Tech Talk for Friday November 6th 2020

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Morning Technical Notes for Friday November 6th

The Nikkei Average advanced 219.35 to 24,325.23 to a 24 month high.

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Globex Copper Miners (COPX) moved above $22.90 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Lundin Mining (LUN.TO), a base metals producer moved above $8.55 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Upcoming Event

Today (November 6th) Jon Vialoux will present at the Money Show’s Virtual Expo on the topic of “Using Seasonality to Invest During a Pandemic.”  Registration is free via the following link.  See you at 2pm ET!

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday November 6th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 14 points in pre-opening trade.

Equity index futures rallied slightly following release of the U.S. October Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for October Non-farm Payrolls was a decrease to 600,000 from 661,000 in September. Actual was 638,000. Consensus for the October Unemployment Rate was a slip to 7.7% from 7.9% in September. Actual was a drop to 6.9%. Consensus for October Average Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in September. Actual was an increase of 0.1%.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at U.S.76.62 cents following release of Canada’s October Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an increase of 75,000 versus a gain of 378,000 in September. Actual was a gain of 83,600. Consensus for the October Unemployment Rate was a slip to 8.8% from 9.0% in September. Actual was a slip to 8.9%.

Electronic Arts dropped $9.33 to $119.00 after reporting lower than consensus quarterly results.

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Square added $11.77 to $187.00 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter results.

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T Mobile gained $10.23 to $127.49 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results.

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Cannabis stocks and their related ETFs continue to strengthen after more U.S. states approved legalization.

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2020/11/05/stock-market-outlook-for-november-6-2020/

Note seasonality charts on Initial Jobless Claims and Non-farm Payrolls.

 

Responses to the Federal Reserve’s comments and actions

News from the FOMC meeting was that the Federal Reserve will maintain its easy money policy during the Pandemic. Responses by markets after the 2:00 PM release mainly were muted.

U.S. equity indices were virtually unchanged

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Long term U.S. Treasury Bond prices were virtually unchanged

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The U. S. Dollar and its related ETN was virtually unchanged

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Gold and silver prices rose slightly with silver prices notably stronger.

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Precious metals equities on both sides of the border moved slightly higher.

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Technical Notes for Thursday November 5th

NASDAQ 100 and S&P 100 Breakouts Yesterday

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Selected ETF Breakouts Yesterday

Materials SPDRs moved above $66.97 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Semiconductor ETFs SMH and SOXX broke to all-time highs

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Hong Kong iShares moved above $22.96 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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South Africa iShares moved above $40.56 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF moved above 114.68 extending an intermediate uptrend. Units are testing their all-time high at $116.81

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EAFE iShares (EFA) moved above $66.11 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Agricultural ETF (MOO) moved above $70.36 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Russell 2000 iShares moved above $164.24 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Australia iShares moved above $21.16 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical Notes on Canadian Equities

Metro (MRU), a TSX 60 stock moved above $64.38 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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SunLife Financial (SLF), a TSX 60 stock moved above $57.30 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Base Metals equities and ETFs are moving higher. HudBay Minerals moved to a 22 month high.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 5th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 5th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 5th 2020

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 9.22 to 67.74 yesterday. It changed from intermediate neutral to intermediate overbought on a move above 60.00.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer advanced another 16.11 to 63.03 yesterday. It changed from intermediate neutral to intermediate overbought on a move above 60.00.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




4 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday November 6th 2020”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a Daily chart of the XGD.to. Price is bumping up against the downtrendline from early August. Technicals are bullish but price does have to clear that downtrendline and especially clear $23.25 “and hold above”. The XGD.to:GLD ratio chart below has not been strong and needs to show some strength to be convincing. The MACDs are again bullish. The December & January Seasonal trends are historically the most bullish times of the year. As always draw your own conclusions.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61523299038&a=673066137

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=XGD.TO

  2. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    I’m glad you still check into this site and saw my question. Thanks very much for your response and updated GDX chart yesterday. Yes you answered my question whether there was a successful test of the $37 level, which you had marked as a FIB 50%.
    The seasonality chart you show is from stockcharts, which is from over the last 5 years, whereas Don’s chart shows over the last 20 years, I believe, but I think but the stockcharts time frame can be changed.

    I seem to recall Don saying that the strongest seasonality for gold is August into September. Regardless, the seasonality is the least important variable for me.
    I agree about the USD and believe it is more important than seasonality.

    Here is your daily GDX chart with a couple of additions. I agree with you that GDX:GLD ratio has still not broken out from the down trend/channel since August (I put in a pink descending trend line) but this could be forming a bull flag and if there is a break out, there would be a lot of room for it to run up, possibly like what it did from March to late July, as shown by your ascending green trend line. I also added an opaque rectangle on the GDX chart itself indicating an area where I see a lot of resistance.

    http://schrts.co/fUagJDjd

    I see you posted the XGD.TO chart and comments today. I used to follow this one but decided to drop it just stick with GDX. They are very similar and I don’t want to track more than one gold stock etf. It would be good for those who want to use their Canadian dollars.

    There is probably an easier way to find these but Don’s gold futures and NYSE gold bugs index seasonality charts from July are about half way down on this page:

    http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2020/07/20/tech-talk-for-monday-july-20th-2020/

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    Here is a chart of GDX and the 2nd ratio chart shows GDX:XGD.to. It has been in a downtrend since late 2012. Lots of ways to look at that ratio so draw your own conclusions. And December/January have always been strong months for $GOLD
    regardless of how many years used to compare. Doesn’t mean it will be straight up from here but odds favour a bullish couple of months ahead.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87361791652&a=781537994

  4. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks for the chart and your feedback. Always appreciated.

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