Tech Talk for Monday November 29th 2021

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 29th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 35 points in pre-opening trade.

WTI crude oil recovered $3.55 to U.S. $71.70 per barrel.

Merck dropped $3.11 to $79.16 after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral

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Pfizer added $0.49 to $54.49 after JP Morgan raised its target price from $42 to $53.

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Canadian Pacific dipped $0.11 to US$71.20 after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold

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United Parcel Service fell $0.85 to $204.45 after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2021/11/26/stock-market-outlook-for-november-29-2021/

 

The Bottom Line

Broadly based equity indices around the world moved sharply lower on Friday Concerns about a new COVID 19 variant took its toll. If history is used as a guide, North American equity markets have entered into a choppy period between now and December 14th followed by a the strongest three week period during the year from December 15th to January 6th .

 

Observations

Short term short term indicators for U.S. equity indices and sectors (20 day moving averages, short term momentum indicators) moved sharply lower last week.

Intermediate term technical indicator for U.S. equity markets (Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average) moved lower last week. It changed from Overbought to Neutral. Trend is down and has yet to show signs of bottoming. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Long term technical indicator for U.S. equity markets (Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average) moved lower last week. It remained Overbought. Trend remains down. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Short term momentum indicators for Canadian indices and sectors moved lower last week.

Intermediate term technical indicator for Canadian equity markets changed from Overbought to Neutral last week on a move below 60.00. Trend remains down and has yet to show signs of bottoming. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Long term technical indicator for Canadian equity markets (Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average) moved lower again last week. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a move below 60.00. Trend remains down and has yet to show signs of bottoming. See Barometer charts at the end of this report.

 

Economic News This Week

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellon give testimony on the U.S. economy to congressional committees on Monday and Tuesday.

September Canadian GDP to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in August.

November Chicago PMI to be released at 9:45 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to slip to 68.2 from 68.4 in October.

October Construction Spending to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.4$ versus a decline of 0.5% in September

November ISM Manufacturing PMI to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 61.0 from 60.8 in October.

Beige Book is expected to be released at 2:00 AM EST on Wednesday.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase to 250,000 from 199,000 last week.

November Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 563,000 from 531,000 in October. November Unemployment Rate is expected to slip to 4.5% from 4.6% in October. November Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in October.

November Canadian Employment to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 40,000 versus a gain of 31,200 in October.

October Factory Orders to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.2% in September.

November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 65.0 from 66.7 in October.

 

Selected Earnings News This Week

Focus is on fourth quarter earnings reports released by Canada’s big banks

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Nov.26th 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Nov.26th 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Nov.26th 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX).

 

Links offered by Valued Providers

 

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for Saturday November 27th

https://omny.fm/shows/money-talks-with-michael-campbell/november-27th-episode

 

Thank you to David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com for a link to Technical Scoop

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Friday-special-Powell-reaction-gold-crash-stock-minicrash-oil-crash-Dollar-thrust-yield-fall.pdf

 

Thank you to Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com for the following links:

Innovative Low-Risk Way to Play the Copper Boom – Uncommon Sense Investor

 

Eight oil companies set to storm back into main TSX index in long-awaited energy resurgence | Financial Post

 

The 30 Best Stocks of the Past 30 Years | Kiplinger

 

Greg Schnell says “Ignore the news”. Following is the link:

Ignore The News | ChartWatchers | StockCharts.com

 

Mark Leibovit on Howe Street Radio: Will there be a Santa Claus rally this year?

HOWE-STREET-VISUAL-NOV-25.jpg (1906×827) (leibovitvrnewsletters.com)

 

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

 

Changes Last Week

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Technical Notes released on Friday at

StockTwits.com@EquityClock

A wide variety of big cap U.S. and Canadian equities have moved below intermediate support this morning. U.S. equities include $TCOM $BA $HON $BMY $CSX . TSX 60 stocks included $ARX.CA $CCL.B.CA $SNC.CA

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U.S. Airlines ETF $JETS moved below $21.18 extending an intermediate downtrend. Impacted by rising COVID 19 concerns.

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Germany iShares $EWG moved below $32.05 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responding to rising COVID 19 concerns.

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South Africa iShares $EZA moved below extending an intermediate downtrend. Reacting to new variant of COVID 19 initially detected in South Africa

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India ETF $PIN moved below $27.89 completing a double top pattern. Responding to rising COVID 19 infections.

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Aerospace & Defense iShares $ITA moved $100.13 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Emerging markets ETF $EEM moved below $49.11 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Australia iShares $EWA moved below $24.50 resuming an intermediate downtrend.

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Pacific ex Japan iShares $EPP moved below$48.06 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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CGI Group $GIB a TSX 60 stock moved below US$83.89 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer plunged 15.03 to 52.71 on Friday and 9.82 last week to 52.71.. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Trend remains down.

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The longer term Barometer dropped 7.21 on Friday and 5.01 last week to 65.73. It remains Overbought and continues to trend down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer plunged 19.65 on Friday and 20.72 last week to 44.70. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Trend remains down.

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The long term Barometer dropped 5.27 on Friday and 10.18 last week to 59.91. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a move below 60.00. Trend remains down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




5 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday November 29th 2021”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Omicron – Great interview with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on CNBC this morning. The bottom line is that we are learning to live with Covid. They are studying the variant and at this point the idea is that vaccine will still be effective but perhaps less so. He was very confident that the newly developed protease inhibitor oral drug cannot be evaded by new variants because it uses a different mechanism than targeting the spike protein that has changed in the new mutation. Pfizer has production capacity of 1 billion vaccine doses per quarter. There is no evidence yet that the new mutation has caused increased hospitalization in South Africa and hospitalization that has been occurring is attributed to Delta.

    There may be some further short-term supply chain disruptions caused by Omicron but overall there is presently no major concern about an impact on economic growth.

  2. Dave/AB Says:

    SP from 26 Nov – Nat Gas Pricing

    Here is an interesting chart on European Nat Gas pricing. This will help CDN companies with operations in Europe. Nat Gas pricing is mainly controlled by the Russians.

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/europe_natural_gas_price

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    CNN market sentiment indicator hit 33 (fear) on Friday and is 44 (fear) today. Froth came out. Buy the dip prevailed. Tom Lee of Fundstrat says he would aggressively buy here. There is a lot of support here for stocks. The weak hands are now going to be faced with seller’s regret. I am a broken record but the no-brainer trade that everyone knows that will continue to work for a long, long, time is simply to hold MSFT.

    NVDA never broke below the rising 20day MA and looks poised to take out $350 within days. I took some profits above 340 and have since gone all back in. SMH is doing really well. Look at LRCX. AMAT is rebounding after a slight earnings miss. MU is consolidating a bit after a huge run-up.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a long term chart of the Canadian Dollar $CDW along with the Seasonal Trend chart below. Price needs to clear $83.29 to suggest a trend change back to “UP” again. Time to pay attention to it though as December is the strongest month of the year for the Canadian Dollar!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50472812799&a=673066213

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24CDW

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    Maple Syrup – Quebec has announced that it will respond to the global maple syrup shortage by releasing half of the “International Strategic Maple Syrup Reserve” guarded in Saint-Antoine-de-Tilly Quebec.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-quebec-to-release-half-its-maple-syrup-strategic-reserve-over-global/

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