Morning Technical Notes for Friday January 22nd
Honeywell (HON), a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $204.85 completing a double top pattern.
![clip_image001[9]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0019-1.png "clip_image001[9]")
IBM ((IBM) moved below support at $121.72 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues.
![clip_image002[9]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0029-1.png "clip_image002[9]")
Raytheon Technologies (RTX), an S&P 100 stock moved below $67.78 completing a double top pattern.
![clip_image003[9]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0039.png "clip_image003[9]")
Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 22nd
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 27 points in pre-opening trade.
The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at US78.67 following release of Canada’s November Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in October. Actual was an increase of 1.3%
IBM dropped $8.41 to $123.21 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues.
![clip_image001[7]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0017-3.png "clip_image001[7]")
Walt Disney gained $1.47 to $172.75 after UBS raised its target price from $155 to $200.
![clip_image002[7]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0027-4.png "clip_image002[7]")
CSX dropped $1.92 to $89.69 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter earnings. Stifel Nicolaus lowered its rating from Buy to Hold.
![clip_image003[7]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0037-1.png "clip_image003[7]")
Intel fell $2.91 to $59.55 despite reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings and despite target price increases by five major Wall Street investment dealers. The company offered cautious guidance.
![clip_image004[7]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0047.png "clip_image004[7]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2021/01/21/stock-market-outlook-for-january-22-2021/
Note seasonality chart on U.S. Housing Starts.
Technical Notes for Thursday January 21st
Pfizer (PFE), a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $36.27 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Gildan Activewear (GIL), a TSX 60 stock moved below $34.13 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Brazil iShares (EWZ) moved below $35.77 completing a double top pattern.
Paccar (PCAR), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $95.05 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
TIPs moved above $127.92 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Investors are starting to anticipate acceleration in U.S. inflation rates.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 21st 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 21st 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 21st 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
![clip_image001[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0015-11.png "clip_image001[5]")
The intermediate Barometer slipped 2.20 to 75.95 yesterday. It remains overbought.
![clip_image002[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0025-8.png "clip_image002[5]")
The long term Barometer eased 0.40 to 91.18 yesterday. It remains extremely overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
![clip_image003[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0035-3.png "clip_image003[5]")
The intermediate Barometer eased 2.91 to 66.02 yesterday. It remains overbought.
![clip_image004[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/clip_image0045-6.png "clip_image004[5]")
The long term Barometer slipped 0.97 to 79.13 yesterday. It changed from extremely overbought to overbought on a slip below 80.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 22nd, 2021 at 10:02 am
MSFT now making a run for its’ all-time high clearing all previous highs since Sept. It’s been a long period of consolidation. AAPL I believe made an all-time high close yesterday. GOOGL I regret missing. AMZN may be the next one to make a run sometime soon. On all of these stocks that have consolidated you have a rising 200 day MA that has really closed the distance from market price. The FANGM group was dead money for some time but not anymore.
January 22nd, 2021 at 10:03 am
Missed one A there FAANGM.
January 22nd, 2021 at 10:27 am
UMC – Taiwanese semi making new highs after a recent consolidation period. Not overbought.
January 22nd, 2021 at 6:39 pm
I can’t get over how many Alberta and Ontario license plates I see in Victoria,B.C. Also see a few Manitoba and Quebec as well as Nova Scotia. Oddly enough very few Washington State plates which is right next door. No one though is talking about putting a bounty on them……………………………yet.
January 22nd, 2021 at 10:52 pm
Here is a 20 Year WEEKLY CHART of the $SPX. I can’t help but notice that price is now 1200 points above its well established long term uptrendline from 2009. Or 900 points above its 200ema. I’m amazed that very little has been said about this extreme distortion and its implications. (Caveat Emptor).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=1998-06-26&id=p86034484995&a=673066405
January 23rd, 2021 at 12:54 pm
Re 5 – From 2000 to 2021 the SPX has advanced from a peak of 1553 to 3841. Not much for 21 years. It works out to just over a 4% yearly compounded increase without adjusting for inflation.
January 23rd, 2021 at 1:26 pm
#6
From 2000 to 2013 the $SPX just traded sideways too…………..Price “ALWAYS” comes back to its long term trendlines. Any chart will tell you that. All the “rah,rah,rah” we’re going to the moon talk has never defied this fact. That’s another attitude that has never changed. I guess a person has to tell them selves that type of thing to justify the risk they are taking.
January 24th, 2021 at 8:47 am
RON/BC – I provided an observation. I’m not saying the market is not overbought. Can you give us the same chart you provided but on a logarithmic scale and determine how far we are above the long=term trendline?
January 24th, 2021 at 12:16 pm
#8
All a Logarithmic chart will do is make the chart look less overextended so less worrisome as it shows price changes as a percentage. Linear (arithmetic) charts show “absolute value”. Most human beings think linear as when price of anything goes up or down they think of “absolute value” made or lost, not what percentage increase or decrease the change was. You don’t spend percentages, you spend actual dollars.
January 24th, 2021 at 7:52 pm
re: #8,9,etc.
No ‘fighting’ you two, we need (and value) both of your viewpoints and conributions!
January 24th, 2021 at 9:35 pm
Still_Learning
That’s not fighting. I don’t even have my gun out,lol…………