Tech Talk for Friday September 27th 2019

Daily Reports Add comments

Pre-opening Comments for Friday September 27th

Equity index futures moved higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 8 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for August Durable Goods Orders was a drop of 1.2% versus a gain of 2.0% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.2. Excluding Transportation Orders, consensus for August Durable Goods Orders was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.6% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.5%. Consensus for August Personal Income was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.1% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.4%. Consensus for August Personal Spending was an increase of 0.3% versus a revised gain of 0.5% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.1.

Micron dropped $2.62 to $48.60 after fiscal first quarter earnings were less than consensus. In addition, the company lowered guidance.

clip_image001[1]

Lockheed Martin (LMT $392.92) is expected to open higher after raising its dividend. The company also announced an additional $1 billion share buyback.

clip_image002[1]

Las Vegas Sands (LVS $55.88) is expected to open higher after the stock was added to the S&P 500 Index.

clip_image003[1]

Carnival dropped $0.77 to $43.18 after SunTrust, JP Morgan, Stifel Nicolaus and Wedbush lowered their target price on the stock.

clip_image004[1]

 

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/09/26/stock-market-outlook-for-september-27-2019/

 

Observations

Interest sensitive U.S. real estate investment trusts continue to advance to new highs

clip_image001

Bitcoin broke below support at 9506 completing a complex topping pattern.

clip_image002

U.S. Dollar Index ETN moved above $27.01 to an all-time high.

clip_image003

The Euro moved below109.27 to a two year low.

clip_image004

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Teck Corp. $TECK.B.CA $TECK, a TSX 60 stock moved below $21.46 Cdn and $16.15 U.S. extending an intermediate downtrend

clip_image005

Conagra $CAG moved above $30.85 on higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image006

UnitedHealth Group $UNH, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $219.74 extending an intermediate downtrend

clip_image007

Walt Disney $DIS , a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $131.02 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern

clip_image008

Healthcare Providers iShares $IHF moved below $161.27 extending an intermediate downtrend

clip_image009

Cognizant Tech $CTSH, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $59.20 extending an intermediate downtrend

clip_image010

NASDAQ Biotech iShares $IBB moved below $100.29 extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image011

Editor’s Note: Other biotech ETFs that broke intermediate support included FBT, BBH and XBI

Fortis $FTS.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $56.62 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

clip_image012

 

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 26th 2019

clip_image014

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 26th 2019

clip_image016

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 26th 2019

clip_image018

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richard’s Blog

Headline reads, “It’s the economy, stupid: what an impeachment may mean to the markets”. Following is a link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/its-the-economy-stupid-what-an-impeachment-may-mean-to-the-markets/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

clip_image019

The Barometer dropped 1.46 to 68.54 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and rolling over.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

clip_image020

The Barometer dropped 1.73 to 65.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and rolling over.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



21 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday September 27th 2019”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    So Mawer Funds are all in Canadian dollars only?. My RIF money is in U.S.$ and I don’t really want to change it into CD$ investments but I could use money outside of my RIF for CD$ investments. Including TFSA money. I do wonder if there is an ETF on the NYSE and the $TSX that is suited for long term investing that has a good return that is fairly comparable to those Mawer Funds. It would be nice to be able to view a chart of it over time. (Think of it as a comfort chart)

  2. Ana Says:

    $SPX Futures

    Currently rebounding off the shoulder on the head and shoulder with the target of 2886. Might take some time to break the shoulder at 2962

  3. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #1
    I don’t think Mawer Funds are offered in $USD. You don’t necessarily have to hold them in your RRIF, they can be held in any account. Can you not hold both currencies in your RRIF? I prefer to hold everything in $CAD for convenience.

    I’m not clear on your question: “I do wonder if there is an ETF on the NYSE and the $TSX that is suited for long term investing that has a good return that is fairly comparable to those Mawer Funds.” Do you mean a co-listed ETF? I’m not up on those but I think Vanguard and iShares might have some.

    I don’t keep close tabs on my performance these days but I can share my U.S. holdings with you if you want to check performance for yourself. They are all in my RRIF and pay dividends. My U.S. listed securities are: SPLV, BME, HTD, PDI, TLT, GSY, O & UL (actually UK based). My Canadian listed U.S. focused ETFs are: ZWA & ZWH (you can get these in $USD). I’m predominantly into dividend payers you might also look at U.S. based ETFs DGRO & NOBL.

    Hope this helps and that I didn’t overwhelm you with tickers lol. I have many other holdings too, both Canadian and Int’l. My Cdn content is predominantly a core of dividend growth stocks but I also own 2 ETFs there: ZLB & RIT.

  4. Ana Says:

    Ron/BC

    This is quite a departure from your thinking about the market.

    A reminder, that cash is a position.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Yes I agree cash is a position but I have too much making too little now. And will have more after my condo sale & purchase completes so need to do “something,” with it. No place to go.

