Tech Talk for Thursday April 1st 2021

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Morning Comments for Friday April 1st

Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report is released on Monday

Micron (MU), a NASDAQ 100 stock gained $4.45 to $92.66 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter sales and earnings after the close yesterday

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Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock gained $3.90 to $239.67 after winning a U.S. Army contract valued at $22 billion to produce AR handsets.

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KLA Tencor (KLAC), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $341.28 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Lam Research (LRCX), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $602.14 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Salesforce.com (CRM), an S&P 100 stock moved above $218.17 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Technical Notes for March 31st

S&P 500 Index briefly moved above 3,983.87 to an all-time high.

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Dollarama (DOL), a TSX 60 stock moved above $55.40 and $56.03 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Corn and soybean prices were “limit up” following release of the USDA’s estimated planting report for the 2021 season. The report forecasted below analyst expectations for planting of corn and soybeans. Soybean ETN (SOYB) moved above $21.63 to a four year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Corn ETN (CORN) moved above $17.55 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 31st 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 31st 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 30th 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index

 

Market Buzz

Greg Schnell discusses “A rotation into Defensives”. Following is a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y6Cdk0QOGc

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate Barometer added 2.20 to 82.36 yesterday. It remains Extremely Overbought.

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The long term Barometer added 1.20 to 93.99 yesterday. It remains Extremely Overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate Barometer added 0.48 to 66.51 yesterday. It remains Overbought.

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The long term Barometer added 0.48 to 78.47 yesterday. It remains Overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




24 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday April 1st 2021”

  1. bruce Says:

    the AAII sentiment figures show a backing off a bit…..the bulls have dropped to 45.8% from 50.9 and the bears are up to 23.2% from 20.6 the previous week………..

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of K.to which is a low priced Gold stock that’s been around for a long time. Price broke out over its downtrendline and is bumping up against 8.75 price resistance. Clearing and holding above this level would suggest another one to two dollars on the upside. Just happened to notice it this morning fwiw.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=K.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21430616161&a=673066567

  3. Wayne Smith Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Hey Ron!
    A number of Gold stocks, including ABX, are exhibiting Dr. Marty’s favorite pattern. The ABC pattern.
    So, I am looking for higher highs as this develops.
    Still long Gold (ABX – NY) into 2023.
    Also – just noticed your COPX chart from Tuesday. I am still holding my October calls – just sold another tranche – the April 16 calls against the position. Rinse and repeat.
    Thanx for the charts!

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Wayne

    Hey Wayne. Yes a lot of the Gold stocks are about to breakout. Here is GLD and price just needs to clear $166 to project a strong run up to the $180s area.

    And Copx is now just clearing that downtrendline and over $36 so “should” run up. It has consistently outperforming $Copper as well.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99728089420&a=673066441

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98747007595&a=673066422

  5. Wayne Smith Says:

    Ron/BC,
    I was tracking the COPX chart for a while. Considered trading it as opposed to CPER. I use the 40 RSI. If you replace the 8 RSI with the 40, you will get a longer term view of RSI strength.
    It keeps me in the trade.
    Gold is an odd duck. Many of my futures buds moved on to Bitcoin for the action and liquidity.
    They certainly got both!
    A friend of mine from the futures forum that you and I used to visit was a master of the gold trade. He stopped trading a couple of years ago when his strategy just didn’t work anymore. It happens. But, he used to make just over 100K a year for several years. He just traded the close and the next day open. There are so many myths out there about Gold. Once again, appreciate the charts! They are ALWAYS keepers!

