Morning Technical Notes for Tuesday January 5th
NetEase (NTES), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $98.18 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
![clip_image001[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0015-1.png "clip_image001[5]")
Rogers Communications (RCI), a TSX 60 stock moved above US $47.77 extending an intermediate uptrend.
![clip_image002[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0025.png "clip_image002[5]")
Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 5th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 8 points in pre-opening trade. Investors are bracing for results from the two Georgia Senate run-off elections today.
Disney slipped $1.28 to $176.40 despite a target increase by Truist Securities to $195.
Coca Cola (KO $52.76) is expected to open higher after Guggenheim upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
Micron (MU $74.05) is expected to open higher after Citigroup upgraded the stock from Sell to Buy.
Lululemon (LULU 356.40) is expected to open higher after Deutsche Bank chose the stock as an Analyst Buy.
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2021/01/04/stock-market-outlook-for-january-5-2020/
Note seasonality chart on U.S. Construction Spending.
Weakness in U.S. equity prices yesterday
Weakness can be attributed partially to traders who delayed profit taking until start of 2021. Also, poll results over the weekend for the Georgia Senate run-off elections today moved more in favour of wins by the two Democrat candidates. At least one major U.S. broker predicted a 5%-10% downdraft in U.S. equities if Democrats win both seats. Following is a link to the latest poll results:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/
Technical Notes for Monday January 4th
Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $183.81 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) moved above $383.27 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Semiconductor ETF (SMH) moved above $221.79 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Blackrock (BLK), an S&P 100 stock moved above $721.82 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Silver equity ETF moved above $47.67 resuming an intermediate uptrend. Responding to higher silver prices!
Hecla Mining (HL) led the Silver equity sector higher by moving above $6.78 to a four year high.
Kinross Gold (KGC), a TSX 60 stock moved above US $7.84 and Cdn $10.03 completing a double bottom pattern. Responding to higher gold prices!
Barrick Gold (ABX), a TSX 60 stock moved above $31.27 completing aa double bottom pattern.
Texas Instruments (TXN), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $167.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
FedEx (FDX), an S&P 100 stock moved below $255.78 completing a double top pattern.
Dollar Tree (DLTR), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $106.03 completing a double top pattern.
Paychex (PAYX), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $89.44 completing a double top pattern.
Colgate Palmolive (CL), an S&P 100 stock moved below $83.97 completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 4th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 4th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 4th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Please note that seasonality ratings on several equity indices and several U.S. sectors are scheduled to change on January 7th. Most of the changes are downgrades from Positive to Neutral.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometer
The Barometer dropped 12.42 to 74.15 yesterday. It changed from extremely intermediate overbought to overbought on a move below 80.00 and established a short term downtrend.
TSX Momentum Barometer
The Barometer added 2.84 to 73.46 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 5th, 2021 at 10:23 am
MU – Citi upgrade from sell to buy. Someone was asleep at the switch in the Citi research department.
January 5th, 2021 at 11:27 am
Ron/BC
Do you remember POP (Phantom of the Pits?)
I saw a message from him in November. Forgot to mention him to you when I called.
I think that I told you that I went long beans in Nov.
Here is his post.
Wishing you the best in the upcoming holiday season.
Very interesting times in Futures. Especially when the value of currencies points to expensive times for the value of money upcoming. (meaning that money just isn’t a good investment as other investments are more appropriate with potential above the oncoming inflation.)
What do you do when on your way to Grandma’s and half way there you realize you left the coffee pot on and it was almost empty when you left? Coffee pots have been known to set fires. Do you lean on your insurance and take your chance of odds?
Well same in trading. What do you do at this interesting point in Soybeans. What are the odds you can be fooled into the wrong direction or miss entirely the trade? What are your odds? Well The big money is usually made on the surprise side. Human nature as we age is to oppose change.
Sometimes the strategy is to lose the least amount of funds on a trade then to make your fortune. I remember buying soybeans in the pits when the Hunts were forced to sell their beyond limits in soybeans. It was a rumor that turned into a bath before confirmed. The point being that trader’s belief can move faster than confirmation of a rumor. It was one of those trades that we hit the bid all the way down. A good position turned bad turned into a small fortune. I’m sure you see the point. I still watch the commodity posts and always look for opportunity.
It’s time to realize all the books sooner or later can be wrong. It’s time to know not to double down in blackjack on eleven when all the aces are still in the decks. Elven seldom wins.
The point being that there are times that your least amount of loss if your wrong is a good strategy when you see the upcoming fortune showing.
Your research is good, your observation of both sides of the market are excellent. I’d be pretty surprised if many catch the windfall of our upcoming dollar devaluation unless you have the most money. it’s never one on one and exact timing is your impossible assignment.
Watch for the exit signs when you’re positioned heavily. Manage your money or you have an unexpected surprise. Volume and liquidity have become different friends
POP …I’lll be checking back and wish you the best trades and smallest losses – you know “The best losers are the long term winners.
Best!
January 5th, 2021 at 12:38 pm
MCHI – Should close at a new all-time high. Thanks to Techtalk for providing the seasonality chart for the Shanghai composite.
EEM also making new highs which actually has had better relative performance than MCHI the past two months
January 5th, 2021 at 1:36 pm
Wayne Smith
And yes “POP” is one of the wisest.
Thanks for the comments. And I agree, “The best losers are long term winners.” Takes a long time to appreciate that fact. Much like boxing. It’s not the jabs that will take you out but the big uppercut you aren’t ready for. Life’s a beach……………..All the best in 2021 and beyond.
January 5th, 2021 at 2:21 pm
still_learning and dave/ab
Thanks for your posts and links yesterday! Good luck in 2021!
January 5th, 2021 at 3:23 pm
Paula, re#5:
‘Mr. Earing’ can spin a good yarn on gold?
Taking a bit of a hit today with XGD.to, mostly all because of drop in ABX.to …grrrr.
January 5th, 2021 at 3:47 pm
still learning,
It can’t go up everyday. Consolidation after a big move is good – builds energy for the next leg.
January 5th, 2021 at 3:47 pm
BREAKING Trump Latest – Pulling out all the stops in a last ditch attempt at victory Donald Trump is changing his name to Joe Biden.