Tech Talk for Thursday February 6th 2020

Daily Reports Add comments

Pre-opening Comments for Thursday February 6th

U.S. equity index futures continued to move higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 11 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 215,000 versus revised 217,000 last week. Actual was 202,000. Consensus for fourth quarter Productivity was an increase of 1.2% versus a decline of 0.2% in the third quarter. Actual was an increase of 1.4%.

Micron advanced $1.36 to $56.77 after Raymond James raised its rating on the stock from Market Perform to Strong Buy. Target was set at $70.

clip_image001

Bristol-Myers added $1.81 to $67.40 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues and earnings.

clip_image002

Twitter gained $2.54 to $33.39 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues and earnings.

clip_image003

Peloton dropped $3.00 to $29.70 after reporting a widening quarterly loss on slowing revenue growth.

clip_image004

 

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/02/05/stock-market-outlook-for-february-6-2020/

Note seasonality charts on Non-farm Payrolls and the Energy sector.

 

Observations

The S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index closed at an all-time high.

image

image

Ditto for the TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX 60 Index!

image

image

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Cognizant $CTSH, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $64.37 setting an intermediate uptrend.

image

IBM $IBM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $149.40 setting an intermediate uptrend.

image

Editor’s Note: Seasonal influences for IBM are positive to the beginning of April.

image

SNC Lavalin $SNC.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $32.99 extending an intermediate uptrend.

image

US Imports were down by 2.5% (NSA) last year, while Exports were higher by 0.6%. The average calendar year increase for each is 5.6% and 4.6%, respectively. $MACRO $STUDY #Economy #Trade

Meanwhile, in Canada, Imports were lower by 2.4% (NSA) in 2019, while Exports were higher by 6.4%. Average calendar year increase for each is 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively. $MACRO $STUDY #CDNecon #CAD

Biogen $BIIB, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $123.74 extending an intermediate uptrend

image

Home Depot $HD, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $237.79 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

image

Editor’s note: Seasonal influences for HD are positive to the end of April.

image

Canadian National Railway $CNR. CA $CNI, a TSX 60 stock moved above $126.95 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

image

Editor’s Note: Seasonal influences for CNR are positive to the end of May.

image

ASML Holdings $ASML, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $305.90 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

image

 

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 5th 2020

spx feb 6

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 5th 2020

crb feb 6

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 5th 2020

xlk feb 6

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Greg Schnell’s “Market Buzz”

Time to take trading profits in gold stocks? See Greg’s comments:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMQcjkJee0k&feature=youtu.be

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

image

The Barometer advanced another 9.42 to 68.34 yesterday. It changed from intermediate neutral to intermediate overbought on a return above 60.00.

 

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

image

The Barometer advanced 7.37 to 65.90 yesterday. It changed from intermediate neutral to intermediate overbought on a return above 60.00.

 

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



11 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday February 6th 2020”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    “Missed it by that much.” SP500 was 0.19pts away from the all-time high yesterday.”Would you believe” Trump is looking increasingly likely to win in Nov which is great for markets. Trump is now at his highest ever approval rating (49%) according to a Gallup poll released Tues.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx

  2. Bruce Says:

    The aaii survey for the week ended feb.5th shows the bulls up 1.9% to 33.9% and the bears down 1.6 to 35.2% ……..I m surprised the conovavirus didn’t frighten the public more……

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Re 2. Chaos in financial markets was short-lived as investors determined that there will be control of coronavirus outside of China.

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    $CAD and WTI – Amazing YTD correlation on the chart but if you go further back the correlation breaks down.

  5. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Sorry to hear you rented a wreck while in California. I hope everything else went without a hitch and that you enjoyed your getaway! I’ve owned 2 Toyota Corollas in my time and have nothing but good things to say about them. They handle well, need little maintenance and run (almost) forever. I’ve never heard of any vehicle having issues with the doors not being able to clear the curb but can imagine that may be the case with some low riding sports cars with low profile tires. I asked my wife what the problem may be with your rental. She thinks the car was probably in an accident which shifted the frame. She said if that was the case it should never have been rented out due to safety concerns.

    I’m not sure about restrictions in getting out of mutual funds with Questrade. With other brokers you have to hold it for at least 3 months or its subject to a withdrawal penalty and/or $35 commission. That doesn’t both me at all because there are no commissions to buy or sell if held longer than the 3 months and because I’m not trading it. I think with Questrade ETFs are commission-free to buy, buy not sell and, oddly, charges a commission to buy mutual funds. Perhaps paying that commission removes the early redemption charges. I would definitely ask Questrade what the policy is before buying.

    Re your attached tmxmoney chart:
    I know their legacy charts allow for adding more than one security so I modified your chart to include 3 other Mawer funds I like (MAW120, MAW130 & MAW104), adjusted for “slits and dividends” to show total returns and increased the time to 2 years. Unfortunately I’m not able to link the modified chart as it doesn’t allow for changes to the settings be saved. Its interesting to see how well those funds held up during the down market in 2018Q4 when compared to most equity ETFs and stocks. Here is the modified link anyway. You might be able to see it in its entirety using Google Chrome and its “paste and go to…” option.
    https://web.tmxmoney.com/legacy-charting.php?qm_page=62439&qm_symbol=MAW108

  6. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    Any thoughts on BCE.TO chart please ? Do you think todays break above resistance trend line will hold or will it drop back into that channel ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  7. JP/BC Says:

    Ron/BC: The holding period for Mawer funds is standard for mutual funds. The Questtrade ETFs should have no holds as all ETFs trade like stocks.

