Morning Technical Notes for Friday February 26th
Consumer Staples SPDRs (XLP) moved below $63.94 extending an intermediate downtrend.
![clip_image001[6]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/clip_image0016.png "clip_image001[6]")
Junior Gold ETF (GDXJ) moved below $46.93 extending an intermediate downtrend.
![clip_image002[6]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/clip_image0026.png "clip_image002[6]")
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) moved below US$37.21 extending an intermediate downtrend.
![clip_image003[6]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/clip_image0036.png "clip_image003[6]")
Pre-opening Comments for Friday February 26th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 15 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for January Personal Income was an increase of 9.5% versus a gain of 0.6% in December. Actual was a gain of 10.0%. Consensus for January Personal Spending was an increase of 2.5% versus a decline of 0.2% in December. Actual was an increase of 2.4%.
Salesforce.com (CRM) dropped $8.10 to $222.98 despite reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image001[4]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/clip_image0014.png "clip_image001[4]")
Booking Holdings (BKNG) added $6.80 to $2280.00 after Susquehanna raised its target price from $2,100 to $3,000.
![clip_image002[4]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/clip_image0024.png "clip_image002[4]")
Foot Locker (FL) dropped $5.58 to $47.15 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues.
![clip_image003[4]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/clip_image0034.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2021/02/25/stock-market-outlook-for-february-26-2021/
Media Events
Don Vialoux is a guest on two radio shows tomorrow (Saturday): Michael Campbell’s Money Talks at approximately 9:00 AM Vancouver time (Noon Toronto time) on www.CKND.com and Wolf on Bay Street at 7:00 PM Toronto time on Corus 640.
Technical Notes for Thursday February 25th
U.S. equity indices responded sharply to a spike in long term Treasury yields.
Dollar Tree (DLTR), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $99.82 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Gildan Activewear (GIL), a TSX 60 stock moved above $36.92 extending an intermediate uptrend. Fourth quarter sales and earnings exceeded consensus estimates.
Citigroup (C), an S&P 100 stock moved above $68.84 extending an intermediate uptrend.
TSX REIT iShares (XRE) moved above $16.77 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Oracle (ORCL), an S&P 100 stock moved above $65.95 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Canadian Tire (CTC.A), a TSX 60 stock moved below $163.87 completing a double top pattern.
Coffee ETN (JJOFF) moved above $11.60 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Health Care Providers iShares (IHF) moved below $237.22 completing a double top pattern.
ANSYS (ANSS), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $345.45/
Monster Beverages (MNST), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $85.36 completing a double top pattern.
Copart (CPRT), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $106.68 completing a modified Head & Shoulders pattern.
Duke Energy (DUK), an S&P 100 stock moved below $86.72 completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 25th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 25th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 25th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
The Canadian Technician
Greg Schnell notes “Large Cap Tech Drifts Lower”. Following is a link:
Large Cap Tech Drifts Lower | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com
Changes in Seasonality Ratings
Gold futures change from Positive to Negative to June 10th
Gold Bug Index changed from Positive to Neutral to March 20th
Platinum changes from Positive to Negative to December 15th
TSX Gold changes from Positive to Negative to June 15th
S&P Technology changes from Neutral to Positive to November 10th
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate Barometer dropped 7.41 to 60.12 yesterday. It remains Overbought and trending down.
The long term Barometer slipped 3.41 to 82.77 yesterday. It remains Extremely Overbought and trending down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate Barometer slipped 1.18 to 56.31 yesterday. It remains Neutral and trending down.
The long term Barometer added 0.36 to 73.79 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
|
|
February 26th, 2021 at 10:42 am
Thanks Ron for the charts. Next couple of weeks look very rocky in the market due to the concern with long term rates and still no return to normalcy. While its different circumstances potentially, we may be repeating a down turn in the market, wonder if March 25th will also be the low (or around there), time will tell. Larry, what is on your shopping list for tech for a correction?
February 26th, 2021 at 11:52 am
Ron/BC,
Could you please post a chart of the US/CAD. Looking to move back into Loonie Toonies at this level.
TIA
February 26th, 2021 at 1:01 pm
Re TRQ.to yesterday,
Tina,
trq.to is one of top copper/gold mines. rio owns controlled interest. It seems there are always disputes between different parties. It’s a very volatile stock. If the outlook for the copper were not very good last year, I would be too uncomfortable to own it.
The narrative for copper is good. EV cars use 3, 4x more copper than fuel cars; Digital infrastructure needs more copper; Supply has been weak due to covid; March/April is usually good for the metals… one interest fact is that copper is antimicrobial, so we all could have our doorknobs made of copper.
But I have to think risk first since all the good thing may have price in in the near term. Also, as I mentioned before, it’s price was up to the resistance.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:44 pm
Hi xh! Thanks for your reply. I agree with your assessment of copper. Glad TRQ.TO did well for you only now pulling back from resistance. I am looking for pure copper play with a peaceful mgmt (lol!).
Hi RON/BC: Thank you also for your reply on FCX. Watching this one to enter for purely copper production. I like that CEO is only focusing on copper as he sees huge demand for it. I like MU reacts so well to indicators.
What a week it has been!! Everyone have a great and safe weekend.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:58 pm
Tina,
Re: Copper.
Take a look at the CPER chart….I have been trading it since November, along with Beans.
Copper is on fire.
February 26th, 2021 at 3:20 pm
Hello Wayne Smith:
Thanks for mentioning CPER chart…have to admit that I didn’t know it existed. Ouch!
I have been trading some copper stocks only.
Only today copper price has pulled back, had been going up steadily. Where do you think is the support?
