Tech Talk for Wednesday September 25th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday September 25th

U.S. equity index futures moved lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 2 points in pre-opening comments. Index futures responded to launch of an impeachment inquiry by the House of Representatives.

Nike gained $5.37 to an all-time high at $92.55 after the company reported higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. Stifel Nicolaus raise its target price to $106 form $96.

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Philip Morris jumped $3.71 to $75.27 after ending merger talks with Altria.

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Comcast added $0.09 to $45.80 after Benchmark initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $64 target.

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Raymond James upgraded home builders stocks to Outperform from Market Perform included Toll Brothers, Lennar and KB Homes

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/09/24/stock-market-outlook-for-september-25-2019/

Note seasonality chart on the Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price Index

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

BlackBerry $BB $BB.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $8.84 Cdn and $6.64 U.S. extending an intermediate downtrend. The company reported lower than consensus fiscal second quarter revenues.

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Amazon $AMZN, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $1,743.51 extending an intermediate downtrend

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Trader’s Corner

Editor’s Note: Lots of short term technical deterioration yesterday. Note red

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 24th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 24th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 24th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Keith Richard’s Blog

Keith says, “Weak technical along with weak seasonality can be a bearish signal for the Loonie”.

Following is the link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/bearish-on-the-loonie/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 5.40 to 66.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and rolling over.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 2.60 to 68.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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14 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday September 25th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Market Shrugs Off Impeachment – What a scare the last 24 hours have been. Here we are in the worst possible part of the calendar for seasonality and there is an initial sell off yesterday and some continued weakness in tech stocks this morning. It’s now reversing with the SP500 bouncing off the 50 day MA. Amazing bull market resiliency.

  2. Bernie Says:

    dave/ab,

    Re: #8 from yesterday

    dave/ab,

    The article was written more for the 99.5% of investors who don’t have a clue about TA. Perhaps this wasn’t the forum to share this one. Nevertheless the research was quite surprising to me.

  3. Bernie Says:

    dave/ab,

    I should have added that it might be in their best interest for those >99.5% of investors to, at least, learn some TA basics. Whatever the case I strongly feel its important to have a plan and to have diversity in their investments…unless you’re a Warren Buffett. I did well building my portfolio through dollar cost averaging with a 100% equity content but I know full well that the bull market helped my returns. I don’t know what the future holds in store but I feel a bit more secure in that I’m not accumulating anymore and I don’t have to worry so much about price returns.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    I wonder if an investor that just holds stocks and never or rarely sells them would be better off buying portfolio insurance which would simply be a one year Put Option on the broad market that expires end of each year or is worth a lot on a major selloff in a recession situation. After all you wouldn’t drive a car without insurance or not insure your home either regardless of how cautious you were. We all know the broad market is going to plunge in a recession at some point. And many top stocks .wont be coming back.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    I wonder if an investor that just holds stocks and never or rarely sells them would be better off buying portfolio insurance which would simply be a one year Put Option on the broad market that expires end of each year or is worth a lot on a major selloff in a recession situation. After all you wouldn’t drive a car without insurance or not insure your home either regardless of how cautious you were. We all know the broad market is going to plunge in a recession at some point. And many top stocks wont be coming back.

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    SHOP – Bottomed this morning at the monthly S2 level after briefly going oversold to RSI 27. Now up 5% from yesterday.

  7. Larry/ON Says:

    SHOP – Classic key day reversal on heavy volume yesterday and today.

  8. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    I imagine there are several ways to simulate portfolio “insurance” to ward off, or dampen, market selloffs. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen this time but I didn’t have an issue with declining income during the 2008-09 financial crisis with my 100% dividend growth stock portfolio. Granted I had a 30% capital dip, 2 dividend cuts and a few freezes but overall I still had 2% income growth thanks to the majority of my holdings continuing with their dividend growth. The difference then to the “next one” is I didn’t need the income then, it was reinvested. Today I need the income, or at least 72% of it per my budget. I’m reinvesting the other 28% for now. I do have a form of portfolio insurance this time round, that being 35% fixed income content, plus more global diversity. Those factors also help with lowering the overall price volatility.

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    My partner’s portfolio was selected by Scotia McLeod as her friend who has much more money brought her along 7-8 years ago and they set up an account for her as well even though she had far less than $100K. But she doesn’t touch it or change anything as it pays about $500 per month and the balance is about the same as it was that many years ago. But her mix is 76% Fixed Income and 24% Equities over all those years. She doesn’t complain and I don’t blame her as she hasn’t needed the cash so why not. After my condo sale and purchase of another I’ll have a good chunk of change left over so will need to do something with it other than renovate my new purchase. I was thinking that whatever investment I choose I’ll use TFSA money to the max to avoid income tax as that makes a huge difference whether taxable income or not. I wish the Feds would jack that TFSA maximum up to $10K again.

  10. Muntazir Says:

    Ron/BC

    That is a very good return >12% so the 500 pm probably includes some capital gain. 12% is assuming the portfolio had 100k to begin & end.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Muntazir

    That’s what I thought and I’ve seen a few of her statements over the last couple of years and the balance while a little lower is still close to her original investment. And not $100K either. She only gets $400 plus after tax and does mention that it went down at times a little. The balance doesn’t change much but has had some sharp drops but tends to make it up again. But the Scotia McLeod investment arm is controlled by their traders and not your standard Scotia bank Mutual Funds. I can’t read her statements most of the time as there is a lot of trading in the account. I called there once and to get info on opening an account & they wanted $250K for an Equities account and another $250K for Bonds. So I guess these are the wheeler dealers there.

  12. dave/ab Says:

    Bernie

    An elderly lady friend Of mine she is 90 now. Asked me to help her a few years ago. Her husband long past bought some shares and they got the certificates that were kept them in there full brokerage account They bought both these shares in the 1950s. Canadian Utilities and BCE. Those original shares more than split and quadrupled. Canadian Utilities is now Atco if I remember correctly. She was getting all those dividends for so many years and enjoying life on just those 2 companies and still going. I can’t imagine holding onto shares that long.

  13. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Your ladyfriend has done ok. She appears to be happy with her investment so I say just stay the course. You didn’t say what Scotia McLeod charges in management fees. I imagine it would be something like 1.75% annually which is what I paid Wood Gundy when I had a financial planner/advisor from 1999 to 2008. I wasn’t at all happy with my performance in those years. My returns roughly equalled my management fees, ie; also roughly 1.75% annualized returns.

    Its not terribly difficult to DIY. It can be as simple as owning one of those all-in-one ETFs offered by Vanguard, Blackrock iShares, or BMO. For example all 3 offer a low fee globally diversified ETF with similar content to your ladyfriend’s investment (80% fixed income/20% Equity).

  14. Bernie Says:

    dave/ab,

    Yeah I hear stories like that periodically. Investors who had the greatest returns, it seems, are those who bought solid blue chips and then forgot all about them only to discover decades later that their stocks had multiplied many times their original cost. There’s lots of good things to be said about buy and hold. Its tough to do though if you’re watching the market everyday and living on the news (noise).

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