Tech Talk for Tuesday December 31st 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday December 31st

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

The Shanghai Composite Index gained 10.10 to 3,050.12 after China’s December PMI advanced to 50.2. Consensus was 50.1. The Index moved above 3,042.93 and 3,048.48 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Nvidia (NVDA $232.32) is expected to open higher after Benchmark raised its target price to $275 from $240.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Walt Disney $DIS, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $144.19 completing a short term head and shoulders pattern.

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Frontier 100 iShares $FM moved above $30.33 extending an intermediate uptrend

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Restaurant Brands International $QSR.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $83.46 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Royal Bank $RY.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $103.35 and $103.03 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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U.S. Dollar Index ETN $UUP briefly moved below $26.02 setting an intermediate downtrend

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Editor’s Note: By definition, other major currencies moved higher. The Euro led the advance by moving above 111.82 completing a base building pattern.

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 30th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 30th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 30th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Scoop

Thank you to David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com for the following link:

http://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/All-time-highs-overbought-territory-golds-break-dollar-falls-repo-continues-yields-fall-healthy-energy.pdf

 

A “Shout Out” for David Morgan

Congratulation to David Morgan on his retirement today after serving in the Canadian investment industry for 50 years! I first met David in 1970 when he was a young “mover and shaker” in the Accounting Department at Richardson Greenshields in Winnipeg. David eventually moved on to become the Sales Manager at Union Securities. Thereafter, he settled down as the Branch Manager of Caldwell Securities’ Georgetown branch. Enjoy your retirement, David. Well deserved!

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average dropped 1.60 to 79.15 yesterday. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average dropped 2.51 to 70.06 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday December 31st 2019”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of the CD$. Price just broke out above resistance with a gap. While this doesn’t make for a trend change it is a bullish event. The U.S.$ has been rolling over and working its way lower. I wouldn’t throw in the towel on the U.S.$ just yet but a sizeable pullback seems to be developing. To switch back and forth is very expensive with the exchange rate so one can buy the CD$ ETF:FXC or even the Euro ETF:FXE that trades inverse to the U.S.$. Lots of choices of trades when the U.S.$ is falling.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85365743557&a=689160398

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97766613329&a=673066460

    Precious metal stocks and ETFs are at or approaching resistance levels and are overbought for the most part. Of course everyone loves stocks “after” a run up and approaching resistance but it usually pays to wait for a pullback.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73493534589&a=673066134

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13123045512&a=674185261

  2. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks for so generously sharing these charts and all the other ones over the years. I have learned a lot from you and not just the charts but all the wisdom you have taken the time to impart.

    Happy New Year to you and yours and to everyone on this board. Thanks to Don Vialoux for Ron/BC
    Thanks for so generously sharing these charts and all the other ones over the years. I have learned a lot from you and not just the charts but all the wisdom you have taken the time to impart.
    Happy New Year to you and yours and to everyone on this board. Thanks to Don Vialoux for diligently commenting everyday and making this forum available to us.

    Good luck to all!

    Good luck to all!

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Forex trading is 24hr except weekends. Gaps may appear on FX EFTs that aren’t relevant.

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    GOOGL – Huge management shake-up. They are having problems retaining talent. They are going to have difficulties unless the new CEO can do for them what Satya Nedella did at MSFT taking over from Ballmer.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/31/google-veterans-the-company-has-become-unrecognizable.html

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    You’re welcome. Posting charts also helps me reassess my analysis as I know many eyes will be viewing the charts so I try to do the same ‘before’ I post them. I’ve caught a lot of technical issues looking them over again before I post that I didn’t catch in the first place. And I’ve learned over the years that while technical chart patterns don’t lie it pays to watch the sentiment of the market in various ways and not feel you are missing out on anything as cash is also a position. But everyone’s comments and charts and ideas are worth a consideration. What I have found as well is I spend far too much time analyzing too many charts to do me much good as I can only save 500 charts on Stockcharts and then I have to start deleting a bunch to save any more. In the end I have too many saved possibilities to choose from. Never used to do that and would only have a handful of stocks to trade with. Made things much easier and faster to enter and exit. I plan on focusing on a few ETFs that I’ll watch carefully to trade in the future and not spend time on questionable trades for myself just because they have a good chart pattern. Trades like: SPY type ETFs and GDX/XGD.to and ZEB.to and XFN and XLK. That reminds me of your comment about buying XLK at $71 last May which I thought was a very good trade. But I was busy with something else so didn’t buy that Tech ETF that has outperformed SPY and most other ETFS. That is the type of trade one can buy and sit on with just a trendline intact and not sell on just a bounce. See how XLK has outperformed SPY consistently for some time now. I’ll wait for a solid pullback that becomes oversold and at support first. Right now it’s about $10 above support and very overbought and $12 above its 200ema which is quite a stretch.

    Meanwhile Happy and Prosperous New Year to everyone!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLK&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59176750428&a=673066156

  6. Bernie Says:

    I wish you all a happy, healthy and profitable 2020!

  7. KC Says:

    Happy New Year to you all. May you all have a good year in 2020.

  8. Larry/ON Says:

    Happy New Year everyone. Be healthy. When it comes to markets it’s only money.

  9. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Thanks for your comments and especially re XLK. I sold it too soon which is a mistake I seem prone to make – didn’t trust the trend. One of my goals has been to stop trading so much and just ride a trend when I happen to get on one. Sitting on an intact trendline and PATIENTLY staying with it until the trend breaks sounds great to me but somehow I have a hard time doing it. XLK is one I am watching and waiting, PATIENTLY, for that pullback to support, as you say, about $10 -$12 lower.

    The other goal is to narrow my focus, which I have been doing. I only follow a handful of individual Canadian stocks – all with good dividends and limit my position size in each. I am considering replacing these with Canadian ETFs for income e.g. ZWC, ZPR.

    FOCUS and PATIENCE are two words I keep repeating. Currently I am focusing on EEM, GDX, XBI, XLE and XLK. Five is plenty. SPY is a good one to be aware of because it represents SPX which is the main market that the world follows. Looking at what is outperforming SPY is very helpful.

    This list can change over time; it is not written in stone. Earlier in the year, I was following TLT and only recently started looking at XLE. There are whole sectors I avoid and don’t care about. I don’t believe that diversification is to be found in owning different stocks/stock sectors. They are all still equities, whereas, owning different asses classes, such as bonds, currencies and cash does offer some diversification benefit.

    It is very good of you to always reply to everyone’s requests and post charts for various companies but I wonder that you have not lost patience with doing this as it is a big distraction. I hope you continue to share your wisdom as long as this forum is available. (And don’t wear yourself out with renovating, LOL).

  10. Florence Stokes Says:

    Happy New Year to everyone. A special thank you to Ron/BC and Bernie for all their informative help.

  11. FishFat Says:

    Thank you Don Vialoux, Jon Vialoux, and staff for another year making the dvTechTalk and Equity Clock websites available. Both sites are an amazing font of knowledge and investment ideas. MUCH APPRECIATED.
    Thanks also to the multitude of contributors to this site for your ever interesting chatter, banter and investment ideas.

  12. dave/ab Says:

    Thank you Don Vialoux and staff for building this site. Ron and everyone that post on here Happy trading 2020

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