Tech Talk for Friday May 15th 2020

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 15th

 

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 34 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for April Retail Sales was a drop of 12.0% versus a decline of 8.4% in March. Actual was a drop of 16.4% Excluding auto sales, consensus for April Retail Sales was a drop of 8.6% versus a decline of 4.2% in March. Actual was drop of 17.2%. Consensus for May Empire State Manufacturing Survey was a drop of 60.0 versus a decline of 78.2 in April. Actual was a drop of 48.5.

Aurora Cannabis jumped $1.07 to $7.71 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues.

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Yum Brands added $0.15 to $83.44 after Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

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VF Corp dropped $2.10 to $53.34 after reporting lower than consensus fiscal fourth quarter revenues and earnings.

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JC Penney dropped $0.03 to $0.16 on reports that its bankruptcy filing is imminent.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/05/14/stock-market-outlook-for-may-15-2020/

Technical Notes

Late strength in U.S. equity markets was triggered by rumors that Goldman Sachs was considering a takeover of Wells Fargo.

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Kinross (K KGC), a TSX 60 stock moved above $10.19 Cdn and $7.25 U.S. with strength in the price of gold extending an intermediate uptrend.

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European equities, indices and ETFs (EWU) remain under technical pressure.

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Silver iShares (SLV) moved above $14.80 resuming an intermediate uptrend. Silver equities and related ETFs (SIL) quickly followed.

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 14th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 14th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 14th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer gained 5.41 to 58.12 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.68 to 58.93 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Next Tech Talk Report

Despite Monday, May 18th being a federal statutory Canadian holiday; Tech Talk will be available for our subscribers.   Stay safe.  Stay well.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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20 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday May 15th 2020”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Cramer Is Stating The Obvious Here – A Trade War Is Like Mutually Assured Destruction
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/cramer-says-this-is-not-the-time-to-start-a-trade-war-with-china.html

  2. Ana Says:

    Very short term head and shoulders:

    https://invst.ly/qtk30

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Ana – I’m going to pay close attention to your short-term head and shoulders posts and see if they will help get me focused better on short-term movements. I’m looking at the candlestick from yesterday and it looks somewhat bullish to me. I’m wondering if we go into a sideways box but I suspect we will eventually get some testing of the 50 day MA and ultimately some second bottom in the 2400 to 2600 range at a future date.

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    Buying the best stock in a sector.
    Buying the best quality in everything pays off. When I was big on Cdn banks I kept buying CM for the div but TD would keep outperforming. With semis you can see it today with NVDA vs SOXX.
    NVDA just released a new chip that can run several different programs at the same time on one chip which enables data centres to maximize the sheer computing power of the storage space. They built a special server centered around these chips. It’s incredible as it uses the same storage space but makes it do several times more than it would ordinarily do. It’s like going from a closet with a few shelves wasting space to an IKEA unit with every inch of space efficiently used.
    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-launches-chip-aimed-data-130623496.html

  5. Ana Says:

    #3. Larry/ON

    I hope you cashed in on that 15 point move down! That was a head and shoulders pattern on the one minute chart, those seem to work, however the larger ones have not worked out lately.

    I trade on the one minute and five minute when I am day trading, something you have to get used to, but I always keep my eye on the daily, five hour and thirty minute as well for major support and resistance lines.

    Day trading demands focus and it is work! It is like a full time job. It is easier when there is a major trend under way then you can switch back to swing trading and catch the move over night. When I enter a trade, I either have a stop loss or my target as my exit.

    I switched back to $SPX and have not traded futures

  6. Rol Lew Says:

    watch replay……

    https://www.simplertrading.com/insane-replay/?utm_campaign=simpler-insights–pv&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nightly-free&utm_content=2020_05_14-PLACE-1stAd_Head

    (a.k.a. going to great lengths to try to predict the next move, up/down)

    kramers covid index (excl UPWK)

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?lvgo,sq,pton,bynd,coup,evbg,net,masi,mrna,dxcm,upwk|D|0

    Question….

    does anyone know how to display these as a composite.
    not possible with stock charts, or bigcharts. hard to believe that there is noting out there that can do it.

