Tech Talk for Friday April 3rd 2020

Daily Reports Add comments

Pre-opening Comments for Friday April 3rd

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 6 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved higher following release of the U.S. March Employment Report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for March Non-farm Payrolls was a drop of 123,000 versus a revised gain of 275,000 in February. Actual was a drop of 701,000. Consensus for the March Unemployment Rate was an increase to 3.9% from 3.5% in February. Actual was an increase to 4.4%. Consensus for March Average Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.4%.

Tesla gained $81.64 to536.11 after announcing higher than consensus first quarter deliveries.

clip_image001

Twitter added $1.02 to $24.04 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.

clip_image002[1]

Restaurants International slipped $0.06 to $34.75U.S. after Stifel Nicolaus lowered its target price from $76 to $60.

clip_image003

 

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/04/02/stock-market-outlook-for-april-3-2020/

Note seasonality charts on Non-farm Payrolls and Natural Gas Storage.

 

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Nil

 

Trader’s Corner

Editor’s Comment: Note the commodities and sectors that moved above their 20 day moving average yesterday, an encouraging sign.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 2nd 2020

clip_image002

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 2nd 2020

clip_image004

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 2nd 2020

clip_image006

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

clip_image007

The Barometer added 2.40 to 5.41 yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold and continues to show early technical signs of bottoming.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

clip_image008

The Barometer added 2.61 to 5.65 yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold and continues to show early technical signs of bottoming.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



29 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday April 3rd 2020”

  1. Canuck2004 Says:

    No upside finish to the week from the open, we will see what the market does by the close….however, this week a lot better than last week.

    Biggest daily drop on the DOW was about half of last week. More sideways movement all week as the market is trying to find its footing. Not unusual as the market digests the last big drop and is deciding where to go from here. I don’t think we will se a retest, too early I suspect.

    In 2008, every succeeding week after the October drop was less volatile than the previous week, traders getting used to the wild volatility….

    The VIX is weakening, looks like it wants to roll over…bullish for markets.

    Oil recovered big time yesterday but TSX and CAD did not move much…it’s a “show me” market…talk doesn’t work here. Demand destruction is severe, no amount of production cut is going to make a difference. Cities are deserted.

    I’m not saying we will recover all lost ground in a flash, not gonna happen…lots of damage to confidence here and that takes a while to repair itself….”market climbs a wall of worry”.

    But I think going forward we will see every new week, better that the last. We will improve slowly as we march forward. The worst is behind us as long as no new Black Swan event falls upon us. We will get a V recovery, but it will take months rather than weeks, but months rather than years.

    Must look at this market weekly rather than daily….as every new story will propel market upwards or downwards on daily basis. Ultra sensitive to any news…but this will slow in time.

    A lot depends on how long this insane lockdown continues….every day this ridiculous overreaction goes on, the terrible damage to the economy may not be recoverable for some businesses. It is imperative that people get back to work ASAP….otherwise we will get a recession, or worse. The total economic shut down cure is worse than the disease. This never happened in 2010 with the H1N1 swine flu….which was way more deadly: 17k dead in US, 500k dead worldwide….we are nowhere near those numbers.

    For some perspective, look at this 5 year TSX weekly chart:

    Note the extreme rapidity of the market collapse, the extreme depth. Note the Bullish V shape RSI recovery, note the Bullish Full Stochastic trying to recover from extreme oversold. Compare with previous drops in 2019 and 2016. Extreme to say the least.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TSX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85630058019

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Here is a link regarding travel from Langford to Victoria. You can browse through it and might find something of value. I’m sure there are other sources of info on bus service. Keep in mind while prices are cheaper for housing in the Western Communities there are costs in dollars and time as well. Getting to a bus stop and taking a 1/2 hour ride at least weather and traffic permitting can take its toll. It’s colder as well out that way with far more snow as well. You can buy a townhouse in Victoria (or Langford area) and rent out a small suite you can put in that they call a mortgage helper that will level the playing field a lot. Renters pay a lot for any type of housing here regardless of where it is. We all have our own priorities. Mine has always been traffic, time and services so prefer the main parts of Victoria. Lots of people in the main city areas don’t need a vehicle as the bus service is most everywhere and repeats all day. That alone saves a lot of time, money and costs. I know a contractor that moved out to the Western Communities and bought a new van and within 5 years had extremely high mileage on it and mechanical issues. Lots of ways to assess value. So all these things need to be considered. And the Western Communities is the fastest growing area in B.C. I believe. Trouble is the traffic has become insane and getting worse and they can’t build more roads to get into Victoria areas. Also the Ridge Golf Course is very hilly like many courses here. (All that glitters is not Gold)

    https://www.rome2rio.com/s/Langford/Victoria

  3. Rol Lew Says:

    https://tinyurl.com/sjnjg2j

    https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-money-is-everything

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Rol Lew

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0kcet4aPpQ

  5. JP/BC Says:

    Re #4: The song commonly says that money is the root of evil.
    The Bible actually says, in 1 Timothy 6:10 “For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil.” This puts the responsibility on the person that worships money rather than the money itself. Money is neither good nor bad in of itself.