  6. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Just a thought. Determine how much you need in income from a particular account. Then structure your account with a variety of solid blue chip dividend growth stocks so they collectively cover your income needs. Keep the remainder in a HISA inside the account. Then just collect your dividends and spend them per your requirents. The dividend growth stocks will cover your current needs with current dividends and will cover future needs via dividend growth. The HISA is your safety buffer.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    What I”m wondering is there a way to combine a handful of ETFs on either or both exchanges to match the Mawer Funds such as #104, #130, #108 & #120. With chartable ETFs that compare with the Mawer Funds at least they could be viewed and tracked well without just having blind faith. Always nice to see the trend overall. And one could get in or out of an ETF without causing an issue with the Fund company.So a person could rebalance at different times. I’m somewhat skeptical of individual stocks like the Dividend stocks as any individual stock is exposed to far more risk. A Dividend ETF would suit me ok though such as DGRO and NOBL. And there are more too I believe. I’ll have to spend some time on those charts.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Here are two popular Dividend ETFs:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DGRO&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42749344483&a=673066427

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NOBL&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54135267210&a=690356510

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Two more Dividend ETFs but there are more of them.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCHD&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04340095718&a=673066363

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDY&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60365967436&a=673066301

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    The $SPX touched important price support at the breakout point of 2945 today. This is where the $SPX was one year ago. A breakdown of this level would likely see a selloff to 2815 support or further.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p08204327412&a=673066103

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    And then there is this chart of Dividend ETFs.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DGRO&p=D&yr=2&mn=4&dy=0&id=p01637944268&a=673066212

  12. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #7
    TMX Money charting allows for Canadian mutual funds, ETFs and stocks to be charted together for comparison but charting options & settings are limited. Have a look at the following link in which I have MAW104, MAW130, MAW120, MAW108, DGRO, NOBL, SPHD, SCHD, VIG, VYM & HDV in the same chart so there total returns can be compared.
    https://web.tmxmoney.com/legacy-charting.php?qm_page=51392&qm_symbol=MAW104#top

    As for slightly more advanced charting there is “barchart.com”. We’ve discussed this one before. The chart allows for Canadian mutual funds but only one at a time as far as I know. Here’s a example (remember to highlight the entire link then copy it and paste it to get all the features):
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/MAW104.CF/technical-chart?plot=LINE&volume=0&data=DO&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=EXPMA(50);EXPMA(10);SMACD(20,50,10);SMACD(20,50,1)&sym=MAW104.CF&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

    You should be able to see the trend with the above charts. Hope this helps.

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Thanks for the links. Those charts are ok. In fact for longer term investing one shouldn’t have too much technical info on it as the more indicators showing the more likely one will trade in and out of them. The basic idea for me would be is once bought to hold them as long as the chart is positive and rising along with a positive overall pattern with the 50ema & 200ema. I would wait for a pullback and reversal back up to begin. I noticed how it can link up with Questrade to place an order as well. Very handy site. I’m not great at using the sites yet as I’ll need time to get a good handle on them. And I’m not a fan of too much diversification as I’d rather buy a few Funds or ETFs that are diversified or a combination of them that would diversify the portfolio rather than own individual stocks or too many Funds. Don’t think I’d need to own more than 4 Funds at any time to cover everything. Thanks again.

    https://web.tmxmoney.com/legacy-charting.php?qm_page=51392&qm_symbol=MAW104#top

  14. Paula Says:

    Re dividend ETFs:

    On the Canadian side, I have been accumulating ZWC: one of BMO’s many covered call ETFs. I like the yield and the favourable tax treatment outside of a registered account. BUT, with the recent run up to a possible double top, I am tempted to sell and buy back at lower levels:

    http://schrts.co/aNsJIjBv

  15. Bernie Says:

    Re: Canadian dividend ETFs

    It may not have “dividend” in its title or a high yield but I thought I would point out that “BMO Low Volatility Canadian Equity ETF (ZLB)” has topped all Canadian dividend ETFs in total return performance and dividend growth since its inception in Oct 2011. I hold a 2% position in my RRIF. https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/etf/performance.aspx?t=0P0000UHX6&lang=en-CA

    BMO’s “BMO Low Volatility US Equity ETF (ZLU)” has also done quite well and is worthy of note. There is a $USD version ZLU.U (Ron/BC). https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/etf/performance.aspx?t=0P0000YET9&lang=en-CA

  16. Bernie Says:

    Re: my #15
    The latter reference was to a U.S. focused ETF. I don’t own ZLU but own a similar ETF: “Invesco S&P 500® Low Volatility ETF (SPLV)”. https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/etf/performance.aspx?t=0P0000RR81&lang=en-CA

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    There are too many possibilities for my liking as I don’t know enough about their relative differences. So “IF” you had to choose 2 to 4 ETFs only to put some money into for a year or more which ones would you choose???? And the same question for Funds. Also I was looking at XSP.to and thought that might be a good ETF to hold. But hey,what do I know about holding…….thoughts?

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart for ZLB.TO and Xlu.to.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZLB.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57539751467&a=690646735

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZLU.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59783322008&a=690646429

  19. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #17

    The investment path I have chosen appears to differ quite a bit from what you appear to seek going forward so I’ll take what I would choose out of your question.

    If you prefer ETFs or funds which have outperformed long term with low volatility including in down markets I’d suggest SPLV for the U.S. side and ZLB for the Canadian side. Long bonds usually do well when equity markets falter so you might consider swapping out those equity ETFs with TLT and ZFL when your TA “line in the sand” is crossed.

    As for all equity mutual funds, MAW108 and MAW120 will likely give you greater returns long term but it will be with greater volatility. Balanced funds MAW104 and MAW130 will give you lower highs and higher lows than the all equity funds.

  20. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #19
    My suggestions to you were made without consideration for price entry levels. You’re much better at determining entry levels than I am so I won’t go there.

  21. Bernie Says:

    Another viewpoint:

    “Investing using Exchange Traded Funds”
    https://www.investorsfriend.com/newsletter-september-28-2019/

Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in