Tech Talk for Thursday October 17th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday October 17th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 7 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded to news that a tentative Brexit deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom has been reached.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for the October Philly Fed Index was 8.0 versus 12.0 in September. Actual was 5.6. Consensus for September Housing Starts was 1.320 million units versus 1.364 million units in August. Actual was 1.256 million units. Consensus for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims was 215,000 versus 210,000 last week. Actual was 214,000.

IBM dropped $7.23 to 134.66 after reporting lower than consensus third quarter revenues.

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Netflix gained $26.49 to $312.26 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter earnings.

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CSX added $1.75 to $70.75 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter earnings.

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Morgan Stanley gained $1.49 to $44.10 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/10/16/stock-market-outlook-for-october-17-2019/

Note seasonality charts on U.S. Retail Trade, VIX Index and Consumer Discretionary sector.

 

Nice Breakout by the Nikkei Average above 22,300

The Average closed yesterday at 22,473.

 

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

CVS Health $CVS, an S&P 100 stock moved above $65.25 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Thomson Reuters $TRI.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $86.71 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern

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Exelon $EXC, an S&P 100 stock moved below $46.64 completing a double top pattern.

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Fortis $FTS.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $54.70 completing a double top pattern.

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Coffee ETN $JJOFF moved below $8.37 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Nickel ETN $JJNTF moved below $20.50 completing a double top pattern.

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Metro $MRU.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $56.18 completing a double top pattern.

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Global Forest Products ETF $WOOD moved above $60.35 completing a base building pattern. ‘Ti s the season for forest product stocks to move higher to next February!

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 16th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 16th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 16th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 1.60 to 63.53 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 0.66 to 48.44 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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4 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday October 17th 2019”

  1. bruce Says:

    the AAII weekly survey shows the public back to near normal readings……the bulls are up 13.3% to 33.6 versus the historical average of 38.0%……..the bears are at 31.1 down 12.9….average is 30.5%…….

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Re:#3 Wed.post. Thanks for the clarification. Something to consider for sure for a portion of funds. I’ve given up on rates rising any time soon which would be typical of economic recoveries. Very strange to have low rates with a strong economy. But it is what it is so must deal with it. The timing for ETFs could be good with the November to May period typically being bullish equities and rates looking weak which would favour TLT type investments as well. Equities AND Bonds often trade in the same direction as well but as you suggested a partial bond position tends to be a safety net on equity pullbacks. Here is chart of a bunch of dividend ETFs. I see SPHD has the highest volatility along with SPYD. Not sure how each one of these differs though.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DGRO&p=D&yr=2&mn=4&dy=0&id=p99181563084&a=673066212

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Re:#2
    Couldn’t help noticing that SCHD tends to have the highest highs on the major rallies but only pulls back moderately on the selloffs. Nice combination you don’t often see. Most markets cut much the same both ways.

  4. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    In my screening for suitable candidates I like to look at how they performed in a down market. The article shows SPHD’s index admirably outperformed the broad market in the 2007-09 downturn. SPHD also outperformed the ETFs you show in your chart in the 2018-Q4 dip. It may have shown the greatest volatility in your chart time frame but long term and in down markets I feel it will excel. Also have a good look at SPLV. I prefer this over the others mentioned and own it even with its lowish 2% yield.

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