Tech Talk for Friday March 20th 2020

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday March 20th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 51 points in pre-opening trade.

Today is Quadruple Witching Day, the last trading day for March index and equity listed options and futures.

The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at U.S. 70.03 cents following release of January Canadian Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in December. Actual was an increase of 0.4%.

UnitedHealth Group gained $5.23 to $225.03 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

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Nike added $1.16 to $71.50 after Bank of America/Merrill upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.

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Wal-Mart added $3.74 to $123.19 after announcing plans to hire 150,000 temporary workers.

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Oracle improved $1.73 to $46.80 after JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/03/19/stock-market-outlook-for-march-20-2020/

Note seasonality charts on Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Index.

Observation

The U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETN continue to surge.

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By definition, other major currencies are under substantial technical pressure, most notably the Euro on a break below107.82. .

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Gilead $GILD moved above $82.80 to a 4 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 19th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 19th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 19th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 2.00 to 2.00 yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold and has yet to show significant technical signs of bottoming.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 2.62 to 1.31 yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold and has yet to show significant technical signs of bottoming.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday March 20th 2020”

  1. Canuck2004 Says:

    Billionaire Jimmy Pattison says Canada not in a recession despite COVID-19 uncertainty

    He’s a BC billionaire that I’ve followed for decades, bought what he bought and made good profits. I agree with him….

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/billionaire-jimmy-pattison-says-canada-not-in-a-recession-despite-covid-19-uncertainty-1.1409076

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    Re:#8 on the 19th.
    Here is the $SPX chart back that you had saved from a year ago and all I did was remove the invisible setting to solid to show actual movement over top the average lines. But the bottom line is you can see the big spikes in the Low Index matches significant lows in the $SPX. I don’t recall exactly what I was working towards using the HL Index but turning points would be the key for price along with whether the HL Index was above or below the 50 line. So just taking bullish signals when the HL Index is above the 50 line would be a safer way to trade rather than bottom picking. And just taking bearish trades when below the 50 line would be a safer trade as well. I likely missed something there but that’s all I can recall about it.

    Also here is the Bullish Percent Index with buy & sells signals. Perhaps a combination of breadth indicators would be best to filter out buy and sell signals collectively.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40302826906&a=728992172

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72770303647&a=673066278

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    I see Ford suspended their dividend and after the bell Delta suspended their dividend as well. I think you’ll see many more do the same and perhaps some will cut their dividend. No one wants to be the first but will join in when someone else does it.

  4. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    There’s really no surprise Ford and Delta suspended their dividends. Both are cyclical businesses which often have shaky dividend policies at the best of times. Ford wasn’t considered a dividend growth stock to begin with. Their dividend history shows they only began paying dividends in 2013-Q3. They did have 2 consecutive raises in 2014 & 2015 but then froze it at the same level for 5 years before suspending it this year. Delta (DAL) also began paying dividends in 2013 and then raised theirs for 6 consecutive years, the last being in mid 2019. There are only 3 other airline stocks considered dividend growth stocks in North America, Alaska (ALK) & Southwest (LUV) in the U.S. and Exchange Income (EIF.TO) in Canada. I’ve owned EIF.TO since 2009. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the other 3 follow suit and suspend their dividends as well. Their stock prices have fallen 45% to 64% since the market meltdown began Feb 11th. Such is life with dividend payers in cyclical industries. “You pays your money and takes your chances”. Canadians who invested in commodities like O&G and basic materials know it all to well. Thankfully I rid my portfolio of them in 2014 but stuck with the pipes, TRP & ENB in my RRIF and PPL & KEY in my TFSA. Hopefully we survive this recession/bear market as well as we did the financial crisis. Manulife was the only Canadian large cap which cut their dividend in 2008-11

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    I wouldn’t know squat about the dividend thing so your explanation is as good as anyone’s.

    Hard to believe XEG.to is down to under $3 bucks. It’s either a gift or is going off the board.

    Top 10 Holdings (86.97% of Total Assets)
    Get Quotes for Top Holdings
    Name Symbol % Assets
    Suncor Energy Inc SU.TO 27.98%
    Canadian Natural Resources Ltd CNQ.TO 27.39%
    Cenovus Energy Inc CVE.TO 10.24%
    Imperial Oil Ltd IMO.TO 6.95%
    Tourmaline Oil Corp TOU.TO 2.84%
    Parex Resources Inc PXT.TO 2.68%
    PrairieSky Royalty Ltd PSK.TO 2.63%
    Vermilion Energy Inc VET.TO 2.13%
    ARC Resources Ltd ARX.TO 2.10%
    Crescent Point Energy Corp CPG.TO 2.03%

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03420382156&a=710434178

  6. Ana Says:

    #2. Paula,

    Thank you for re-posting Ron/BC’s charts.

    My swing/day trading charts show more down on the weekly chart.

    Stay healthy!

  7. rocketdave Says:

    Does anyone know what goes up in a recession or a depression???
    I think maybe real estate, precious metals, and groceries???

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana

    I got thinking about short term trades as that’s all I used to do. Actually that’s all I still do,lol. Not so much day trades but prefer swing trades if I’m not preoccupied mentally or physically. So here is a chart I made up of the VIX one year period. The buy and sell signals are marked with vertical red or green dotted lines and are based on the RSI 21 being above or below the 50 line. Being a VIX chart, below the 50 line remains bullish and above the 50 line remains bearish. I also put a 10ema and 50ema on the VIX chart that shows the crossovers. Moving averages tend to be slow and these are slower than the RSI 21 moves above and below the 50 line. And if you shorten them up you’ll get whipsaws. In any case I thought you might be able to use this at times in your trading tool box. Bottom line: Market is bearish below the RSI 21 fifty line and bullish above it.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56267624951&a=729385149

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana

    Error #8: Last line should read broad MARKET IS BULLISH “BELOW THE $VIX 50 LINE” and BEARISH ABOVE THE $VIX 50 LINE. (Sorry for yelling),lol……………

  10. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks for your #2 on Mar 20. And for your VIX chart and comments for Ana as well as the clarification…

    RE: XEG.TO. It is shocking to see it at this price. I am glad I gave up on this ETF a number of years ago. Prefer to own the top 2 names: CNQ and SU. Vastly outperforming but of course still down absolutely. Here is an old chart of MICK/NV (WHERE IS HE?):

    http://schrts.co/QUibBwsY

  11. Paula Says:

    Ana,
    Thanks for your #6 on Mar 21. Ron/BC’s charts are really worth saving, visiting and sharing…glad you agree.

    Yes, I wish everyone stays healthy!

  12. ana Says:

    #8 Ron/BC

    Thank you for the comments and chart!

    Sometimes I need someone to yell, to remind me!!!

    $SPX Futures -117 -(4.66%)

    Wondering if the stimulus package will be voted in,in the USA, which might change things. Those swing traders, keep that in mind when the market opens tomorrow
    morning.

    Rand Paul has Covid-19…

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