Pre-opening Comments for Thursday May 21st
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 13 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT Consensus for the May Philly Fed Index was a drop to – 40.0 versus -56.6 in April. Actual was a drop to -43.1. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 2.400 million versus a revised 2.687 million last week. Actual was 2.438 million
Facebook added $2.43 to $232.35 after Stifel Nicolaus raised its target price from $245 to $260.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/clip_image0011-13.png "clip_image001[1]")
Expedia gained $3.52 to $83.10 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter revenues. In addition, its target price was raised by Benchmark, Deutsche Bank and SunTrust.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/clip_image0021-13.png "clip_image002[1]")
Lowe’s gained $0.79 to $117.78 after Wedbush raised its target price from $105 to $130. Also, Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/clip_image0031-12.png "clip_image003[1]")
Aurora Cannabis advanced $3.85 to $16.60 after announcing the purchase of U.S. based Reliva.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/clip_image0041-9.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2020/05/20/stock-market-outlook-for-may-21-2020/
Note seasonality charts on the NASDAQ 100, Crude Oil Days of Supply and Canadian Consumer Price Index.
Technical Notes
Editor’s Note: More upside breakouts above 15 day trading ranges!
Materials SPDRs (XLB) moved above $53.74 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH) moved above $62.16 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Another Semiconductor ETF breakout! SMH moved above $139.36 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
S&P/TSX Energy iShares (XEG) moved above $5.25 Cdn. extending an intermediate uptrend.
BMO Global Metals ETF (ZMT) moved above $29.21 Cdn resuming an intermediate uptrend.
South Korea iShares (EWY) moved above $52.79 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Facebook (FB), one of the FAANG stocks moved above $224.20 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Railway stocks on both sides of the border (Canadian Pacific, CSX, Union Pacific) moved above three week trading ranges setting intermediate uptrends.
Intel (INTC), a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $61.78
ASML (ASML), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $317.57 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Synopsys (SNPS) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $166.87 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Analog Devices (ADI), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $114.06 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Kinder Morgan (KMI), an S&P 100 stock moved above $15.68 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Comcast (CMCSA), an S&P 100 stock moved above $39.12 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Canadian Forest Product stocks continue to move higher. Canfor (CFP) moved above $10.25 Cdn. extending an intermediate uptrend.
Constellation Software (CSU), a TSX 60 stock moved above $1,522.71 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 20th 2020
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 20th 2020
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 20th 2020
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Greg Schnell’s “Weekly Buzz”
Greg asks, “Can cyclicals cycle up”? Following is the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_kjxycCaP4&feature=youtu.be
S&P 500 Momentum Barometer
The Barometer added 6.01 to 82.15 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometer
The Barometer added another 2.23 to 77.68 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
|
|
May 21st, 2020 at 9:35 am
the AAII showed the public becoming a little more bullish last week but still well below the historic average…..bulls were up 5.7& to 29.7%….average is 38%….the bears dropped 5.6% to 45.0%….average is 30.5%…..
May 21st, 2020 at 5:02 pm
Approaching the upper limit for this leg of the market upward movement. After today’s numbers, feels like we are due for a draft down on the S&P 500 to sub 2800. Market is range bound at 2750-2975 until we get a catalyst of move beyond either limit. Potentially a great opportunity to momentum trade for the next couple months on this shoulder season (May-Sept tends to produce little in market gains) baring any game changers. The questions that keeps me up at night is what will be the catalyst, as usually it not what one was focuing on.
Are you seeing the same thing Ron/BC
May 21st, 2020 at 6:41 pm
Bman
Well all I see is most indicators are moving sideways. But on the bearish side the 50ema is still below the 200ema and that 3 fan trendline broke down as well. On the bullish side the RSI 21 is above the 50 line which is significant and the RSI 8 also above its 50 line and the MACD is still positive. And price is still holding above the October low which is right on the 50ema. We need something to trigger an avalanche or a buy signal.(There is always a “story” to be told for a trigger.) And I agree the seasonals are not that bullish going forward into fall. But there is always a rally to be had inbetween.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68417677866&a=738666579
May 21st, 2020 at 6:47 pm
Ron/BC
Whenever you have time, could you please give an analysis on Junior Gold Miners and Gold Stocks. Thank you.
