Tech Talk for Thursday March 19th 2020

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday March 19th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 72 points in pre-opening trade.

The New York Stock Exchange announced a move to start fully electronic trading on Monday.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for the March Philly Fed Index was 10.0 versus 36.7 in February. Actual was -12.7. Consensus for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims was an increase to 220,000 from 211,000 last week. Actual was an increase to 281,000

Darden Restaurants (DRI $34.16) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues and earnings.

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Lennar (LEN $30.92) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues and earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/03/18/stock-market-outlook-for-march-19-2020/

Note seasonality charts on U.S. Housing Starts, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and S&P 500 Index.

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Citrix Systems $CTXS, a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $130.14 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Walmart $WMT, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $124.82 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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The U.S. Dollar and its related ETN $UUP surged this morning. The U.S. Dollar moved above 100 to a three year high.

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Editor’s Note: Conversely, other currencies dropped sharply.

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TSX Composite Index briefly moved below its 2016 low at 11,531.22

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Despite the expectation of demand destruction resulting from the coronavirus, the change in the level of gasoline product supplied in the US (a gauge of demand) this year is trending well above average, pulling the days of supply of the commodity below the seasonal norm for this time of year. $STUDY $MACRO $UGA $USO $XLE $XOP

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The change in the number of housing units authorized but not started showing the weakest start to the year on record. Low rates won’t matter much if home builders have no plots of land on which to build and no buyers to buy. $STUDY $MACRO $ITB $XHB

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Observation

North American equity indices bounced from lows set at 2:30 PM EDT yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered 981 points by the close.

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 18th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 18th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 18th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Greg Schnell’s “Market Buzz”

Greg discusses, “The Global Breakdown”. Following is a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PZJfv6upYM&feature=youtu.be

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.60 to 4.01 yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold, but has yet to show significant technical evidence of bottoming.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 2.62 to 1.31 yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold, but has yet to show significant technical evidence of bottoming.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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9 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday March 19th 2020”

  1. bruce morris Says:

    the AAII survey surprisingly shows the bulls plus 4.6% to 34.4% and bears still 51.1% down 0.2%……je suis surprised….

  2. sp Says:

    hi, anyone using TD webbroker, lots of problems with this platform, and even telephone is problem too.

  3. PatVic Says:

    Questrade was having a few few hiccups too

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Gotta love that U.S.$…..MMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm GOOD.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    OH, Here is the U.S.$ ETF chart. Prefer the actual cash but an ETF is another way to trade or invest in it without the cost of switching.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10344407097&a=673066373

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    And here is the Canadian dollar that has just tagged the 2016 low support and is very oversold. Wish I could unemotionally part with my U.S.$s to switch back to some CD$ but I just can’t do it. BUTTTTTTTTTTT if this 68 cent support breaks down that’s a whole new ball game and could see price fall to its low of 2002 at 62 cents. That sure would make the U.S.$ the currency to hold and invest and trade in. I recall back then the financial press calling the CD$ the Canadian Peso. Note I’ve overlaid $WTIC over the CD$ and see how closely they track together.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32402991049&a=728774840

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CAD&p=D&st=1970-08-25&en=(today)&id=p96329476303&a=673066186

  7. wsto Says:

    #2 sp
    Yes tons of problems with the TD trading platform. Last month I put in an order, tried to change it, but the modify button was missing. Called TD they told me to try again later. The button reappeared 2 hours later, but given the volatility of this market, you can easily miss out on an opportunity or lose a lot of money in even a 2 min window.

  8. Paula Says:

    Rob/BC,
    Thanks for the charts. Yes my USD account is doing great. Nice to have that reserve.
    For anyone who is interested, here is a link to a ~ 20 minute webinar by Alexander Elder:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKH0wtp8SWw&feature=youtu.be

    I got the link in an email since I am on his mailing list but not a subscriber to his service. Ordinarily there is a charge to join his webinars but he considers this one a “public service during these turbulent time.”
    He has an interesting observation about the NHNL index. I am still trying to replicate in stockcharts. And he expects a “W” bottom, so big rally, then retest.

    http://schrts.co/gXXwGvtg

    Ron, I found this chart of yours from last year but no annotations. Do you still have it and care to update? I am keeping your VIX chart open and believe it will reveal a good opportunity, if I can patiently wait for it.

    http://schrts.co/DzhiUTUq

  9. KHBoker Says:

    Paula, nice link, thanks here is another $NY high low chart. (reader buy very very seldom post) 🙂

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYHL&p=W&st=2007-03-19&id=p18554242719

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