to enjoy life whatever that might mean to you. I don’t miss baby sitting a house that’s constantly in need of repair. And I don’t miss noisy neighbours that you can’t do anything about.

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    If you want any help with the condo thing let me know as I might be able to answer some questions.

  14. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Thanks for your take on the condo scene in Victoria. I did own a condo once in Edmonton in the 80’s. I held it for 8 years, paid it off and then sold it for $500 more than what I paid for it…lol. Our realtor here thinks we should be able to get about 54% more than we paid for our house 3 years ago. Its a much different market here than it is in Alberta. Questions: how is the market for townhouse condos in Victoria? Do they not usually come with a tiny private yard? I feel they might be an easier option for a dog owner than an apartment condo. Our dog is used to doing her own business in familiar territory.

    I like your realtor’s suggestions on how you should spend your wait time. We really loved our holiday in New Orleans and 11 day Caribbean cruise in January. We definitely want to do more cruises there and in the Mediterranean. Of course you’re welcome here but personally I wouldn’t choose Nelson in rainy October over quality time somewhere warm.

  15. FishFat Says:

    re: #9, Transcontinental (TCL/a.to)
    Here is the weekly chart I was referring to (not sure this link will work):

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TCL%2FA.TO&p=W&st=2015-06-01&en=2019-09-13&id=p98853799814&a=687899225&listNum=85

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Yes a Townhouse would suit a former home owner better than a condo. Especially with a dog or even those that like to sit out in the yard. And they do have a small back yard typically with two floors inside. They are more expensive to buy though on average with prices in the $600K to $900K range overall. But there are cheaper ones as well. That price though would cover most of them. That’s where a good realtor comes in. But first of all set up your Remax MLS link with a price range of 400K to 800K or whatever range you find acceptable. That link seems to last forever and updates everything in your range without them calling you. Condos have balconies but it’s not the same as a yard. Being I live alone I wouldn’t need a townhouse with 1200 to 2000 sq. ft and two floors with 3 bedrooms. Most townhouses are occupied by families with kids and I prefer an age restriction of at least 25 and no rentals and no pets. I don’t like noise and that’s the only way around it. Screaming kids, barking dogs and renters coming and going like gypsies would drive me nuts. The condo I bought has all those restrictions as the older condos had rules like that.

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Here is a Google link of Townhouses for Greater Victoria. It’s just a guide as to what’s for sale presently in the overall area here. But a MLS link to the area with your specific parameters that update instantly is best.

    https://www.remax.ca/bc/victoria-townhouses-for-sale

  18. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Thank you again kindly for your helpful comments and the link! At this point in time I’m leaning more towards a townhouse condo and my wife an apartment condo but we do agree 100% that we want to downsize and live in Victoria where we have friends and family and the climate is more consistent year round. The pain in the butt will be moving again but we think it will be well worth it. Its a shame we can’t move our Hotsprings with us, we’ll just have to invest in a hot tub instead.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Well Victoria does have the mildest weather in Canada but at times in winter you can have steady gray skies and drizzle off and on for days on end and some people get depressed with it. I like it actually as there are less people around and calmer and it tends to clear up with some sunshine during the day or at least be dry. And many leave for California or Arizona for a few months too as an excuse. But Victoria gets roughly 60% of the rain Vancouver gets as we are in a rain shadow so they claim. I golfed all winter other than in February so one can’t complain about that. When I sold my house it was liberating to dump most everything I really didn’t need anymore and I couldn’t make up my mind on a condo as I knew nothing about them so I rented for over 3 years. And while some laugh about getting 2% or 3% on my cash, that adds up to over $12,000 to $18,000 per year on $600,000. In other words it’s like many investors making 20% to 30% on $60,000. That’s why I don’t get caught up with percentages as it’s about how much you have invested not the percentage profit. Most never see that. So you can always rent until you do find a place you are comfortable buying and bank the money or invest it in safer assets. Rents are very expensive here now though. But it’s all relative. Ron.

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