May 21st, 2020 at 8:37 pm
Ron/BC
RE #4… should read gold stocks especially the junior miners.
May 21st, 2020 at 10:06 pm
Mary
You definitely have an eye for explosive chart patterns. Here is 2 year chart of JNUG on the NYSE which is a BULL X 2 chart. (very scary price action and not for the faint of heart.) You can see price has ranged in between $33 and $1049. Price collapsed on the March broad selloff. Other than that this 2 year chart doesn’t tell you much more.Price is very overbought presently but is pulling back towards the uptrendline. The 2nd chart is a 2 month JNUG from the March low and has been in a nice sensible uptrend since then. Price has pulled back and the next support is $88 which is the uptrendline plus price support from the breakout over $90. This would be a very gutsy trade by anyone at these prices. The reason the RSI 21 is still below the 50 line is due to the longer term chart that has price still bearish despite the uptrend from the March low. The MACD and Stochastics have topped out and rolled over as well suggesting more downside. Only thing that would make this chart somewhat bullish is testing that $88 level and even then wouldn’t be a guarantee of holding. But it does look tempting for sure…………..I’m sure there are more sensible less risky Small Cap Gold stock ETFs out there but I just can’t think of any right at the moment.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNUG&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38446328302&a=758448986
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNUG&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=5&id=p83896083016&a=758452214
May 21st, 2020 at 10:18 pm
Mary
I forgot a couple more. GDXJ is one of the most popular. And there is also SGDJ and SILJ AND ZJG.TO
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17431830367&listNum=1&a=673066248
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06856614496&a=758472805
May 21st, 2020 at 10:23 pm
Ron/BC,
Since Mary did not specify which junior gold stock ETF, here is GDXJ which at least is not leveraged. I would avoid the leveraged ones like the plague.
http://schrts.co/AzNatVvS
I have been waiting for a pullback in GDX. Seems to be breaking out over GLD but could have said that in 2016. Here is an old chart of yours:
http://schrts.co/hMUSePSz
May 21st, 2020 at 10:27 pm
Ron/BC
Thank you for this chart that you sent a few days ago:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42240451539&a=737929559
$VIX had a “go ahead to short” today, however $SPX was not there yet.
I went with my good friend, $VIX!
May 21st, 2020 at 11:18 pm
Ron/BC and Paula
Glad to hear JNUG is overbought because I bought JDST. Hoping the miners sell off after such a long run. Thanks again.
May 21st, 2020 at 11:19 pm
Paula
Speaking of the plague I am so fed up with all this paranoia about this virus plague. At least today I got to go inside and sit down with a coffee and muffin. I’m tired of spilling coffee all over myself and car. Reminds me of my teenage years at the drive in movie. And I see GDX is starting to outperform GLD. Gold usually doesn’t take off until at least June if I recall. A pullback on GDX to $30 would be nice. I’m wondering if something like GFI would do better. A pullback to about $7 would be nice to see.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GFI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56511717315&a=739401787
May 21st, 2020 at 11:31 pm
Mary
You do pick some wild and woolly markets. Here is JDST. The 2nd chart is a 60 minute one and you’d have to be a member of Stockcharts to see it but it does make more sense than this daily chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JDST&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60183709830&a=758504978
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JDST&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p04718109777&a=758506166
May 21st, 2020 at 11:42 pm
Ana, I am wondering how you use the VIX.I do watch it and am aware it is a mean reverting instrument.
Ron/BC, I hear you. I think being an island by definition equals physical distance which has been a great advantage. The whole
May 21st, 2020 at 11:47 pm
#13 continued…
Experience is very different depending on where you live, if you have to work, if you have enough money…
May 21st, 2020 at 11:53 pm
Ana
Do you use VXX or the $VIX futures market?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07729293385&a=758513686