Tech Talk for Thursday May 21st 2020

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday May 21st

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 13 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT Consensus for the May Philly Fed Index was a drop to – 40.0 versus -56.6 in April. Actual was a drop to -43.1. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 2.400 million versus a revised 2.687 million last week. Actual was 2.438 million

Facebook added $2.43 to $232.35 after Stifel Nicolaus raised its target price from $245 to $260.

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Expedia gained $3.52 to $83.10 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter revenues. In addition, its target price was raised by Benchmark, Deutsche Bank and SunTrust.

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Lowe’s gained $0.79 to $117.78 after Wedbush raised its target price from $105 to $130. Also, Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

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Aurora Cannabis advanced $3.85 to $16.60 after announcing the purchase of U.S. based Reliva.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/05/20/stock-market-outlook-for-may-21-2020/

Note seasonality charts on the NASDAQ 100, Crude Oil Days of Supply and Canadian Consumer Price Index.

 

Technical Notes

Editor’s Note: More upside breakouts above 15 day trading ranges!

Materials SPDRs (XLB) moved above $53.74 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH) moved above $62.16 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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Another Semiconductor ETF breakout! SMH moved above $139.36 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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S&P/TSX Energy iShares (XEG) moved above $5.25 Cdn. extending an intermediate uptrend.

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BMO Global Metals ETF (ZMT) moved above $29.21 Cdn resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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South Korea iShares (EWY) moved above $52.79 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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Facebook (FB), one of the FAANG stocks moved above $224.20 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Railway stocks on both sides of the border (Canadian Pacific, CSX, Union Pacific) moved above three week trading ranges setting intermediate uptrends.

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Intel (INTC), a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $61.78

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ASML (ASML), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $317.57 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Synopsys (SNPS) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $166.87 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Analog Devices (ADI), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $114.06 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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Kinder Morgan (KMI), an S&P 100 stock moved above $15.68 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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Comcast (CMCSA), an S&P 100 stock moved above $39.12 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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Canadian Forest Product stocks continue to move higher. Canfor (CFP) moved above $10.25 Cdn. extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Constellation Software (CSU), a TSX 60 stock moved above $1,522.71 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 20th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 20th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 20th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Greg Schnell’s “Weekly Buzz”

Greg asks, “Can cyclicals cycle up”? Following is the link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_kjxycCaP4&feature=youtu.be

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 6.01 to 82.15 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 2.23 to 77.68 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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15 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday May 21st 2020”

  1. bruce Says:

    the AAII showed the public becoming a little more bullish last week but still well below the historic average…..bulls were up 5.7& to 29.7%….average is 38%….the bears dropped 5.6% to 45.0%….average is 30.5%…..

  2. Bman/BC Says:

    Approaching the upper limit for this leg of the market upward movement. After today’s numbers, feels like we are due for a draft down on the S&P 500 to sub 2800. Market is range bound at 2750-2975 until we get a catalyst of move beyond either limit. Potentially a great opportunity to momentum trade for the next couple months on this shoulder season (May-Sept tends to produce little in market gains) baring any game changers. The questions that keeps me up at night is what will be the catalyst, as usually it not what one was focuing on.

    Are you seeing the same thing Ron/BC

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Bman

    Well all I see is most indicators are moving sideways. But on the bearish side the 50ema is still below the 200ema and that 3 fan trendline broke down as well. On the bullish side the RSI 21 is above the 50 line which is significant and the RSI 8 also above its 50 line and the MACD is still positive. And price is still holding above the October low which is right on the 50ema. We need something to trigger an avalanche or a buy signal.(There is always a “story” to be told for a trigger.) And I agree the seasonals are not that bullish going forward into fall. But there is always a rally to be had inbetween.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68417677866&a=738666579

  4. Mary Says:

    Ron/BC

    Whenever you have time, could you please give an analysis on Junior Gold Miners and Gold Stocks. Thank you.

  5. Mary Says:

    Ron/BC
    RE #4… should read gold stocks especially the junior miners.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Mary
    You definitely have an eye for explosive chart patterns. Here is 2 year chart of JNUG on the NYSE which is a BULL X 2 chart. (very scary price action and not for the faint of heart.) You can see price has ranged in between $33 and $1049. Price collapsed on the March broad selloff. Other than that this 2 year chart doesn’t tell you much more.Price is very overbought presently but is pulling back towards the uptrendline. The 2nd chart is a 2 month JNUG from the March low and has been in a nice sensible uptrend since then. Price has pulled back and the next support is $88 which is the uptrendline plus price support from the breakout over $90. This would be a very gutsy trade by anyone at these prices. The reason the RSI 21 is still below the 50 line is due to the longer term chart that has price still bearish despite the uptrend from the March low. The MACD and Stochastics have topped out and rolled over as well suggesting more downside. Only thing that would make this chart somewhat bullish is testing that $88 level and even then wouldn’t be a guarantee of holding. But it does look tempting for sure…………..I’m sure there are more sensible less risky Small Cap Gold stock ETFs out there but I just can’t think of any right at the moment.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNUG&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38446328302&a=758448986

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNUG&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=5&id=p83896083016&a=758452214

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Mary
    I forgot a couple more. GDXJ is one of the most popular. And there is also SGDJ and SILJ AND ZJG.TO

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17431830367&listNum=1&a=673066248

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06856614496&a=758472805

  8. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Since Mary did not specify which junior gold stock ETF, here is GDXJ which at least is not leveraged. I would avoid the leveraged ones like the plague.

    http://schrts.co/AzNatVvS

    I have been waiting for a pullback in GDX. Seems to be breaking out over GLD but could have said that in 2016. Here is an old chart of yours:

    http://schrts.co/hMUSePSz

  9. Ana Says:

    Ron/BC

    Thank you for this chart that you sent a few days ago:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42240451539&a=737929559

    $VIX had a “go ahead to short” today, however $SPX was not there yet.

    I went with my good friend, $VIX!

  10. Mary Says:

    Ron/BC and Paula

    Glad to hear JNUG is overbought because I bought JDST. Hoping the miners sell off after such a long run. Thanks again.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    Speaking of the plague I am so fed up with all this paranoia about this virus plague. At least today I got to go inside and sit down with a coffee and muffin. I’m tired of spilling coffee all over myself and car. Reminds me of my teenage years at the drive in movie. And I see GDX is starting to outperform GLD. Gold usually doesn’t take off until at least June if I recall. A pullback on GDX to $30 would be nice. I’m wondering if something like GFI would do better. A pullback to about $7 would be nice to see.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GFI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56511717315&a=739401787

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Mary

    You do pick some wild and woolly markets. Here is JDST. The 2nd chart is a 60 minute one and you’d have to be a member of Stockcharts to see it but it does make more sense than this daily chart.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JDST&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60183709830&a=758504978

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JDST&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p04718109777&a=758506166

  13. Paula Says:

    Ana, I am wondering how you use the VIX.I do watch it and am aware it is a mean reverting instrument.

    Ron/BC, I hear you. I think being an island by definition equals physical distance which has been a great advantage. The whole

  14. Paula Says:

    #13 continued…

    Experience is very different depending on where you live, if you have to work, if you have enough money…

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana

    Do you use VXX or the $VIX futures market?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07729293385&a=758513686

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