Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 8th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 14 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the December Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for December Non-farm Payrolls was s gain of 71,000 from an upwardly revised gain of 336,000 in November. Actual was a drop of 140,000. Consensus for the December Unemployment Rate was an increase to 6.8% from 6.7% in November. Actual was unchanged at 6.7%. Consensus for December Average Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.8%..
The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at US 78.73 cents following release of Canada’s December Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for December Employment was a drop of 27,500 versus a gain of 62,100 in November. Actual was a drop of 62,100. Consensus for the December Unemployment Rate was an increase to 8.6% from 8.5% in November. Actual was an increase to 8.6%.
Domtar added $1.24 to US $35.81 after announcing the sale of its personal care business to American Industrial Partners for US $920 million.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0011.png "clip_image001[1]")
Chevron (CVX $90.22) is expected to open higher after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0021-2.png "clip_image002[1]")
Microsoft (MSFT $) is expected to open higher after Oppenheimer chose the stock as a “Top Pick for 2021”
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0031-1.png "clip_image003[1]")
Facebook (FB $) is expected to open higher after Mizuho chose the stock as a “Top Pick for 2021”
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0041-1.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Lead comment says,” Mission accomplished! Our target for the S&P 500 Index of 3800 that we have been proposing for months has been achieved”.
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2021/01/07/stock-market-outlook-for-january-8-2021/
Note seasonality chart on Non-farm Payrolls.
Technical Notes for Thursday January 7th
TSX Composite Index moved above 17,970.51 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Long term Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) moved below $152.00 completing a double top pattern.
Base Metals ETN (DBB) moved above $17.95 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Energy SPDRs (XLE) moved above $41.52 extending an intermediate uptrend.
U.S. Telecom iShares (IYZ) moved above $31.05 to a four year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Wells Fargo, an S&P 100 stock moved above $33.60 extending an intermediate uptrend.
MMM (MMM), a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $169.18 completing a double top pattern.
American Express (AXP), a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $124.88 extending an intermediate uptrend. Note late weakness on negative news
Walgreens Boots (WBA), a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $44.34 extending an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Microchip Technology (MCHP), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $145.34 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
CSX (CSX), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $93.44 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Dollar Tree (DLTR), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $114.32 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Bank of Montreal (BMO), a TSX 60 stock moved above $98.62 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Fortis (FTS), a TSX 60 stock moved below $51.10 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Restaurant Brands International (QSR), a TSX 60 stock moved above $79.33 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 7th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 7th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 7th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
S&P 500 Momentum Barometer
![clip_image001[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0015-4.png "clip_image001[5]")
The Barometer added 1.00 to 83.37 yesterday. It remains extremely intermediate overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometer
![clip_image002[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0025-2.png "clip_image002[5]")
The Barometer slipped 1.80 to 76.19 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 8th, 2021 at 9:27 am
Happy New Year. We packed up an flew to our house in South Florida December 2. Enjoying warm ocean air and being outside. Everything is open although we prudently avoid crowds. People are civil, stay away from one another and wear masks. We’ve been here 30 years and never seen such divisiveness in politics: there are yahoos in pick up truck waving giant Trump Flags from inland come to ocean area (we are hour north of Miami ) Our neighbour Troy down the way had a fundraiser for the orange maniac and had to sell his house because he was getting death threats from public. Just about time for all politicians of all stripes to figure out that they’re the problem and get out of our way. Looks like a number of companies who funded these clowns have cut them off: bye bye Lyin’ Ted & AOC.
Liquidity boom in markets continue and I’m not buying much. Biden will certainly raise taxes to 28% again and wall street models will have to adjust to that reality: government wants their money back to blow on other initiatives. I figure we’ll get a nice correction this quarter to load up on some longer term mid caps which valuations have blown out a little. Any small EPS miss will tigger individual names to get smoked and I shall be waiting. Plus I am certain the private equity gang will be snatching strong cash flow companies. Stanley B&D , Ball Corp and Zimmer are on my trading watch list.
I hope everyone is happy and healthy and we can all get back to normal come the summer
January 8th, 2021 at 12:50 pm
I recall a lot of first 1/4s that saw a major selloff over the past decades. I don’t think this one will be any different. Businesses & the public are not simply going to walk away with just a few bruises with the effects of this virus out there.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31305053570&a=682178007
January 8th, 2021 at 1:35 pm
re:#2, Ron
You do realize you are starting to sound like the BNN permabear, David Rosenberg? The thing is I agree with you, which makes me a permacub? …smile
regards, Bernie/Lethbridge
January 8th, 2021 at 2:18 pm
Still_Learning
Well I’ve known a lot of people over the years that naively “trusted” the markets to do the right thing and got their heads handed to them. They didn’t deserve that, so I do like to point out negatives in the market for those that like to at least consider other possibilities than just “we’re going to the moon” theories that are feel good comments so often heard and read. Everyone loves those warm and fuzzy comments. And I guess I’m totally pissed off at wearing a xxxxxxx mask everywhere and am a little edgy lately. I guess you could say, “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.”,lol…….