    My month long vehicle rental in San Diego last November didn’t go as planned either. I booked a compact. They upgraded me to a large SUV with leather seats. I thought “bonus!”. But after driving away we had several quirks. The passenger front door had the hinge side metal catch the panel in front of it which made a loud clunk. The power steering started making screeching sounds along with other groaning. The panels in the front would pop out of alignment. The backup camera quit once but started again. We kept it anyway. Like Bernie suggested for your rental, it may have been in an accident. They should not have rented it out.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    I was told the curbs in San Luis Obispo are high and the doors jamming on the curb and sidewalk is common there with the Toyota Corola. And the front bumpers that wrap around the front fenders are very low as well and bump the curb easily while parking. That’s why they were scraped up when I picked up the car. There are lots of low sitting cars as they look sleek and sporty but I’m used to a SUV that is high off the ground and like to have a bird’s eye view of things. When I bump a curb with my Ford Escape it’s with the tires not the bumper or valance below it. The last car I rented in Arizona was a Kia Soul and that was the best car I ever rented for all aspects of driving. And I have learned a lot about my Ford Escape 2 wheel front wheel drive with a 4 cyl 6 speed automatic. It’s acceleration is like a V-6 which is a surprise for a 4 cyl car. What they have done is put in very low gears to start out with and with 6 gears they don’t need more horse power than a 4 cyl engine. I’ve noticed even with new BF Goodrich All Weather Tires that have aggressive tread I still spin my tires on wet pavement starting out which indicates just how low the first gears are. It’s not a good trait in a vehicle I don’t think. Would rather have a V-6 All Wheel Drive for a more balanced power train. Reminds me of the 15 speed bikes long ago that you could spin your tires in dirt when in first gear.

    I called Questrade today and talked with them for 45 minutes about placing Fund trades and they have most of them. I was surprised that I can’t buy & sell their funds like other funds as their funds are Managed only. So I can buy other funds with low MER fees like Mawer etc. They wont show up for 2 days in my account though. I’m starting to think I should stick to Stockcharts listed ETFs that I can buy and sell or switch from Aggressive or Balanced to Defensive ETFs etc so I can be invested in markets that are in-sink with the present trend. The commissions with Questrade are negligible so switching back and forth with the trend of the market is not a major cost factor.

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    BCE.to ran up to the Oct high double top and backed off. Had a nice day as I guess the earnings announcement was positive today. Price needs to clear and hold above the Oct high to suggest another big run up. Even then price would likely pull back to the breakout point. A pullback would be more likely now with support in the $60-$62 range.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61140978084&a=673066205

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    JP/BC

    Well the only thing I found suspicious about the rental car other than it wasn’t the model I asked for was the scraped fenders and the tires were almost bald which is odd for a rental car I would think. I guess they run them to death and then just replace the car when they need repairs. When I filled out the satisfaction questionnaire I got in the email after, my only positive comment was the great gas mileage I got with the Corola. I never did figure out how to get in the trunk other than pulling a leaver on the drivers side floor. And every time I grabbed the steering wheel I bumped the windshield wiper leaver on. I guess I just don’t think Japanese as nothing made much sense about it. Even shifting the leaver it was like shifting a multi geared standard shift rather than just normal straight up and down shifting for an automatic.

  11. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    I’m sorry you had to experience a Toyota product which obviously wasn’t maintained properly for your holiday. In the end its all about ones preferences in what they like. I’ve owned a lot of different makes in vehicles in my time. I was sold on the first Toyota I owned, a 1981 Corolla which I purchased in 1985. It rarely needed maintenance in the time I owned it. When I sold it in 1995 it had nearly 500K on it. Since 1981 I’ve owned nothing but Toyotas, 2 Corollas and 3 Camrys. We absolutely love our 2007 Camry gas hybrid. My wife’s previous car was a Ford Focus. We both hated that car! It flat out wasn’t made very well. It was loud from the engine noise and wind, rattily because of poor construction, didn’t heat properly in the winter and often needed parts. The doors were very light, probably due to a lack of insulation. They had a tinny sound when we closed them. I find it unbelievable that these crappy vehicles cost more than Corollas when new. The quality is so much better with the latter. We decided to downsize and go with one car before moving to BC. Anyway, I don’t wish to upset you here…its all about preferences. That includes liking to be high off the ground. I owned a semi-camperized 1974 Ford van and a 1978 Volkswagen Rabbit at the same time for a couple of years. I preferred the van for visibility, ie; being high up and able to see over other vehicles but not for handling and gas economy.

    Speaking of preferences, I feel you’d be more comfortable with ETFs than with mutual funds for all the reasons you mentioned. I suggest taking another look at low volatility ETFs. SPLV, XMU.TO & ZLB.TO have outperformed the S&P500 in total return since their inceptions 7 to 9 years ago while ZLB.TO has totally annihilated the TSX since its inception in 2011.

Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in