Tech Talk for Wednesday February 12th 2020

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday February 12th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 13 points in pre-opening comments.

Bed Bath and Beyond dropped $3.91 to $10.94 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues and earnings. The company also lowered guidance.

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Visa added $1.86 to $205.80 after Oppenheimer raised its target price from $210 to $220.

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MolsonCoors gained $3.25 to $61.30 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenue and earnings.

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Shopify (SHOP $492.76) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues and earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/02/11/stock-market-outlook-for-february-12-2020/

Note seasonality charts on Emerging Markets iShares, U.S. Job Openings and Crude Oil futures.

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Philip Morris $PM, an S&P 100 stock moved above $89.13 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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MetLife $MET, an S&P 100 stock moved above $52.29 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Seattle Genetics $SGEN, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $122.36 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Check Point $CHKP, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $118.67 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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U.S. Telecommunications iShares $IYZ moved above $30.75 in response to the Sprint/T-Mobil merger judicial decision extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Exelon $EXC, an S&P 100 stock moved above $49.31 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Cisco Systems $CSCO, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $49.54 completing a base building pattern

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Biotech ETF $BBH moved above $143.02 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Observations

Lumber futures price broke above $444.90 to an 18 month high completing a base building pattern.

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Forest product ETFs and stocks on both sides of the border responded to higher lumber prices.

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‘Tis the season for forest product stocks to move higher!

Forest Products Industry Seasonal Chart

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S5FRST Index Relative to the S&P 500
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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 11th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 11th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 11th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.81 to 66.93 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 3.70 to 63.43 yesterday. It changed from intermediate neutral to intermediate overbought on a recovery above 60.00.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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11 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday February 12th 2020”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    SHOP – Another blow out earnings report with revenues up 47$ from year earlier. Up 6% in pre-market. I wish I owned more than I do. It’s easy to predict their future growth simply from their expansion plans for office space.

  2. Rol Lew Says:

    SPLV….

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323085-7-ways-to-beat-market-low-volatility-update-for-2020

    https://www.etf.com/SPLV#overview

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPLV,DIA,QQQ,SPY,IWM,USMC,LGLV,FDLO,JMIN,usmv,FFTY,sphd|D|0

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    SHOP – Popped 19% at the open. I suspect there may have been some less than intelligent people who tried to short it and got blown out of the water.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    I should have added that if you look at the $SPX “Weekly” charts and large Fund charts as well like Mawer has and others you’ll see price tends to ride the 50ema when in uptrends. Price will rally above it and consistently come down and bounce off the 50ema. Like all things it is not perfect as price often goes through the 50ema briefly but will quickly snap back above again when in an uptrend. When price is in a downtrend you’ll see price below the 50ema and come up and stop at the 50ema and pull back down again. That alone tells you price is in a downtrend and bearish or at least correcting even if only going sideways. I’m sure you know this but it is something to watch for. Also I know I post charts with the Modified MACD 50,200,1 and then add a 20ema of that Modified MACD which shows a blue line at zero. And the free version of Stockcharts likely doesn’t allow access to the extra charting settings. So just click on the standard MACD 12,26,9 and change the settings to 50,200,20 and you’ll have the same thing. Or for the little slower version but no whipsaws below the zero line try 50,200,50. The easiest and clearest way to see this Modified MACD is with a Histogram. Same settings of 50,200,20 or 50,200,50 which show it above or below the zero line. I would think you should be able to do that with the free version of Stockcharts. But using a Weekly chart of an ETF or Fund really smooths out the data which will define the trend exceptionally well and ignore for the most part the Daily noise of price action. This is important for trend traders. I know I think short term with the charts especially Daily ones but most of my investments are longer term with reduced risk. But I’ve always believed the stock market is the most risky investment one could have. Just too many factors in the world that can trash the market.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=1994-01-01&id=p08606867450&a=673066405

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Here is the same Weekly chart with the Modified MACD 50,200,20 line chart. (2nd chart.) It shows a small histogram along the zero line. This should be able to be done with a Free version of stockcharts I would guess.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=1994-01-01&id=p34021985315&a=673066405

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    AAPL – Closed at a new all-time high at 327.20. It may start to break higher from the consolidation period it is in.

  7. dave/ab Says:

    Hi Bernie

    Rod Carrick from Globe an Mail wrote about Bristol Gate ETFs. Makes comment that they have a very good dividend growth profile in the states. 1st year in Canada.
    Bristol Gate Concentrated Canadian Equity ETF (BGC-T) and Concentrated U.S. Equity ETF
    Have you followed them? Curious what your thoughts are of their ETFs

  8. Bernie Says:

    dave/ab,

    Thanks for the heads up. I don’t subscribe to the Globe so I didn’t see the article. I’ve the Bristol Gate name mentioned before but don’t know a thing about them. Taking a look under the hood I see each has a very sturdy selection of high DGR dividend growth stocks driving their growth, but MERs are quite high. Both initiated on Feb 20, 2018.

    The Cdn Equity ETF (BGC-T) had a 29.04% TR in 2019. That’s top of the heap in the Cdn dividend equity ETF space. HAL-T was #2 at 28.08%, CDZ-T was 26.06% at #3. The remainder ranged from 25.44% down to 17.31% at #15 (ZWC-T). BGC’s MER of 0.84% was 3rd highest.

    The U.S. Equity ETF (BGU-T) has its MER at 0.85%. Their 2019 TR was also very impressive at 30.25%. I didn’t get a chance to compare it to any other Cdn listed U.S. dividend equity ETFs but suspect it will also be tops.

    I’m still working on DGR calculations for all Cdn and U.S. competitor ETFs to BGC-T and BGU-T. Guaranteed both Bristol Gate ETFs will be dead last in that regard because they’re the only dividend focused ETFs in Canada who don’t pay them. That’s quite surprising considering they focus on growth via high DGR stocks. Apparently Bristol Gate reinvests all dividends collected and then reinvests the proceeds once annually. Retired investors like me who seek immediate income from their holdings will likely take a pass on them but growth investors may like them in their portfolio. There’s also the option to ride the backs of the managers and copycat the ETF top holdings. Often the top 10 collectively beat the mother ETF in performance when purchased in equal weights. Just a thought.

  9. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Thanks again for your TA comments yesterday and today! I’ll likely take a closer look and comment back tomorrow.

  10. Bernie Says:

    Dave/ab,

    You, and/or others here, may like to take a look at the Bristol Gate ETF holdings. I’ve attached their Morningstar.com portfolio pages. All 25 & 22 holdings are listed at the bottom. Very impressive list!

    Bristol Gate Concentrated Canadian Equity ETF (BGC)
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xtse/bgc/portfolio

    Bristol Gate Concentrated US Equity ETF (BGU)
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xtse/bgu/portfolio

  11. Bernie Says:

    Rol Lew,

    Re: #2 SPLV
    Plutos writes some very good articles. I bought a 4% weighting in SPLV last Aug. Its served me well to date.

    Here’s another one from Pluto’s, an update of his beating the market via dividend growth: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323448-7-ways-to-beat-market-dividend-growth-update-for-2020

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