Pre-opening Comments for Friday November 26th
U.S. equity index futures moved sharply lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 79 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures reflect general weakness by equity indices around the world in overnight trade with most indices down 2-4% Indices are responding to news that a new variant of COVID 19 has expanded internationally from its source in Africa.
Trading on U.S. equity markets closes today at 1:00 PM EDT.
Responses to the new COVID 19 variant were strongest in commodity prices. WTI crude oil plunged $4.25 to US$75.14 per barrel. Gold gained $18.60 per ounce to $1,805.60 per ounce. Crude oil dropped $4.32 to $74.07 per barrel. The commodity sensitive Canadian Dollar fell 0.73 to US78.34 cents
![clip_image001[3]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0013.png "clip_image001[3]")
![clip_image002[3]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0023.png "clip_image002[3]")
Airline stocks were notably weaker on the COVID 19 news. The airline ETF JETS dropped $1.61 to $20.51 in pre-opening trade.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0031-12.png "clip_image003[1]")
Vaccine related stocks were notably higher on the COVID 19 news. Moderna gained $37.61 to $311.00. Pfizer added $3.16 to $54.05
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0041-5.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2021/11/24/stock-market-outlook-for-november-26-2021/
Technical Notes released on Wednesday at
As the financial sector bounces from levels of previous resistance, now support, we are seeing encouraging data on loan growth for October. equityclock.com/2021/11/23/… $XLF $VFH $IYF $KIE $IAK $KBE $KRE
Mexico iShares $EWW moved below $46.19 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern
Electronic Arts $EA a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $124.88 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Autodesk $ADSK a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $271.09 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Skywork Solutions $SWKS a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $153.99 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Okta $OKTA a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $209.65 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Corn ETN $CORN moved above $21.71 and $21.85 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences turn positive in early December and peak in mid-March. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see: https://charts.equityclock.com/corn-futures-c-seasonal-chart
Suncor $SU.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$33.44 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable between now and at least early March. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see: https://charts.equityclock.com/suncor-energy-inc-tsesu-seasonal-chart
Technical Notes release yesterday at
Canadian Energy iShares $XEG.CA moved above $11.06 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences on a real and relative basis are favourable to mid-April. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see: https://charts.equityclock.com/ishares-sptsx-capped-energy-index-etf-tsexeg-seasonal-chart
Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$55.19 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences on a real and relative basis are favourable to late April. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see: https://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-natural-resources-limited-tsecnq-seasonal-chart
More reason to ignore seasonal adjustments: Headlines point to a sharp drop in initial jobless claims last week, sending the tally to the lowest level since 1969. Stripping out the manipulation, we are seeing the largest one week increase in claims in over a month as the year-to-date change starts to flat-line. Initial claims actually sit at 258,622, up 18,187 from the week prior. $MACRO $STUDY $ECONOMY $EMPLOYMENT
REITs starting to perk up now that their period of seasonal weakness has come to an end. equityclock.com/2021/11/24/… $IYR $XLRE $VNQ
Interfor $IFP.CA moved above Cdn$34.24 extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength in Interfor as well as other North American forest product stock. Seasonal influences are favourable between now and next April. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see
https://charts.equityclock.com/interfor-corp-tseifp-seasonal-chart
Telus $T.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above $29.68 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Nov.24th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Nov.24th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Nov.25th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX).
Early Bird price is $199 versus regular price at $249.
Links Offered by Valued Providers
Thank you to Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com for links to the following:
The rise of Chinese bonds
Uncommon Sense Investor, Author at Uncommon Sense Investor
Why China’s regime could topple quickly
Why China’s Regime Could Topple Quickly – Uncommon Sense Investor
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
for November 24th
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.60 to 67.74 on Wednesday. It remains Overbought and trending down.
The long term Barometer eased 0.80 to 72.95 on Wednesday. It remains Overbought and trending down.
TSX Momentum Barometers for November 25th
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0011-6.png "clip_image001[1]")
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.30 to 64.35 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/clip_image0021-15.png "clip_image002[1]")
The long term Barometer added 0.76 to 65.28 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
|
|
November 26th, 2021 at 8:37 am
Thanks for posting personal borrowed numbers, what do you think about nat gas price because winter is coming, and in case we have a cold then demand will be high?
safe trading
November 27th, 2021 at 2:21 pm
I came across this comment and thought everyone should think about this:
“Learn to have no loyalty to your positions.”
