Tech Talk for Friday October 25th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday October 25th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Amazon dropped $107.98 to $1672.80 after reporting lower than consensus third quarter earnings.

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Intel gained $1.90 to $54.13 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues and earnings. JP Morgan raised its target price to $68 from $64.

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Verizon added $0.67 to $61.25 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues and earnings.

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Nvidia (NVDA $196.85) is expected to open higher after RBC Capital raised its target price to $251 from $217.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/10/24/stock-market-outlook-for-october-25-2019/

Note seasonality chart on Durable Goods Orders

Observation

European equity markets and related ETFs continue to outperform U.S. equity indices. Nice move yesterday by Europe iShares above $44.67 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

eBay $EBAY, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $37.23 extending an intermediate downtrend following release of lower than consensus third quarter results

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F Five Networks $FFIV, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $142.99 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Lam Research $LRCX, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $243.76 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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Auto ETF $CARZ moved above $33.36 and $33.43 setting an intermediate uptrend

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Base metal stocks are moving higher on rising copper prices. Southern Copper $SCCO, one of the world’s largest copper producer moved above $36.41 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Procter & Gamble $PG, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $124.56 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Comcast $CMCSA, an S&P 100 stock moved above $47.05 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Nutrien $NTR.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $63.00 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Johnson & Johnson $JNJ, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $126.18 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 24th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 24th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 24th 201

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.40 to 67.33 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending up.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped another 1.80 to 42.34 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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5 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday October 25th 2019”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    The $SPX type ETFs closed right on their triple tops. XSP.to closed right on its July & August high. No breakout ‘yet’. And the CD Banks ETF:ZEB.to closed right on its 2018 high of 29.54. Also no breakout. Seems to waiting for ‘something’.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XSP.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49209808297&a=691219631

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34956413715&a=678874213

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the Daily $TNX 10 year yield chart. Note price has been in an 8 year channel and the yield (interest rate) bottomed out in 2012 and then tested that bottom again in 2016 and has once again tested that bottom area of 14. The chart suggests rates are going to rise again for some time,not fall. Watch for price to clear 18 which is the downtrendline but watch especially for price to clear 19 which is the top of the W pattern.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30956398640&a=673066379

  3. still_learning Says:

    hi Ron/BC, re #2;

    A BMO/NB technical analyst, who I sometimes follow, has noted the same thoughts as you about the U.S. 10-year yield and the possibility of interest rates RISING not falling. He notes this would be BAD news for the utility sector. As well, he suggests an extended period of consolidation in REITs and precious metals stocks.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Still_Learning

    Well I’m just stating what the charts are saying and the 10 year yield chart of the $TNX has been very good at predicting rate change “trends”. Last year in 2018 I posted a 30 year “Monthly” chart of $TNX and showed how every time the RSI 8 went over the 70 line and dropped back through it since 1987 rates had topped and began another selloff for some time. At that time everyone including the U.S.Federal Reserve chairman was saying there would be 3 or 4 rate “HIKES” in 2019. Well as we can see the chart was right not all the financial gurus as rates fell over the last year. I didn’t know at that time that unless you were a subscriber to Stockcharts you couldn’t see the Monthly chart. So now I’ve posted the Daily chart that shows 20 years of info which anyone can see. Being a Daily chart rather than a Monthly chart the RSI 8 doesn’t show the long term major trend signal of the RSI 8 but the price chart does. This doesn’t mean there can’t be another rate cut on the short term but the key point is we’ve come to the end of rates falling in this time frame and to expect a rebound over the next year or so. That will trash a lot of investments that trade like bonds I would guess plus many people in debt as some rates will increase dramatically relative to where they are now. With rates so low any change will have a big effect on debt obligations. Glad I don’t owe a dime and I’d like rates to run up so I can relax with cash in the bank getting a good risk free rate of return. I’ve overlaid the $TNX with the 20 year TBond ETF:TLT in pink and you can see how it trades inverse to the $TNT. So we’ll see how this pans out. Keep in mind this can take time to develop and isn’t a short term swing trade but a ‘trend’ trade.

    Also I still think it’s a good idea to make a golf putter with a disconnecting club head that can adjust up or down from the pivot point so one can adjust it as it fits their body style. I’d like to try a 90 degree adjusted putter standing right over the ball with the shaft straight up and choking the shaft. I think it would be a “BEST SELLER”, lol. Might go golfing today if it’s not too busy. I don’t like crowds.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Still_Learning

    Here is the $TNX 10 year Yield chart with the 20 year TBond ETF:TLT overlaid to show the inverse relationship the two have.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29526633761&a=673066379

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