Tech Talk for Wednesday March 25th 2020

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday March 25th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 27 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the February Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a decline of 0.8% versus an upwardly revised gain of 0.1% in January. Actual was an increase of 1.2%. Excluding Transportation Orders, consensus was a drop of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.6% in January. Actual was a drop of 0.6%.

Nike gained $7.18 to $79.51 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues.

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Boeing (BA $127.68) is expected to open higher in anticipation of resumption of flight of its 737 Max aircraft in May.

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Apple added $0.18 to $247.06 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

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Paychex gained $1.21 to $60.77 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/03/24/stock-market-outlook-for-march-25-2020/

Note seasonality chart on New Home Sales.

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Nil

 

Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 24th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 24th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 24th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Observation

Dow soars over 11% in best day since 1933 on hope for plan to rescue economy from coronavirus.

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer improved 0.40 to 1.60 yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer gained 3.04 to 4.35 yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday March 25th 2020”

  1. Roy Says:

    Looks like the market bounce is continuing today
    Would anyone know where is the half way point between the market top and the extreme low point on the S&P that happened recently?

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Roy

    2811.77 is the 1/2 way pt between the high and low of the $SPX.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30795462611&a=693577605

  3. tony Says:

    roy

    Answer to your question 2800

  4. Roy Says:

    Thats a long way up from here
    Thanks gentlemen.

  5. Canuck2004 Says:

    Nice pop on open…better than expected. New 50% target on TSX is around 14,500ish and S&P 500 2790ish….when they get close to that, expect a retest on the last low….may or may not happen, but normally does after a strong relief rally off the bottom.

    If it successfully retests, then next move is to climb above the 50% target for the all clear.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Nice $40+ bounce of solid support at $212. Price is now up against its downtrendline and 200ema plus the early Dec and late Feb low of $256. THAT is a lot of resistance to blow through. Seeing is believing……………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69220319394&a=730041435

  7. Canuck2004 Says:

    Ross Healy keeps decades of data to formulate his targets…the S&P500 has a hundred years of data available. Ross said that support is 2175 at twice book, the market hit 2191, close enough.

    One has to focus on the forest, not the trees or get involved in each leaf of every tree. Targets are not written in stone, they are approximate….trading is like cooking, there’s an art to it. Technical analysis is a wind sock, not an exact science.

    In 2008, the VIX was able to hold only six trading days above 70 and at this point we’ve had five. This is a similar situation. The sheer pitch of panic selling cannot be sustained at these levels, it is an extreme emotional situation. It is emotionally exhausting, draining, tiring. The market cannot move up until all the panic sellers have sold.

    All this is purely technical in nature, nothing to do with news, stimulus packages, etc. totally technical. I’ve seen it before many times, but this reminds me a lot of October 1987. At that time, the market retraced to about 50% peak to through, tested the bottom, broke above the 50% line and continued its up trend. A classic quick, violent, deep, Bull Market correction. I see no reason that this technical event will not repeat itself. There were no home computers in those days, no internet, charts had to be built from data from newspapers, with graph paper, a ruler and a pencil.

    This event is all emotional, behind every trade is a human, behind every computer there’s a human.

    “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

    “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” an early study of crowd psychology by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. Nothing changes, humans are still humans and subject to their emotions.

  8. wsto Says:

    Are these reasonable resistance points?

    s&p 2600
    tsx 13600

  9. Ana Says:

    $SPX Futures

    My swing and day trading charts indicate the down direction.

    My best guess today, is 2210.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Wsto

    Here is a Daily chart of $SPX. Resistance levels are first being the Fibonnacci 38.2% retracment level of the Feb-March selloff at 2650. Next is the Oct & Feb lows at 2855 which is just above the Fib 50% retracement level at 2800. Then the Fib 61.8% retracement level at 2935. Price has broken the downtrendline so is trying to rally once again. The rally so far isn’t worth mentioning as any descent rally tends to retrace at least the Fib 38.2% level. But it depends of course on the mindset of the big boys that determine such things. My guess would be a rally to 2800 to 2855 but we all know what guesses are worth. Overall though the selloff has been extreme and all those that were short have plenty to cheer about and not likely to give it all back again on a big rally. That will cause them to cover those shorts which rallies the market just like bullish buyers. And smart money will see this and chase those short sellers all the way back up again. It’s a mugs game…………………………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p54677533326&a=725299577

  11. wsto Says:

    Re#10 Ron/BC
    Thanks for the chart. Is there an easy way to gauge outstanding short positions in the market? Perhaps ETFs that track put/call ratios on major indices?

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Wsto

    I believe there is but I haven’t looked at that info and where to look for it for years. But there are public records of the short interest and it’s extremes along with puts and calls and the C.O.T.Reports. That is the sort of info that would be best received from some financial business that sells that info and makes recommendations based on the past history of it. Perhaps someone on this site knows of a site that specializes in short sales data.

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