Tech Talk for Thursday November 5th 2020

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Morning Technical Notes for Thursday November 5th

NASDAQ 100 and S&P 100 Breakouts This Morning

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ETF Breakouts This Morning

Materials SPDRs moved above $66.97 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Semiconductor ETFs SMH and SOXX broke to all-time highs

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Hong Kong iShares moved above $22.96 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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South Africa iShares moved above $40.56 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday November 5th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 61 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the Weekly Jobless Claims report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was 732,000 versus 751,000 last week Actual was 751,000.

Qualcomm advanced $16.83 to $145.80 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter revenues and earnings.

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Expedia gained $4.31 to $102.81 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues and earnings.

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General Motors gained $2.01 to $37.13 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues and earnings.

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Canadian Tire (CTC.A Cdn$ 147.73 ) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues and earnings. The company also raised its dividend.

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/11/04/stock-market-outlook-for-november-5-2020/

Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil Days of Supply and U.S. Vehicle Sales

S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking above intermediate resistance yesterday

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ETFs breaking above intermediate resistance yesterday

Healthcare SPDRs (XLV) moved above $109.53 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend .

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Emerging Markets iShares moved above $46.34 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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South Korea iShares moved above $68.49 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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China Large Cap iShares moved above $45.93 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Ditto for the Morgan Stanley A shares (holding a portfolio of China A shares)!

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Ditto for Taiwan iShares!

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Ditto for Vietnam ETF!

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 4th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 4th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 4th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Market Buzz

Greg Schnell offers “Post elections ideas”. His focus is on a favourable outlook for base metal stocks. Following is a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ezUWqOqhP0&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=StockCharts

P.S. Increased demand for base metals is expected to come primarily from growth by Far East markets. Possible launch of an expanded infrastructure program in the U.S. promised by both Biden and Trump also is a plus.

Seasonal influences for base metal prices and base metal equity sector on a real and relative basis turn positive in mid/November/early December.

 

Copper Futures (HG) Seasonal Chart

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FUTURE_HG1 Relative to the S&P 500
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Copper inventories on the LME are low: They recently recovered slightly from a 5 year low setting the stage for higher prices during their next period of seasonal strength

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.40 to 58.52 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 0.47 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




4 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday November 5th 2020”

  1. bruce Says:

    the AAII this week has the bulls at 38.0% up 2.7 and the bears 31.5% down 3.8…this is the highest level of optimism since March……….

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    CNN Market Sentiment Indicator is at 38 Fear.
    As far as the election is concerned it doesn’t look like the Dems can take the Senate and the market likes an opposition of power between the exec and legislative branches. All the talk about a contested election being bad for markets is out the window. It reminds me about how Trump was supposed to be bad for the market in 2016 and the opposite happened after overnight election jitters. The electoral system will survive anything Trump wants to throw at it.

  3. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Here is an old GDX chart of yours. GDX has not tested its previous all time high, let alone exceeded it. Unlike GOLD/GLD. Maybe it is starting to make a move to test the 52 level.
    Can you say it has successfully tested the FIB 50% level marked on your chart?

    http://schrts.co/jyuVkmaU

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    GDX has been trending positively for some time now with higher highs and higher lows. It is odd that the stocks are not outperforming the GLD though as it tends to see the precious metal stocks outperform the metal much of the time. The GDX:GLD ratio chart above is still in its sideways channel,so no breakout there yet. GDX cleared #31 resistance and then $37 resistance and recently successfully tested the $37 breakout point and has been trending strongly up since the March low. That support needs to hold on the short term but the chart overall is very bullish including the seasonality chart of GDX and GLD. The seasonality chart for GDX sees December and January as the two strongest months of the year as well at 100 and 80 and for GLD much the same at 100 and 75. I don’t know if that answers your question or not but those are my thoughts on the precious metals.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04396299282&a=781537994

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=GDX

    The U.S.$ also plays an important part in precious metal prices.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56320981478&a=673066134

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