Tech Talk for Thursday June 18th 2020

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday June 18th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 18 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus the June Philly Fed Index was -23.0 versus -43.1 in May. Actual was +27.5.

Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 1.3 million versus 1,566 last week. Actual was 1.508 million.

The Bank of England extended its Quantitative Easing Program by 100 million pounds.

Kroger added $0.43 to $33.24 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter sales and earnings.

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Carnival Cruise dropped $1.32 to $17.77 after reporting a larger than consensus fiscal second quarter loss.

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Lennar (LEN $63.00) is expected to open higher after Raymond James raised its target price from $41 to $75.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/06/17/stock-market-outlook-for-june-18-2020/

Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil Days of Supply, U.S. Housing Starts and Canadian Consumer Price Index.

 

Technical Notes

Nil

 

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 17th 2020

spx june 18

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 17th 2020

crb june 18

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 17th 2020

xlk june 18

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Greg Schnell’s “Market Buzz”

Greg checks out “Midcap high flyers”. Following is a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKIJicjQaHo&feature=youtu.be

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 2.61 to 87.58 yesterday. It remains extremely intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 7.24 to 76.02 yesterday. It remains extremely intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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10 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday June 18th 2020”

  1. bruce Says:

    Whoops….the AAII survey for the week ending june 17th shows the bulls down 9.9% to 24.4% and the bears up 9.7 to 47.8%….hmmmm…….

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    CNN market sentiment indicator is at 51 neutral
    Digital Economy – If any investor does not grasp what is going on with the digital economy right now they will be lost in this market

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    SHOP – RBC raised price target to $1000 USD calling the company underappreciated. MACD crossover today and took out the $844 intra-day high this morning.

  4. tony Says:

    Larry,

    Shopify,

    I was looking at its daily chart and since it took off on april 14th its been a nice steady climber.

    the hourly chart since june 15th at the open (the point were macd turned positive) its been a sure winner with a 12% return

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    Hi Tony – If you split your money between MSFT and SHOP 50/50 and kept rebalancing as SHOP outperforms you would have a very good system. I already had SHOP but I went in big on the morning they announced their deal with WMT. They are expanding big time. I’m getting lonely posting my ideas on this website. We need more people blogging.
    MSFT – next earnings in one month. They are going to outperform again. They have so much cloud business they couldn’t keep up with the demand.

  6. Bman/Vancouver Says:

    Hi Larry. It has been a relative couple quiet days on the market with nice weather so maybe people are taking advantage and getting out. My impression is we are consolidating after the last big monthly move, but getting ready for another curl higher if the economic numbers continue to improve. Baron’s had a good article on the cyclicals as they could outperform 2 to 1 going forward given the rich valuations in tech.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/cyclical-stocks-poised-to-rally-says-barry-bannister-of-stifel-51571077832

  7. Bman/Vancouver Says:

    For clarity the performance of 2 to 1 is my estimate of how much outperformance we could see.

  8. Mary Says:

    Caution: Be nimble, trade small and know what you are trading and how much you can afford to lose….

    20yr loses 700k on Robinhood options, takes life.

  9. dave/ab Says:

    Mary

    Very sad situation. I’m surprised they didn’t have any rules or account balance prior to accesses that much on margin.

    Here is the story if anyone is interested

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/06/17/20-year-old-robinhood-customer-commits-suicide-after-seeing-a-730000-negative-balance/?fbclid=IwAR19o_V3UYUxvH6ofJbgqKQrK7zGs1LeQXMIqUeU7y0c7NmoDAIi1CHtVas#54ddcf585928

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Mary/Dave/AB

    The only market I ever really got trashed in was Options. With most markets one has time to exit as prices zig zag down and often come back especially the brand named markets. But Options just turn to junk overnight and having a time factor with them guarantees a 100% loss in a very short time frame. No time to exit. They are a great learning tool for those that think they can just sit on a market and ignore a major selloff without exiting in a timely manner. I learned not to be complacent with all markets after trading options. One does learn to park their pride and deal with reality when dealing with them.

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