  7. Paula Says:

    Ana,
    I admire your ability to day trade. I can’t think that fast. I tried it about 20 years ago but found it too stressful. When you say you switched back to $SPX and have not traded futures, did you used to trade futures? Do you use SPY or what do you actually trade?

  8. Larry/ON Says:

    NVDA up 5.5% – Not bad.

  9. Larry/ON Says:

    Rol Lew – Thanks for those charts. I have to take some time and go over Cramer’s Covid Index. There are some high growth companies in there that are interesting.

  10. Roy Says:

    Larry/On
    NET seems like a good one. Thoughts on any other?

  11. Bernie Says:

    Just thought I’d throw this “contrarian view” article out there for our Timing The Market bloggers. Again, I’m just being the messenger, I’m not taking a side.

    https://www.adviceforinvestors.com/news/investment-strategy/staying-the-course-is-harder-than-it-looks/

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    As the deer found out and unlike his friends he did not run for cover, he just sat there (safely he thought). The lesson is: “Even if you just sit there you still get run over.”

    Will Rogers Quotes:
    “Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.”

    Just teasing you Bernie as I know there are lots of ways to skin a cat…………
    And I think you are taking a side,lol……………..

  13. Larry/ON Says:

    Roy – The growth of revenue of PTON is phenomenal along with the share price. I was skeptical last year but Covid-19 makes them an obvious winner if you can’t go to a gym anymore. Price is a little extended now with a gap from 7 trading days ago. You are right about NET. Cloud services is a very good space to be in and they are having huge rev growth

  14. Larry/ON Says:

    RE 11. Here is a quote along similar lines.

    “In a bear market the most important skill is to be a good seller. In a bull market the hardest thing to do is to stay with your winners.”

    Everyone feels smart when they take a profit on something while they wait for another stock in the portfolio that is not doing so well to rebound. Usually it is the one that is not doing well that needs to be reexamined and trimmed or sold. You can end up holding a worse basket of stocks if you take a profit on the good one and hold on to the stinker.

  15. Roy Says:

    Hello Larry/On
    NET was just able to raise 500 million from private sources – an incredible amount and thats why I thought about it
    Anyone have thoughts on BYND – the product, not the stock?Will it have a similar trajectory like chipotle?

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a short video that is only about 2 minutes long. It’s about a free PDF file of a discussion between two pit traders that were highly successful for over 30 years. It really helps you when making a trade and keeping a realistic mindset. And the PDF is free. I read it long ago and it really helped me when in a trade. No more day dreaming about profits based on ‘stories’ or needing to be right either. Most people really need to be right to satisfy their own ego and tend to hold onto a losing trade and rationalizing about unrealistic possibilities. These guys were pros and dealt with reality not wishful thinking.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAXf4vA76Qo

  17. Wayne Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Hey Ron,
    We have talked about the Phantom for years. I have a hard copy of the book somewhere and still refer to it whenever I have doubts about my strategy. An essential addition to any trader’s library. I loaned it to Dr Marty back in 2007. Visited him in Seattle on my way to a house sit in Monterey. He gave it back to me. It was filled with his notes and observations. HA!
    I think that the phantom made a brief appearance in the mid – 90’s on our comm trading site.
    Thanx for the reminder.

  18. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Re: #12
    Yep, I’m definitely a more on one side than the other, but not totally.

    Larry/ON,
    Re: #14
    There’s no doubt there if you’re invested for capital gains. I’m invested for pay increases, ie; dividend growth. This YTD my RRIF portfolio paper loss is about 13.5% but I’ve had 9 dividend increases and 0 decreases so far.

  19. Bernie Says:

    Larry/ON,

    Sorry I forgot to take into account my RRIF withdrawals. My paper loss is actually 12.35% YTD. My worst year was 2008. My RRSP paper loss then was ~27% excluding monthly additions, -24% including. Dividend growth was +2% which wasn’t bad considering I experienced 1 dividend suspension (ING) and a few freezes.

    I just wanted to say DGIs measure their “gains or losses” differently than capital gain or total return investors.

  20. Ron/BC Says:

    Wayne

    You’re fortune you got to visit him and talk. He was a very wise old guy. I recall him visiting the commodity site once I believe. Not much of a chatter though. Too bad there aren’t more around like him with that depth of knowledge. Would have been nice to work with him on his trades. Gotta wonder where all his notes etc ended up.

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