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Wayne

    You are correct about the RSI 40 as it does define the trend better than the RSI 21 or even the RSI 8. I like the RSI 8 when it touches 30 for at least a short term bounce and the RSI 21 does tend give solid signals unless the chart is erratic. So thanks for the RSI 40 tip,I’ll continue to track it as it is more “consistent” in keeping you in the trade. Here it is on the COPX Daily chart under the RSI 8. Also GLD.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56230113366&a=673066422

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84192295048&a=673066441

  7. Wayne Smith Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Just LOVE those charts! Better than mine. HA!
    I was experimenting with various settings of the RSI. If you are in a longer term trade – the 40 keeps you in the trade.
    On another note. Re: Moving Averages.
    I just finished reading George Kleinmans book “Trading Commodities and Financial Futures”. He makes a good case for using the 23/30 EMA combo when trading commodities. Several other authors that I have read also refer to that combo as the best there is. Try it out.
    Off on my afternoon walk. It was 82 here yesterday. As I was walking by the lake – noticed a couple of gators drifting near the shoreline. Hibernation is over!

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Wayne

    I like the RSI 40 plus the 23ema and 30ema,thanks. Here is a one year chart of COPX with them on and underneath the price chart is the standard 20ema/50ema. That shorter combination along with the RSI 40 would suggest one “should have” gone long last May and held long ever since. Something to think about. I did come across that moving average combination long ago and liked it then but stuck with the standard 20ema/50ema as most traders use it so the price chart “should” respond to it.
    So you are in N.Carolina now right? Watch those alligators as they’ll be drooling at you walking by. We do that here too but not for alligators,just some of the ladies.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43286406790&a=931565384

  9. Wayne Smith Says:

    Ron/BC,
    The 40 kept you in the trade for the majority of the trend. I normally use the 13/34 EMA. The 23 and 30 are too close to one another. But, I am willing to consider it when constructing my charts.
    The 20/50 combo is equally effective if you are swing trading. I use the shorter EMA’s for trading stocks. I use the 23/30 when trading commodities. I have it on my charts for Soybeans, Gold and Copper.
    One other thing.
    Remember the 3 day rule? It kept me in Gold the other day when it fell to 19.44.
    BTW – the Gold trader that I was referring to earlier only traded 3 contracts. I think that his name was Howard….??
    Yes, I am in N Carolina. Heading back to Knucklestan on April 15.
    What ladies???? Hope that your sweetie isn’t a trader and tracking you here on the site! HA!!

  10. Vik Says:

    From yesterday:
    KC, I also have positions in VET.TO and MEG.TO. I watched Nuttal on BNN as well. Would be hard pressed to find a bigger Cdn Oil bull than him. His past picks from this time last year were stellar. Then again, most stocks have had a great run since the bottom last year.
    MEG.TO: https://schrts.co/MaAxUqhw
    MEG has been pulled back but hopefully it has found some support here. I’ve noticed that when 8 EMA pulls back to 34 EMA + support is respected or a bullish signal like divergence or candle formation it can be positive for stock price.

    CJ.TO – Watching this one. One of Nuttals picks as well. He see’s more upside even if oil stays at ~$60. Being careful however as it has run up about 400%+ since November! Don’t want to be a bagholder here… https://schrts.co/jqVtWgqQ https://schrts.co/WNJaEnIt CJ.TO has been running through bull flags/pennants/wedges so will be interesting to see if it continues. Thanks

  11. Vik Says:

    Ron/BC , Wayne :
    Great points as always. Good to know about RSI 40, will have to try that out as I have a habit exiting too soon. Have been using 3,8,17 EMA to identify trends and have found it to be pretty useful. I am in some copper plays like CMMC, FM, TECK/B, FCX. Here is a chart of COPX: https://schrts.co/qbRGRRcd
    The recent low happened to be at Fib 38, currently bullish divergence and trying to break out of a down trend. Hopefully the copper stocks get a lift as well. USD has also been up since end of Feb or so. I think this has also pulled back copper. Thanks

  12. Ana Says:

    And, the gap from February 21st, 2020 is finally filled.

    Great day to check on messages on Teck Talk! Great charts! Thank you!

  13. Ana Says:

    $VIX

    https://invst.ly/ucc-0

  14. SudburySatNight Says:

    Thanks everyone. I’m kinda of newbie to all this. I’ve been sitting on a couple of bucks waiting for a drop in the tsx and spx. Not a doom and gloom guy just looking for an entry point. Keeps getting away from me every time and we’re now over 4000 and closing in on 20k in T.O. Wondering if anyone has any thoughts for $SPX, I can see 3500 but 4175 seems more likely! Thanks from the north.

