Pre-opening Comments for Thursday November 11th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 17 points in pre-opening trade.
Disney dropped $6.00 to $168.32 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0011-3.png "clip_image001[1]")
Beyond Meat dropped $9.74 to $84.74 after reporting a higher than consensus quarterly loss. The company also lowered guidance.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0021-7.png "clip_image002[1]")
Affirm Holdings jumped $37.07 to $170.60 after announcing a expanded partnership with Amazon.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0031-4.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2021/11/10/stock-market-outlook-november-11-2021/
Technical Notes released yesterday at
Real return of long-term treasury bonds at the lowest level since May of 1980, but this just bodes well for stocks as investors are pushed further out on the risk spectrum. equityclock.com/2021/11/09/… $TLT $TBT $IEF $TYX $BLV
Natural Gas ETN $UNG moved below $17.13 and $16.49 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern. "Gassy" stocks and related ETFs (e.g. $FCG) are sharply lower.
Biotech NASD iShares $IBB moved below $153.38 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Zoom Video $ZM a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $250.11 extending an intermediate downtrend
Procter & Gamble $PG a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $146.32 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Gold bullion ETN $GLD moved above $171.52 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Silver bullion ETN $SLV moved above $22.98 and $23.04 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Platinum ETN $PPLT moved above $100.45 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Gold equity ETF $GDX moved above $33.95 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Silver equity ETF $SIL moved above $41.67 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern
Gold iShares $XGD.CA moved above Cdn$18.32 and Cdn$18.45 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern
Barrick Gold $ABX.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$24.72 completing a double bottom pattern
Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM a TSX 60 stock moved above US$42.63 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Nov.10th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Nov.10th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Nov.10th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX).
Market Buzz
Greg Schnell discusses “the art of selling your stock”. Following is a link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsJHiLLH82I
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.40 to 74.55 yesterday. It remains Overbought and continues to trend higher.
The long term Barometer added 0.60 to 76.75 yesterday. It remains Overbought and continues to trend higher.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.83 to 72.25 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 1.44 to 72.73 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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November 11th, 2021 at 9:02 am
Thanks TechTalk for the amazing real return bond chart above. It gives investors a lot to think about. The bond market is going to be crushed. Money flows into equities but when do higher interest rates slow growth and have a negative impact on equities? The economy is a lot different now than 40 years ago. Technology provides a continuing deflationary force. We may be able to get through this for an extended period before causing eventual recession. Someone like Jeremy Siegel would be great for an explanation.
November 11th, 2021 at 12:25 pm
Nice Breakout on FCX.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03369698284&a=673066187
November 11th, 2021 at 12:42 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for your charts and comments last night. As you say, in spite of the possible negatives, as long as the breakouts hold, all is well… For me, it will be a test of how patiently I can stay with the trend.
I’m guessing you might be trading these gold charts short term. I hope you do well.
November 11th, 2021 at 1:00 pm
Paula
I generally don’t stick around long with stocks. I get in and get out as there is always tomorrow and another chart pattern. I used to trade the EMINI S&P and enjoyed that. My favourite trade is buying then selling a condo. There should be a Victoria condo ETF to trade. That would make life much easier. Could just use the bank’s money then too. I used to buy a 1000oz Silver Certificate from the Bank of Nova Scotia. I’d borrow their money to buy it and then sell it when it appreciated. That was fun……………and profitable. The banker seemed to worry about it more than I ever did,lol.
November 11th, 2021 at 1:37 pm
staying in the trade
the T line 8 ema
Stephen Bigalow … Candlestick forum
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T-line
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or
https://gru1yefj.pages.infusionsoft.net/?cookieUUID=8a582294-3bcb-447c-a21a-bf25e7f9db3f&affiliate=0
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p62962068138
(no position)
November 11th, 2021 at 1:45 pm
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAYX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p62962068138
(yes position)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSCO&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p62962068138
(yes position)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BNS.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p62962068138
(yes position
November 11th, 2021 at 1:49 pm
$CAD has really fallen off a cliff. I’m not sure why or how far this is going. It broke below the 200 day MA and I guess support is down around 0.78.
FCX – Pete Najarian is keen on it. All the materials stocks are ripping higher on inflation news.
Financials are crawling higher if you prefer making money on a much slower pace.
RIVN has been a great trade since yesterday but you don’t want to be left holding the bag when profit taking sends it down. I have really dispensed with any skepticism of TSLA shares now.
November 11th, 2021 at 1:58 pm
Ron/BC & Paula
I find it very hard to trust anything related to gold. Somehow I like to say it feels different this time. Hearing the inflation call has made me feel this. How is it with you guys?
November 11th, 2021 at 2:13 pm
Rol Lew – CSCO – I looked at it and fundamentally it is a value semi. I didn’t buy because it underperforms SMH. If you want to go value how about MU? It is breaking its’ downtrend line. It has been trashed.
