Tech Talk for Tuesday October 8th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday October 8th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 18 points in pre-opening trade. U.S./China trade negotiation concerns continue to escalate.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the September Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in August. Actual was a drop of 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in August. Actual was a drop of 0.3%.

Microsoft (MSFT $137.12) is expected to open higher after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold.

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Oracle (ORCL $54.80) is expected to open lower after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.

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Domino Pizza dropped $7/98 to $234.23 after reporting lower than consensus third quarter revenues and earnings. The company also lowered guidance.

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Discover Financial (DFS $77.70), Capital One Financial (COF $86.88) and American Express (AXP $113.65) are expected to open lower after JP Morgan lowered target prices on the credit card sector.

Target (TGT $107.95) is expected to open higher after Raymond James initiated coverage with a Strong Buy rating.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/10/07/stock-market-outlook-for-october-8-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Gold Futures and Vehicle Sales.

 

StockTwit released yesterday @EquityClock

Dollarama $DOL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $46.61 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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MMM $MMM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $154.00 extending an intermediate downtrend

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Non seasonally adjusted data indicates that total vehicle sales fell by 22.3% last month, approximately twice the average percent decline for this time of year of 11.7%. $MACRO $STUDY $CARZ $GM $F

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 7th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 7th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 7th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Technical Scoop

David Chapman’s weekly comment compliments of www.enrichedinvesting.com

David discusses, “Trade save, unusual intervention, weak economy, unemployment low, gold correction, employment story”. Following is a link:

http://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Trade-save-unusual-intervention-weak-economy-unemployment-low-gold-correction-employment-story.pdf

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 3.81 to 49.90 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer eased 0.66 to 49.12 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday October 8th 2019”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Thanks for the links Monday. Much to consider………… I’ll wait until late October or until the broad market sells off to an oversold position.

    By the way the guy that predicted a bubble top in the market in 2007-2008 and made a fortune by shorting the market heavily just stated that he sees another bubble now in stock and bond ETFs. Would be nice to see a major selloff to oversold levels again. Even if this bull market continues it would be realistic to expect the $SPX to test its long term uptrendline. It always does but just doesn’t say when……

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&st=1990-03-10&id=p76839278703&a=673066407

  2. bruce Says:

    ana
    do you have any thoughts or targets you might share?…..

  3. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    We’re definitely due for a major correction. In the Facebook dividend group I’m in I’ve suggested to others that they tread lightly with new positions, ie; if they must buy then buy quality and layer in their position slowly. Sadly many of the newbies don’t understand dividends. Many think dividends are free money and high yields equals more money. The yield chasers are in for some hard reality when the correction/selloff/downturn hits the fan.

  4. Paula Says:

    RE: dividend stocks

    Since last Wednesday, I gradually sold out of all my BCE.TO. It has continued to go up!
    LOL. I have put some of the proceeds into TD.TO, which goes X-dividend tomorrow.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Well I’m no expert in yields and dividends myself so my strategy is the same as the guy that picked up a hot horseshoe and tossed it immediately and just said it doesn’t take him long to look at a horseshoe. A wise old trader once said his advice is “Don’t lose money.” And while that sounded condescending and arrogant the more I thought about it the more I liked the idea. So now with all investments I only accept 3 scenarios: Make money or break even or lose just a little. No other scenario is acceptable. It works for me and I’m happy with it but won’t likely ever get rich either.

  6. Paula Says:

    Here is a link I just got sent to me by JC Parets (somehow I got on his mailing list). I have not listened to it (yet) but is sounds interesting and others may agree (or not). Walter Deemer is an old timer with tons of experience:

    https://allstarcharts.com/star-interviews-season-3-episode-11-walter-deemer-technical-analyst-57-years-experience/?inf_contact_key=1cb5b98530c55d0f0f0268275d0efaa6680f8914173f9191b1c0223e68310bb1#more-106463

  7. Ana Says:

    #2. Bernie,

    The one hour, five hour, daily, weekly and monthly macd are pointing lower.

    The $VIX has an inverse head and shoulder.

    Day trading charts look like the $SPX has more down to go.

    Sorry, I should have sent this during market hours, but I am in Saskatchewan. So did not tune in until the market was done. Took out all of the carrots today in the garden! Very calm here, in a small rural town.

  8. bruce Says:

    ana
    not so calm here in calgary……..-4 and snowing……

  9. Bernie Says:

    Paula,

    Re: #4
    I own BCE in my TFSA & TD in my RRIF & TFSA. I haven’t kept track of my gains or valuations, just enjoying the growing income. Wouldn’t they both be entering into their strong seasonal periods?

  10. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #5
    We’re not that different, both conservative and want to make money. In my case its income money that grows or stays the same. If it falls, I’m out. I’m not in it for the wealth. I just want enough for my needs and growing needs.

  11. Paula Says:

    Bernie

    RE: #9
    Thanks for your comments. I have held BCE for over a year and have enjoyed receiving the dividends, and there is still the upcoming one. But,I guess I am a trader at heart. I had nice gains and did not want to see them disappear. I see all kinds of bearish divergences on the chart and it has had quite a move up for a non- growth company. Those were my main reasons for selling. Then last Friday, I heard Andrew McCreath interviewing Ted Dixon who tracks insider buying/selling and he said there has been quite a bit of selling by insiders. The reason had something to do with negative consequences for the telcos depending on the results of the upcoming election. So I sold the rest today. There have been so many times when I did not sell and regretted it as well as times when I sold and regretted it so who knows if it was the right thing to do? But, I expect to buy it back at some time in the future after a correction which is inevitable. In the meantime, TD has had/is having a correction and the dividend yield is close to 4%, which is high for TD, so I am moving some of the funds into it.

    To tell you the truth, I don’t actually “believe” in seasonal investing. Perhaps that is heresy to admit on this site.

  12. Bernie Says:

    Paula,

    Re: #11
    Thanks Paula. Sounds reasonable, hope it works out well for you! TD is also a better dividend grower than BCE. The way telecoms go I’ve always preferred T in the space. They’ve had the best growth and dividend growth of the bunch, not to mention the best customer service. I hold T in my RRIF but not in my TFSA. Not sure why I have BCE in my TFSA, probably because it had cheaper valuations at the time of buying. I’m not much of a trader so I’ll likely hang on for the consistent annual dividend increases. I call them my pay raises.

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