  15. Wayne Smith Says:

    Vik,
    Choosing indicators is a matter of what works best for you. A couple of traders that I trade with use NO indicators. They focus strictly on price.
    As you know, I use pivot levels. But, I also use EMA’s and the RSI to determine strength of the trend.
    You are right about the influence of the USD on comm prices. Many times I see a pullback and look for a catalyst – the USD is usually the culprit!
    A friend of mine trades coffee and she is always on the alert for a sudden change in the Brazilian Real and it’s relationship with the USD.

    Just try the 23/30 EMA and the 40 RSI on your charts.
    When I use the RSI – I draw the 50 line – AND alert lines above and below the 50 to give me a “heads up” on price movement. I draw dashed lines at the 60 and 40 levels. Construct a chart and look at these levels as trigger points – when to enter and exit. I often use it on 1 and 5 minute charts when daytrading Natgas. I start at 7:30 and usually hit my target by 10:00 am.

  16. Malcolm581 Says:

    Good morning all. I have been in the weeds for years on this site. Reading, absorbing and my head continues to spins.

    Ron/BC

    Several months ago you indicated using RSI 8 and RSI 21 on the $BPTSE and $BPSPX. This definitely simplified trading the indexes which part of my portfolio (company pension) is what I do. The part I struggle with is when to sell. I realize this is personal choice and no one will ever go broke taking profit. Being able to stay in the trade longer would be nice as a posed to panic selling like I just did at the beginning on March. At the end of the day my portfolio has increased which is the name of the game. What suggestions can you offer to hopefully take panic selling out? Are there indicators that you can suggest to take the emotion out of it? Buying became much easier using RSI 8/21 with the bullish percent index.
    .

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Malcolm581

    What is needed to stay in a trade is indicators that don’t change easily. A good combination is a 50ema and 200ema. The trend is positive as long as the 50ema is above the “RISING” 200ema but overall markets will not be super timely using longer term indicators. Can’t have it all and get out at the top or in at the bottom with them. We discussed using a RSI 40 on this blog and it is a good indicator when above the 50 line and doesn’t change quickly like most indicators that tend to be timely but also typically whip lash you at times. There are some examples of it on today’s comments. Also some talk about moving averages and historical uses of them. I’ve found the standard 20ema/50ema work well when rising but I’ve also used the 34ema being a Fibonocci number fits in well inbetween the two. Nice to see the 3 of them rising and a warning occurs when the 20ema drops below the 34ema. Then it’s time to make a decision on exiting but is not a long term indicator so can reverse back not long after. I usually watch “price” to see just how far it is “stretched” above the 200ema as well. Not good to see it a long ways above the 200ema. And the overall chart is more positive when price is having higher highs and higher lows on daily and weekly charts. Things like this are warning signals or a heads up type of thing. But price is king so sudden or dramatic moves need to see long term indicators hold their ground. And when all else fails it’s always better to be safe than sorry. I miss a lot of good trades as being retired I don’t like to gamble with my money like I once did. I’m not a trading junky and never experience FOMO. So try using the 20ema,34ema,50ema & 200ema on your charts along with the RSI 40. That will tell you a lot about short, medium & long term trends. The RSI 8 tagging the 30 line can be good for short term lows but often sees price go lower with a higher RSI 8 level. (positive divergence) So you don’t trade the indicator you trade price. Often best to see “price” reverse regardless of the RSI level. The Bullish Percent Index tells you a lot about the trend but is vague and not a timely indicator. Always tough to find the balance between timely and more certain. To get past the when to sell you can put on a “sell on a stop” that will automatically exit your trade when touched. You’d need to talk to your brokerage about the details of that stop to make sure it is a stop limit so you don’t get filled a long ways away from your price stop.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    Malcom581