  6. Canuck2004 Says:

    Here is an interesting site. Great to track COVID-19.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    However compare with previous Pandemics or even the usual yearly flu season. Nowhere near as bad….huge over-reaction here….and even larger economic destruction with lockdowns. Nothing like this in 2010. Today it’s media driven….all hype and panic.

    Comparisons to other pandemics and epidemics

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#Comparisons_to_other_pandemics_and_epidemics

  7. JP/BC Says:

    This is for Bernie. I went through your post on your real estate situation. If you have your heart set on living in the western communities, might I suggest that your wife consider a job at a car dealership in Colwood, rather than in town. There is a Pattison Subaru for example. Ron did a great job pointing out the problems with the commute into town. If you value your wife’s time, doing that commute is like a pay cut.

    If you would like to chat about life in Victoria, my email is toscana(@)shaw.ca

  8. JP/BC Says:

    I have a dividend question. We recently heard that Ford has suspended it’s dividend. When we are told that the big five banks have never cut their dividend, I had never considered whether they have “suspended” their dividend. Has that happened? Have dividends been suspended in the more stable large cap stocks in sectors like utilities?

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    JP/BC

    Here is a link to a list of companies cutting their dividends. I said some time ago that once a few big names start to cut their dividends many more will join the herd. They just don’t want to be the first but need the cash to stay afloat.

    https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T018-S001-20-dividend-stocks-to-fund-20-years-of-retirement/index.html

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    JP/BC

    RE:#9 Wrong link

    Here is the link to companies cutting their dividends..

    https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T018-S001-15-dividend-cuts-and-suspensions-coronavirus/index.html

  11. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC & JP/BC,

    Thanks much for your valued info and opinions on the Western Communities. You make very good points on the disadvantages of long commute times! We aren’t “set” on living in the WC, we’d much rather live right in Victoria…if the price is in our ballpark. We’ve thought about taking on renters in the past, just not into the hassle.

  12. Bernie Says:

    JP/BC,
    Its not surprising that Ford suspended or cut their dividend. Their business is very cyclical and their stock has never been considered dividend growth anyway. Since the turn of the century F raised & cut their dividend twice and froze it for long stretches the remainder of the time. A suspension is really the same as a cut because the annual payout is reduced.

    Historical dividend info older than 20 years is hard to come by. I wanted to know the same thing as you so I emailed the big 5 bank’s Investor Relations back in 2014 to get more info. I asked each of them if they had ever cut their dividend and if so when was it cut. All 5 answered my query. TD, BNS and CM never cut in their history going back over 150 years. TY and BMO last cut in 1942 during WW2. All 5 have frozen their dividend at the same level on occasion the last time being from mid 2009 to early 2011. An outright dividend suspension among the Canadian large cap dividend paying companies is extremely rare. I’ve only heard of one that being BCE in 2008 when they suspended theirs for 2 quarters to ready themselves for a takeover by the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan. They resumed their dividend at the same level when the deal fell through. As for Utility dividend growth stocks I only know of one which cut, AQN, in 2009 for tax reasons when they incorporated from an income trust. TransAlta cut in 2016 but, like Ford, were never considered a dividend grower. I don’t know of any others. Utilities CU at 48 years and FTS at 46 years have the longest dividend growth streak in Canada. Other sector large cap growers who cut were TRP (Energy) in 1999, NA in the early 90’s and MFC in 2009.
    Are you aware of the Canadian Dividend All-Star List? Its a free monthly updated list of Canadian companies that have increased their dividend for 5 or more calendar years in a row. There’s lots of useful dividend metrics in it in excel spreadsheet form. It can be downloaded from here: https://www.dividendgrowthinvestingandretirement.com/canadian-dividend-all-star-list/

  13. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC & JP/BC,

    Re: #10

    Ron your linked list is restricted to U.S. dividend cutters. Not sure how many of them are dividend growers. Here is a link to Canadian companies who cut during the virus outbreak/recession. I see three that are on the CDAS List but, so far, no large cap dividend growers.
    https://www.stocktrades.ca/canadian-companies-that-cut-their-dividends/

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Ok,thanks. I’m certainly no expert in dividends and far more interested in a price chart. All my adult life price has always been king with everything I’ve dealt with. Not easy trying to think like a dividend collector. Makes me feel like I have to hold my hat out,lol.