So do you trade this fund instead of copper stocks on US market?
Thanks Wayne!
February 26th, 2021 at 3:25 pm
Wayne Smith:
Re: CPER
I noticed just like AOSL, MU peer, it does not have much volume.
February 26th, 2021 at 3:36 pm
Tina.
re: Copper,
CS, Capstone Mining was also a very good Copper Play.
February 26th, 2021 at 4:09 pm
Tina,
CPER is based on U.S. copper futures. It is a trading vehicle with risk due to monthly roll. It is best to know what you are buying, if you buy. I believe Wayne Smith is an experienced futures trader
https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=CPER
February 26th, 2021 at 4:15 pm
Tina,
I traded a whack of calls when copper broke out between 3.70 – 3.80. I am tagging support for copper at that level, which would translate to a level around $ 24.00 for CPER.
There was news that a Chinese fund is long $1B in copper futures…
Don’t forget that copper, as in all commodities is USD sensitive.
February 26th, 2021 at 5:06 pm
My copper play is CMMC.TO. Have an almost quintuple in this one ad expect it to almost double from here.
February 26th, 2021 at 7:05 pm
Wayne Smith
I was thinking the same thing as far as switching back from U.S.$ to CD$ but have mixed emotions about that. The U.S.$ is still the world’s reserve currency. Price today on the CD$ fell to its 50ema & one year uptrendline. The CD$ chart is very choppy all of the time making it hard to count on any change. Should be good support at 77 if it sells off to there. And the 2nd chart shows the $CAD:$USD ratio chart well going back to 2004. Price is right at major resistance now with the CD$ and I’ll believe in the CD$ if and when it breaks out. Not holding my breath………..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71437416461&a=673066495
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CAD%3A%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61701593409&a=673066233
February 26th, 2021 at 9:27 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks Ron. My target at this point was .80.
I’ll move most of my US cash over at this level.
I still have my futures positions in USD – so I will let them ride.
February 26th, 2021 at 9:40 pm
Wayne Smith
Here is a chart of the Seasonal Trend for the CD$. It is preset at 5 years but you can slide it all the way up to 20 years. Over the last 5 years March is the worst month of the year. And several other time frames are also poor for the CD$. I’d like to see a breakout over resistance to get long. One can always buy FXC as well I guess.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24CDW
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXC%3AUUP&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58341467363&a=673066259
February 26th, 2021 at 10:44 pm
Money flows into investment accts such as RRSP and TFSA have a lot to do with the strong C$.
February 27th, 2021 at 9:41 am
Ron/BC,
dutchcanuck made a good point which makes a lot of sense.
Dealing with the US/CA exchange rate always reminds me of the Charlie Brown cartoon that you are always referring to. Poor Charlie is about to kick the football out of the park, when Lucy pulls it away from him. HA!!
Since I am down here in North Carolina, this takes on an more personal issue.
The CAD can move quickly either way when economic or political news hits the wires. I am satisfied with .80. And, as I mentioned above, I am still long a few comms.
Thanks for the charts!
February 27th, 2021 at 9:46 am
Copper.
Here is an article concerning Copper from Seeking Alpha.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4409371-copper-red-hot-enthusiasm?app=1&mail_subject=weekend-summary-on-your-portfolio-portfolio-1&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=link-6&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
February 28th, 2021 at 6:14 pm
For another perspective on copper with reasons for caution:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities/video/copper-rally-running-on-fumes-as-demand-grows-speculative-buying-slows-down-td-securities~2090576
February 28th, 2021 at 6:55 pm
Paula
Good down to earth perspective on Copper. Over exuberance always ends badly. Reminds me of the Gold rushes in the past. Would be nice to see a study that tracks the average length of time from the mainstream getting excited about a commodity or ETF and when they top out.
February 28th, 2021 at 7:21 pm
Dow up 192 pts in the Pre-Market …hmmm, here we go again?
https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
February 28th, 2021 at 9:15 pm
Still_Learning NTR
Been golfing much more recently and while still putting left hand low I’ve been thinking that perhaps I should buy a left hand putter to get an even better view of the flag without the stiff neck issue. Tried a left hand putter at GolfTown and was impressed just putting normally. They have a brass two sided putter for $149 so thought that might be the answer. Whadaya think?
February 28th, 2021 at 9:46 pm
Ron/BC
re:#19 thanks for the comment.
Good idea for a study.
February 28th, 2021 at 10:58 pm
Thank you everyone on comments about copper stocks! It is a worry when everybody is on oneside.
Appears everyone thinks it has lot of upside and are loading up. But need to keep an eye on the charts and fundamentals.
I own FCX, CMMC.TO and some Teck/B.TO.
February 28th, 2021 at 11:14 pm
Thoughts on copper stocks:
copper daily chart and FCX,CMMC.TO, CS.TO, FM.TO , HBM. TO, HBM, Teck/B.TO , Rio all have exactly same charts. They all will pull back or rock!!
Copper is up from $4.09 low from Friday. So this might be a small pullback as all were over bought or due to seasonality but there is heavy demand for it as per many articles online.
Any thougts /views are appreciated!
March 1st, 2021 at 12:49 am
re:#21 NTR
Ron/BC, I’m having trouble following your logic and your changing sides to putt …because I’m a leftie so I’ve got to visualize everything the other way around. I think left hand low started to encourage the firm left side (and a stiff neck) on short putts so you’d be more accurate. I don’t think it is as great for long putts. What about using left hand low on 10′ and in putts and a normal grip for longer putts where you really need more feel?
I also play with a rightie who putts all the time as a lefty with a left-handed putter. It works for him!
Bottom line, whatever works for you!
Bernie/Lethbridge