How many time have you heard someone who is up to his ears in stocks say after a sell off:
“It’ll come baaaaaaaaaaaak”. And always with a desperate whine to their voice. Lots of times a market will come back for awhile but at some point when everyone is in love with stocks and “all in” the market will selloff hard for a very long time until all hope is lost. That’s when you don’t talk about stocks to them anymore. And the low will be in when even they stop defending the market………………
November 27th, 2021 at 3:50 pm
re: #2
So true Ron.
A collateral to that thought is a quote I often remind myself of when holding a loosing position:
“Things are never so bad that they can’t get worse. But they are sometimes so bad that they can’t get better.” Mignon McLaughlin
November 27th, 2021 at 4:17 pm
Re 2 and 3 – When the pandemic started and the you know what hit the fan I was overseas and my first concern was getting earlier return tickets for my family to come home after JT told us all to do so. I was all in the market and I rode it all the way down and all the way back up and had my best year ever.
Bull markets are full of regretful sellers. If you were smart enough to take some off the table earlier in the week (and I did specifically mention this on Monday) you have opportunity to buy at lower levels. If you did not already do so you are now in no-mans land. The market likely drops on Monday and we are quickly close to support at the 50day MA. Are you nimble enough to buy back in before prices reverse. How far do they go? You can’t be sure. If you do sell the best is to buy back in too early rather than risk a market whiplash that leaves you with no gain for your transaction and possibly with the prospect of buying back higher. Panic selling is great for bottom feeding big money who will be waiting with open arms. This is a bull market.
November 27th, 2021 at 5:23 pm
re: 4
Difference of opinion is good. That is why there is a market.
November 27th, 2021 at 5:28 pm
FishFat
#2 very correct.Ive found over the decades the investors who insist on the market recovering all the time are up to their ass in stock and can’t accept the idea of a lasting major selloff no matter how smart or successful they have been. They are blinded by their past successes and will actually get angry at anyone that differs with them. I’ve known many like that.No point in arguing with them as they are blind to the change in trend. My old business partner was like that so we wouldn’t talk about his positions that were plunging. I’d tell him it’s not a marriage but just an affair so get over it and yourself.
November 27th, 2021 at 5:32 pm
Omicron – The information so far is that the infected have mild symptoms and it has not been associated with more severe cases of Covid. In a pandemic this historically is the course as viruses become less severe in an effort to increase transmissibility as severity and transmissibility usually have an inverse relationship. Early days but if Omicron is milder and can push out Delta as the dominant mutation that would be interesting. Enough rose colour epidemiology from me.
November 27th, 2021 at 5:32 pm
FishFat
It’s amazing how clear it becomes once you’ve dumped your loser stock and are free to think rationally again.
November 27th, 2021 at 5:44 pm
FishFat
#3 I learned that decades ago. “NEVER HOLD A LOSING POSITION”.There is always a “STORY” to explain it all away. I posted here a week ago about a major sell-off overdue. Recall:TIMBERRRRRR. And I’m no stock guru.No story needed to explain it all away.
November 28th, 2021 at 6:21 am
USD/CAD has had a good run this month. USD at 1.27 is right at resistance. Will it break or fail ? (again) Any thoughts out there?
November 28th, 2021 at 3:38 pm
“Global food prices hit the highest level in 10 years in October, marking an increase of more than 30% compared to the same period one year ago”
https://thedeepdive.ca/global-fertilizer-shortage-threatens-to-send-food-prices-even-higher/
November 28th, 2021 at 7:25 pm
Niaomi
The only resistance I see on the $USD is price is at the Fibonacci 50% retracement level. Also the Oscillators are overbought. Not enough for a major selloff especially since it broke out over major resistance at 94.79. A pullback to that breakout point would be typical but not a sure thing. I am biased as I have all my RIF money in U.S.$ so wont be as objective as perhaps I should be. (human nature). Here is the chart with the $CDW overlaid in pink and GLD overlaid in gold for reference. Also the seasonal trend chart link below. Unfortunately the seasonal trend for December according to this Seasonal chart is very bearish. As always draw your own conclusions………….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76637757656&a=673066460
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24USD
And here is the $USD compared to the $XEU
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89321083859&a=673066374
November 29th, 2021 at 2:07 am
As strong as the sell off was Friday there was no major damage to the $SPX chart yet.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38280655635&a=939923011