  15. JP/BC Says:

    Thanks so much Bernie. I have saved the links you provided.

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    NTR

    I’m constantly hearing the elite tell me and others to “stay safe” with their superior know it all attitude. Most everyone knows by now to keep their distance from other people and to do what they must to keep their hands clean & cough into their elbow for their own sake and others. This holier than thou attitude about staying safe is condescending and arrogant both of which I find aggravating. Anyone who gets too close to me I just put my hand out and say excuse me. They know exactly what I mean without me being insulting. And they are far less likely to forget the next time they meet someone else as they do feel embarrassed. I just have two words for those that tell me to “stay safe”, ……. and for them to get over themselves. I’m not going to stay home and cower under the bed as I will live my life the way I see fit and responsible and use my discretion as I always have.

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    I don’t recall if I posted this info before but Tangerine online bank is paying 3% on cash in a Savings account and also 3% in a TFSA account. This rate offer ends May 31st but I’ve often taken their offer and near the end of it phone them and ask if they are extending the offer. I also tell them if not I’ll remove all of my money from them. They tend to extend the offer. They didn’t last time so I removed my cash and put it in EQ Bank. But getting 3% in a Savings account and even better getting 3% in a TFSA account that you can remove anytime with no penalty is a good rate and better than most. I put in most of my available cash and maxed out my TFSA limit and am happy about that.

  18. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #14

    Ron, your perspective is more of a trader than a buy & monitor/hold investor. Over a longer term a dividend’s contribution to total return is greater than most realize.

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2016/03/30/dividends-true-contribution-to-total-return-may-surprise-you

  19. Bernie Says:

    JP/BC,

    I forgot to include a link to the U.S. listed dividend growers, ie; the U.S. Dividend Champions. Its also updated monthly and can be downloaded in either excel spreadsheet or PDF format (see upper left in link).
    https://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp

    I consider the U.S. & Cdn lists to be my DGI bibles. lol

  20. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Thanks for that link. I’ll spend some time on it later. Right now I HAVE TO go for a long walk on the beach to forget about the boggy man (virus) or I’ll lose it.

    Also I emailed my realtor and asked her where townhouses are that cost under $500K and allow dogs and are not in the Western Communities. She sent me this link. I see there are only 6 places which surprised me. I see that most are in the Sydney area which is by the Ferries and Airport but is one of the most attractive by the sea areas you can find in Victoria but also a 20 minute highway drive straight into Victoria city. But townhouses are a lot more expensive than a condo. As an example the link I get for condos that also excludes Western Communities up to $500K number about 150 to 250. Lots in the $300K range. So it crossed my mind that if there was a way you could happily live in a condo and have your dog you’d save at least $100K or more. Lots of people in condos here have dogs and the owners take them for walks daily. Townhouse owners cant simply put their dog out in the back yard to bark daily. My building doesn’t allow any animals or rentals but that is rare. Just something to think about as even townhouses have a strata board rules and regulations. This lady realtor can if you wish put you on automatic emails that send you listings that are within your parameters.

    https://www.victoriamls.ca/DE.asp?k=443429XPLQF&p=DE-49488412-309

  21. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Thanks, we looked at the condo option. We even came across one in Langford that was a lower level end unit with a fenced in yard. Unfortunately that one was only a one bedroom and ~800 sq ft. Our dog is 8 1/2 now. At times she needs to go out to do her business in the middle of the night along with her usual 3 to 5 times during the rest of the day & evening. She is used to being let out on her own into a fenced in yard. I sure don’t want to take her for a walk 6 times a day when she needs to go and she is too old now to be taught to relieve herself on an indoor pad.

    Have a look at the place in the link below. We thought we had found a house that had everything we were looking for and was 100-150K cheaper than the condo we were looking at. When we first looked at the listing there was no mention of a strata fee…even better we thought so we called the realtor that we’ve been using in Victoria. He gave us the hard reality. The house was cheaper because it is a double wide manufactured house on native owned property, ie; a leasehold which we had never heard of before other than rented pads in trailer parks. He informed us the leasehold is $425/mo and there is also a strata fee of $247. End-all they want $672/mo on top of what we pay for a place that could conceivably be taken over should the land owners decide to take back their land. Lesson learned look for freehold instead of leasehold. This experience also has us thinking that maybe we should broaden our search to include newish houses that meet our requirements but don’t have strata fees. We’d be further ahead to buy a slightly more expensive house and pay the difference off on our line of credit. Anyway I’ve linked the property mentioned above. Its in Saanichton-Central Saanich so its less of a commute than from Sydney or the townhouses in the Western Communities. If you see something like this one please let me know.
    https://www.victoriamls.ca/Matrix/Public/Portal.aspx?k=443429XPLQF&p=DE-49488412-309#1