BNS – With the banks you have to try to go to which ever is performing best – BMO, BAC
November 11th, 2021 at 2:18 pm
Dave/AB
I see your point. With Bitcoin around $GOLD just isn’t as attractive as it once was. But I believe in charts and they don’t B.S. like most everything and everyone else does. Long ago when you had to have a stock broker you’d have to take the broker’s word for most everything. And you know he just wants a commission and a lot of what he says is just a lot of B.S. So I studied charts and found they don’t B.S. nearly as much,lol. So I’m a lot fussier when it comes to take a precious metals trade. And I get out even faster. Here is a long term chart of the $GOLD ETF:GLD. The pattern over the last 18 months is a Symmetrical Triangle which is very bullish forming off a steady rally from 2018. Price appears to be breaking out over the downtrendline of that pattern which should be explosive. No guarantee it will but that’s what the chart says. I just buy and unload when I’m not comfortable with the trade. I learned long ago it is much smarter to hold onto your money than risk it needlessly just for the cheap thrill of trading it. And I trade short term even with property. And for trading I always use Daily charts rather than Weekly. It’s more like looking at a chart with glasses on……..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52730198455&a=1061010983
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18892838606&a=673066441
November 11th, 2021 at 2:20 pm
Rol Lew,
Thanks for the suggestion/link. Don’t think I will be able to tune in live but if there is a recording of it that would be interesting.
I appreciate your charts with declared position. I used to own CSCO but gave up on it many years ago. I currently own TD and RY, both of which I sold over the summer and then got back into; did own BMO until early summer and sold too soon, in hindsight, and have not bought back.
November 11th, 2021 at 2:36 pm
Dave/AB,
I don’t trust anything related to gold. But I do trust the charts. All the information that is out there is reflected in the charts and the “reasons” don’t matter. People talk about gold as an inflation hedge but I don’t count on that. What matters is the strength of the trend. The last few days in gold and gold stocks has caused enough of a move that the downtrend has been broken and an uptrend is underway. How long it lasts, I have no idea and I don’t believe anyone else does. There will be profit taking along the way and especially around the previous highs in June. I don’t know if I will stay with the trade that long and this is a trade for me, not an investment.
November 11th, 2021 at 2:39 pm
Belarus is floating the idea of cutting off Russian gas that is piped through to Europe. The EU really has to diversify away from Russian gas. The Germans and the Russians have a long-term understanding that gas supply will be free of any political games. The Russians have to be smart because they know that if they ever do this even just once it is game over and you have lost your biggest customer who will now go to other suppliers. The Americans are clamoring to ship LNG and are now going to say we told you so when they opposed Nord Stream 2
November 11th, 2021 at 2:59 pm
Paula…..you may want to check with Jonathan’s seasonality charts for both TD and RY……
November 11th, 2021 at 3:11 pm
Looks like the EURO has broken down. Lots of transactions to that………….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XEU&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59259098070&a=673066224
November 11th, 2021 at 3:32 pm
Bruce,
Re your #14: thanks for the heads up BUT, I believe the upcoming possible seasonal weakness in banks will be reflected in the charts of the stocks themselves. If they break down, I will be out. Jon and Don are the first to admit that seasonals do not always work. In my opinion, they certainly did not for banks this year. In spite of this site being based on seasonal investing, I find seasonals to be the least of my considerations.
November 11th, 2021 at 4:06 pm
RON/BC – USD is going up against everything. $DXY has spiked. The US 10 year really went up today. The ECB said they aren’t planning on raising rates in 2022. I bet this slide in the EURO takes it down eventually to the 107 level.
Banks – With rising rates this is a sector that should continue to perform well. Just look at the guidance they give out when they report and what the revisions are to target prices. If revisions are negative you want to clear out. If positive you stay with it.
November 11th, 2021 at 6:11 pm
Larry/ON
Yes I believe the U.S.$ will do well too. And the banks are loaded with cash with rates rising…..can’t go wrong……………….The government can say anything but when faced with reality will reverse their comments. And with all those home owners up to their neck in cheap money I think they will find out what happens to those that over borrow. I recall the run up in rates into 1981 and people were scrambling to keep their homes. Many didn’t……
November 11th, 2021 at 6:31 pm
The U.S.$ broke out above major price resistance today as the chart shows. And that was just a Fibonacci 38.2% breakout point. Lots more to go. (overlaid is GLD)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37517763470&a=673066460
November 11th, 2021 at 6:43 pm
The RETAIL ETF:XRT continues to hold above its big breakout point. Very impressive…so far.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59259098070&a=673066352
November 11th, 2021 at 8:21 pm
RON/BC – I was a teenager in 1981 but I knew what was going on economically. My father bought the family cottage that year when interest rates were in the high teens. The seller gave a vendor take back mortgage at about 7% below what the 5 year mortgage rate was at the time. If you wanted to sell few people had cash and few could afford to borrow. I think most people today never heard of vendor take back mortgages.
Jim Cramer on Mad Money discussed evidence of huge economic strength in retail sales. He also put to rest the idea that growth stocks are going to crater because of inflation calling it scare mongering.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/11/jim-cramer-on-stagflation-concerns-and-retail-earnings.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/11/cramer-doubles-down-says-inflation-driven-dips-are-buy-opportunities.html?recirc=taboolainternal