January 8th, 2021 at 2:45 pm
Now that everyone “just knows” the U.S.$ is toast, perhaps it’s time for a reversal back up again.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63902815980&a=792462312
January 8th, 2021 at 3:18 pm
Ron/BC
NTR
Ron,
Mike has finally closed down his TFC Commodities forum.
The discussions were drifting way outside the acceptable boundaries and got quite virulent over the past few months concerning the politics in the USSR.
I joined back in 1990 – I don’t know how long you were on before me.
I was surprised that it lasted this long.
Mike was a good guy. Always on topic. I met POP on the forum.
January 8th, 2021 at 3:33 pm
Wayne Smith
Sorry to hear as that was a good site. Being U.S. based and some of the radicals that posted there I guess it would have gotten heated. A lot of red necks posted there. I always felt like a left winger posting there,lol. I can’t recall when I started posting there with charts etc. I know some of those grain farmers didn’t care for my charts as all they cared about was whether it was going to rain or not. I stopped posting there as I got pissed off with a couple of them. And I agree Mike had a lot of tolerance putting up with a lot of b.s. I wonder if he’ll start another site……
January 8th, 2021 at 7:00 pm
I must be the happy bull opposite of RON/BC. I’ve had my head handed to me a couple of times but it kept growing back. I’m bullish for 2021 because there is so much money that has been printed and the bond market is tanking. Where is this money going? There is going to be a lot of spending when we come out of lockdown and business will be booming. It’s a bubble that will inflate for quite some time. Short-term correction coming. Yes but when.
January 8th, 2021 at 8:53 pm
#8
The most important fact I learned over the last few decades was to never be a major bull or a major bear on any market. A traders/investors biggest enemy is their emotions. Just being rational and cautious will keep your money safe. F.O.M.O and over exuberance is a recipe for financial disaster.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:12 pm
Ron/BC
Hey ron, could you please show a chart of GSM and tell me what you think. Is it a good buy for a short term right now?
Thank you.
January 9th, 2021 at 1:08 am
Dave
Here is a 2 year and 12 chart of GSM. The 2yr chart cleared 1.15 and then cleared 1.50 and then ran up past 2.00. If price can clear that 2.20 area and hold it could run up to 3.00 and beyond quickly. Right now price is consolidating between 1.50 and 2.20 and the rising 20ema is above the rising 50ema which is above the rising 200ema. Always a good sign.
The 12 year chart shows where it’s been long term. Support is at 1.45 with resistance at 3.00. Clearing 3.00 the next resistance would be 4.50 and then 6.50. The chart has a lot of potential. Note the very high “relative” volume on this recent rally. “Something” is cooking here. Looks like a chart with potential. That’s what I see technically fwiw.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GSM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82798360819&a=869581675
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GSM&p=D&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60976862313&a=869581466
January 9th, 2021 at 2:45 am
Ron/BC
Thanks ron. That is great information. Your knowledge of charting is much appreciated thank you.
January 9th, 2021 at 10:04 am
Semis Have Pricing Power:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/semiconductor-shortage-causes-ford-and-nissan-to-cut-vehicle-production.html
January 9th, 2021 at 12:11 pm
Dave
Just keep in mind that support levels in anything need to hold on tests of support otherwise the next support level below is usually tested. But overall GSM has a nice bottoming pattern with a huge flag more recently and on high volume.
January 9th, 2021 at 3:47 pm
I highly recommend Ciovacco’s weekly video. Very good long term perspective.
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/cracks-in-2021-stock-charts
January 9th, 2021 at 5:46 pm
Ron/BC
Ron thanks again.
So it needs to clear 2.20 level and than the 3$ level than the 4.50 level and than the 6$ level as I understand it, right?
January 9th, 2021 at 7:29 pm
Dave
Yes that’s correct. I also watch those emas position like it is now and a positive MACD. With patterns like this the moves can be very quick,both ways. And placing a stop loss will often get stopped out quickly. No easy answers for volatile patterns especially those that “appear” to be bottoming patterns. Just watch for breakdowns in each support that is cleared. You don’t want it all to slip through your fingers either.
January 10th, 2021 at 1:09 am
Dave
Here is the seasonal trend of GSM. December and January are historically a coin flip but February is a strong month. March is a major bust. This seasonal trend reflects the stock’s price trend in each month all things considered. No guarantee but gives you the odds. Anything can happen to a stock or sector but so far this stock that was trashed over the last few years does seem to have bottomed and is trying to make a comeback. I don’t track fundamentals much but this is what the charts are suggesting.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=GSM
January 10th, 2021 at 1:15 am
Dave
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=GSM
January 10th, 2021 at 12:10 pm
the AAII survey for the week ending jan.6 shows the bulls now at 54% up from 46.1 and the bears 19.4% down from 26.8………looks like the pot may be heating up……