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Your link is roughly the same as my link in #20. And yes there are some questionable homes here for sure including co-op housing. I’d stay away from all of them as well. With normal homes a lot of people put in suites to help pay the bills or pay down the mortgage. Not something I would enjoy but is often the only way the bank will give you a mortgage. Always something to deal with. Even now with this virus a renter can refuse to pay you your rent and there is little you can do about it. Putting a gun in their face would cause you trouble too,lol. Another option is to drive up Island a little ways and buy a home and yard for dramatically less money. Cowichan Bay and Shawnigan lake and even Duncan or Crofton or Mill Bay and other small towns all the way up to Nanaimo which is a good sized city are surprisingly less money. Don’t know if you’ve considered those options or not but many have and have bought exceptional homes for up to 40% less money. And these homes are right along the ocean too and don’t have the traffic of Victoria. It’s a quick drive from these areas to Victoria. Try that link you mentioned again as I don’t think it was what you mentioned.

  23. dave/ab Says:

    NTR

    It may not be socially excepted. But hell with that. Wear a mask. CDC and Who all coming out and saying wear something even if it is homemade.

  24. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Sorry, not the right link. This is the MLS #423725. My wife has mentioned Duncan a few times and would live there but I’m really not interested in being further out than 20 min to downtown Vic. The more I think about it the more I would prefer a home with no strata fees.

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    Yes,that’s a lovely home all right with a great price. BUTTTTTTTTTTTT (there is always a but,lol) you don’t own the land,just the house and it’s leased. I wouldn’t touch it with a 10 ft pole but I’m no expert on those situations. Basic strata fees are annoying but they are nice to have when you need a major repair done and don’t have to pay the bill as “most” repairs come out of the contingency fund that everyone else in that complex pays into with their strata fees. Always nice to know. But the Sydney area is a great place to live for sure and the main city street is Beacon Avenue where all the small shops are and with the harbor at the end of the street which is a beautiful walkway. I almost bought out there but it is a 20 minute drive to downtown Victoria and even though it’s a straight in drive on the #1 highway I didn’t want to deal with that. So the area up the Island has better prices and single family homes and are not far in distance or time from Victoria. I did contract work up in the Mill Bay area for one builder for a couple of years every day and as impatient as I am never had a problem driving it. Another option is to rent a place in Victoria to get a feel for the areas before buying. I did that after selling my home and banked the cash for 3 years before buying a condo here. Was hard to give up a big chunk of cash but forced myself into it as rents started to really jump up. And now with so many home owners needing cash you could likely get a good deal on rent prices. Your dog isn’t going to live forever either so renting and getting to know the areas would be very helpful for making such a major decision like buying a home. I know of all the homes I’ve bought and then had to buy another the pressure to buy ‘something’ is enormous. Renting in between gives you the edge and the home seller tends to be the one all the pressure is on. And with a recession if not depression next on the horizon it would be nice to have a bank full of cash available and the ability to move wherever you wish.

  26. Bernie Says:

    JP/BC,

    Re: #7
    I forgot to thank you for your offer to correspond via email. I’m not brave enough to post my email addresses on a public board because both of them have my name in the address. I’ll send you a message with my info shortly. If you have Rob/BC’s email perhaps you could pass along mine to him as well. I’m feeling a bit guilty of late over posting so many NTR messages. Perhaps private dialog would be more prudent so I’m not accused of hijacking the board.

  27. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Excellent points Ron! We’ve discussed renting as well. Its just not as much fun (LOL) as it was when I was younger. Ideally, one more move and that’s it! Maybe…

  28. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    You’d do great renting as you have patience if you can buy stocks and hold them for a dividend even when they selloff,lol. I rented for 3 years as after being a home owner all my adult life as I wasn’t familiar with what condos and townhouses were all about. Your perceptions of all the areas of Victoria or up island need to be thoroughly understood and fitted to your lifestyle, including strata fees and rules and regulations. And you may find a single family home with the perfect basement suite to rent out which the bank will love your mortgage business when you have the option of waiting. And you’d need to live here for some time first to understand what your priorities are. No one can tell you what suits you best. Meanwhile it’s nice to have hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank to give you peace of mind and have a clear mind as to what you can spend and where you wish to live for the long term. And it’s a real bonus when you have that cash and can make what you consider a fair offer on a place knowing the owners are the hungry ones that need a sale and you can take as much time as possible until you get the deal you want. I made several offers on a few places until this last one they accepted my offer. The money I saved will pay for most of the renovations I want now. Definitely something to consider even if you stayed in a motel and stored your furniture for a few months. You have a lot of power and control when you are flush with cash.

  29. Ana Says:

    $SPX Futures

    https://invst.ly/qcqf7

Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in