    Here is the $BPSPX Bullish Percent Index you mentioned. (sorry to get off track on my previous post) I’ve overlaid the chart with SPY and have the RSI 8 up top and the RSI 21 below. It is far more difficult to catch a price high that it is a price low. You can just put on a stop limit on your order and let the market decide when to exit your trade. The only thing I’ve found that is a fairly good signal of a price high is seeing a negative divergence on the oscillator used along with the price high. When the indicator doesn’t also hit a new high that shows there is a loss of momentum which often leads to a price pullback. Not always but it a good heads up. Note the negative divergences from early January to mid March with price hitting new highs all along. A sell on a stop limit would let the market decide when to exit and is based on price,not the value of an indicator. Check with your broker about how to “exactly” word that instruction.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80780806087&a=673066278

  19. Wayne Smith Says:

    Malcolm581,
    I really can’t add much to what Ron/BC has outlined for you above. He has done an excellent job in providing the basics to trading – what to watch for.
    Ron and I have known each other for years and I have always found his posts very beneficial to my own trading.
    One approach he has always emphasized – ignore the story – just follow price. That changed my thinking about what I should focus on. There are all kinds of stories – but just one price!

    Here is a link to a trader who Ron and I both respect. Jason Leavitt. He is offering a free masterclass for traders. Check it out. He has a lot to offer
    Good luck with your trading. There are a number of excellent traders on this site who will offer sound advice and assistance if you reach out to them.
    Here is Jason’s course.
    https://www.udemy.com/course/jason-leavitts-mini-masterclass-in-trading/?utm_campaign=email&utm_source=sendgrid.com&utm_medium=email

    Top Trades!

  20. Rol Lew Says:

    copper
    https://6ix.com/event/6ix-presents-copper-panel-part-1/?utm_bmcr_source=client_web&utm_source=client_web

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?KDK.V,WRN.TO,TMQ.TO,HBM.TO,TECK/B.TO,ERO.TO,FM.TO,CMMC.TO,CPER,FCX,TRQ.TO,SCCO|D|0

  21. Wayne Smith Says:

    Rol Lew.
    Thanks for the link.
    I’ll listen in.

  22. Malcolm581 Says:

    Ron/BC & Wayne Smith

    I am very grateful for your very methodical responses. That is what makes this site so valuable. Having Don’s seasonality insight and individuals like yourself providing guidance is priceless. Thank you very much!

    Ron I like your idea of trying stop limits. I have never used them before due to the fear of being stopped out and then to watch the price continue higher. In the end I guess one will never go broke taking a profit and there is always a trade to make. I will definitely look at using the ema you suggested. I originally saw your post using $BPSPX Bullish Percent Index several months back. I saved the chart you provided and use it for my pension fund trading. I can’t use stop limits. It is very simple, buy / sell only and the company does not want traders. Buy and hold for ever is ideal in their mind. So using that chart minimizes the trades to a couple per year maybe. Fairly simple in my mind.

    Wayne Smith I will definitely look into Jason Leavitt class. I find it difficult to ignore the story if one reads or listens to the business news. There is always a reason why the market is doing what it is doing that day when either listening to the talking heads on TV or reading the business news.

    Thank you both for your suggestions. I greatly appreciate your feed back and enjoy reading everyone’s posts.

  23. Ron/BC Says:

    Malcom581

    Years ago traders always phoned their brokers both with stocks,options and commodities. It was great to get a heads up on what was happening around the world in financial markets. He told me about a financial reporter in New York that always came around looking for a story for the paper. My broker’s trader told him it was fairly quiet and there was no “story”. The reporter told him he couldn’t go back to the office without a story so my broker said McDonalds was now making bacon burgers which were selling strongly so pork bellies would be running up with the high consumption of bacon by them. The reporter went back to work and told his boss about that and put it in the financial news section and sure enough pork bellies rallied with the news. The rally didn’t go all that far or long but did make a point about stories. There was ‘some’ truth to the story but not enough to make a major change in the market direction. Just something to keep in mind as someone is always going to be coming up with the latest and hottest story to move the market. Price is king! And price can’t hide its tracks.

  24. Ana Says:

    Happy Easter Sunday to those celebrating Easter!

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