Tech Talk for Friday August 14th 2020

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Morning Technical Notes for August 14th

Applied Materials (AMAT), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $66.95 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Target price was raised by Mizuho and Stifel Nicolaus this morning.

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 14th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved slightly higher following release of July Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for July Retail Sales was an increase of 1.9% versus a gain of 7.5% in June. Actual was.an increase of 1.2%. Excluding auto sales, consensus was an increase of 1.3% versus a gain of 7.3% in June. Actual was an increase of 1.9%.

Cineplex (CGX Cdn$8.19 ) is expected to open lower after reporting a higher than consensus quarter loss.

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CF Industries added $0.33 to $35.29 after JP Morgan raised its target price from $35 to $45.

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NVIDIA advanced $3.66 to $461.38 after Wedbush raised it target price from $420 to $500.

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Applied Materials added $2.36 to $67.43 after Stifel Nicolaus and Mizuho raised their target price on the stock.

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/08/13/stock-market-outlook-for-august-14-2020/

Note seasonality chart on the VIX Index

Technical Notes for August 13th

Cisco (CSCO), a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $43.30 completing a double top pattern. The company lowered fiscal first quarter guidance.

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Micron (MU), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $47.10 setting an intermediate downtrend.

The stock was downgraded by Deutsche Bank from Buy to Hold. Target price was reduced from $48 to $40.

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KLA Tencor (KLAC), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $209.30 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Nikkei Average moved above 23,185.85 to 23,249.61 yesterday extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 13th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 13th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 13th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 3.01 to 79.16 yesterday. It changed from extremely intermediate overbought to intermediate overbought on a drop below 80.00.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.69 to 78.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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8 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday August 14th 2020”

  1. sp Says:

    Natural gas is high and moving up, is this season for gas to play?

    thanks

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    SP

    Only thing I could find is this Equity Clock chart and data of Natural Gas prices. It shows a rising trend mid Feb to mid June. And again end of August to mid October.

    http://www.equityclock.com/charts/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart/

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    SP

    Here is the Nat Gas Fund UNG chart.The last couple of weeks have been very positive with the price trending back up and the 20ema above the 50ema for the first time since Nov. The MACD has been positive since late June as well. Not out of the woods entirely yet I suppose but it does look like a change is occurring and the seasonals kick in positively soon as well. I thought I’d post a Histogram chart as it is much easier to see the price chart.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55692852123&a=799306855

  4. Mary Says:

    Ron/BC
    Could you please give your perspective on the CDN$. Do you think it has much more upside. The US$ has been trending down to the point of no return. Heard one analyst said going to 88.
    Appreciate!

  5. Paul Says:

    Ron/BC, 3 more gassy equities in Canada seem to be TOU, BIR & PEY. Do any of these charts look good to you now ? Disclosure I recently bought PEY. Thank you, Paul

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Mary
    The CDW cleared 75 which was major price resistance looking at the chart. That was a big deal so as long as price holds above 75 it’s in good shape technically. The 2nd chart is a seasonality chart and the month of August tends to be a poor month. But September is the 2nd strongest month of the year historically. The 50ema recently crossed back above the 200ema which is bullish and the RSI 21 has been above the 50 line since mid May. Not much wrong with the price chart that I can see. The U.S.$ is the wild card as usual though but as long as price can hold above 75 it’s ok.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50485327517&a=673066213

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24CDW

    The U.S.$ has pulled back to its 9 year uptrendline. I posted this chart awhile back showing this. Worst case scenario would be to break that uptrendline and pull back to price support at 88. That is where the analyst you mentioned would have got that number from. Looking at the RSI 8 that is very oversold I wouldn’t bet on that uptrendline breaking myself but it’s not the end of the world if it does from this point. Meanwhile the CD$ is in good shape above 75.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=1980-07-28&id=p77616301227&a=673066394

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24USD

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Paul
    TOU.to is the strongest stock technically and sees its 50ema crossing above its 200ema and price clearing $15 resistance. Price is now testing the next resistance at $17 and is very overbought. A pullback to $15 would be more likely than clearing $17 but anything can happen if that market gets hot. And that Nat Gas market does look good for a rebound.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34138051667&a=800438737

    BIR.to is just in a sidways range between 1.15 and 1.60 and as before just keeps running up to its falling 200EMA. Price need to clear that 1.60 range and clear the 200ema to suggest a change in the price trend. It is also very overbought as well.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIR.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08285238588&a=800439381

    PEY.to is also very overbought and still running up to its falling 200ema. It does have a rising tremd from March but needs to clear $3 to suggest a change in trend back to up.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PEY.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12874599187&a=800442568

  8. Mary Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks for the update. I was thinking of converting some US$ back into CDN$ but will wait and see what happens.
    Happy golfing.

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