Tech Talk for Friday December 3rd 2021

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday December 3rd

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 12 point in pre-opening trade.

U.S. equity index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for November Non-farm Payrolls was an increase to 563,000 from upwardly revised 546,000 in October. Actual was an increase of 210,000. Consensus for the November Unemployment Rate was a slip to 4.5% from 4.6% in October. Actual was.unchanged at 4.6%. Consensus for November Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in October. Actual was an increase of 0.3%.

The Canadian Dollar advanced 0.33 to US78.31following release of Canada’s November Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an increase of 37,000 versus a gain of 31,200 in October. Actual was an increase of 153,700. Consensus for the November Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 6.6%. Actual was a drop to 6.0%.

Ulta Beauty jumped $18.46 to $402.10 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter results. The company also raised fourth quarter guidance.

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Marvel Technology advanced $11.03 to $84.06 after the company reported higher than consensus quarterly results. The company also raised guidance.

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Docusign plunged $64.02 to $169.80 after the company lowered guidance.

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2021/12/02/stock-market-outlook-for-december-3-2021/

 

Wolf on Bay Street

Don Vialoux is a guest on Wolf’s weekly radio show released at 7:00 PM EST tomorrow (Saturday). Connect to HiFi Radio on Global News Radio 640 Toronto 

 

Technical Notes released yesterday at

StockTwits.com@EquityClock

Short-term trend of the S&P 500 showing a declining megaphone pattern. equityclock.com/2021/12/01/… $SPX $SPY $ES_F $STUDY

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Commerce Bank $CM.CA a TSX 60 stock moved below $139.62 and $137.97 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Idexx Labs $IDXX a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $597.84 extending an intermediate downtrend

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Kirkland Lake $KL.CA a TSX 60 stock moved below $47.89 extending an intermediate downtrend

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Another silvers stock breakdown! Hecla Mining $HL moved below $5.08 extending an intermediate downtrend. Tax loss selling pressures in the sector?

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Facebook $FB an S&P 100 stock moved below $308.11 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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VALE $VALE one of the largest base metals producers in the world moved above intermediate resistance at US$12.89. Responding to rising demand for base metals under Biden’s "Build Back Better" program.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Dec.2nd 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Dec.2nd 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Dec.2nd 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX).

 

Market Buzz

Greg Schnell takes the journey to stock exchanges around the world demonstrating that the recent chart weakness in America might have some peers. Following is a link:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgS-iLx5U3w

 

Seasonality chart of the day from www.EquityClock.com

Seasonal influences on a real and relative basis for base metal stocks and related ETFs (e.g. XBM.TO, PICK, COPX) are favourable between now and the third week in February.

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Technicals for XBM are improving. Intermediate trend is up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has just turned positive. Shares recently moved above their 20, 50 and 200 moving averages. The sector is a major beneficiary of Biden’s “Build Back Better” program.

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer advanced 14.03 to 43.29 yesterday. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.

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The long term Barometer added 7.82 to 61.52 yesterday. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a return above 60.00.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer added 7.83 to 29.95 yesterday. It remains Oversold.

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The long term Barometer added 5.99 to 53.00 yesterday. It remains Neutral.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




18 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday December 3rd 2021”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Tech Talk’s SP500 Short-Term Declining Megaphone Chart Pattern – Declining megaphone chart patterns are bullish reversal patterns while ascending megaphone chart patterns are bearish reversal patterns.

    BMO – Nice 25% increase to the dividend plus a share buyback program of 3.5% of shares. They had a good quarter beating eps forecasts. I have to laugh at Barclays because they are always on the pessimistic side on Cdn banks with the lowest target prices. For whatever reason the media quotes them first for analysis and John Aiken says earnings were “fine if unspectacular” (that’s a 36% “unspectacular” YOY increase in the quarter) Why did Aiken only put a $127 Cdn target price back in August and now claim that earnings were “positive as expected”? He’s never going to admit to underestimating BMO.

  2. bruce Says:

    I’m surprised we haven’t seen any stock splits from the Canadian banks…….

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    CM – There was a huge sell off yesterday and then it slowly crept back up closing at the 200 day MA. That was a major buy point for the stock. This stock was heavily shorted compared to the other big six and I am guessing a lot of the shorts closed out their positions on the drop for healthy gains. The reason for the sell-off was the less than expected EPS. The morning after you now have research reports dissecting the quarterly report. The miss was based on higher than expected expenses but RBC maintains their outperform rating and in fact raises their target price to $169. John Aiken who I criticized on BMO actually puts an overweight rating on CM maintaining a $162 target price and calls CM’s loan growth quite good. This was the low point for the stock.

  4. Vik Says:

    Any thoughts on silver? Has had a steep drop recently and wondering where support could be…

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a Daily chart of the $SPX. Price broke important support being the September high of 4545 Friday but bounced back and closed above 4545 Monday. Price is once again zig zagging above and below support at 4545 as traders are betting on support holding overall or failing and getting short. Bottom line is this price point needs to hold to suggest support held and price should continue to rise. That would cause short sellers to cover their short positions and that alone would cause the $SPX to rally sharply. Add to that buyers chasing the short sellers out of the market would increase the strength of a rally back up. I personally wouldn’t bet on that scenario as most indicators are still bearish and if price closes below 4545 again buyers will likely throw in the towel and sellers will short the life out of the $SPX. I would think the sell off would then be sharp and fast. But that’s just my take on it……..Bottom line: Watch that 4545 for a signal.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p45339341740&a=1073739246

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    VIK

    $SILVER is in a sideways $8 channel for the last 18 months and trading between $22 and $30. So support is $22 technically and resistance is $30. Never a guarantee support or resistance will hold but tends to be a good bet. There is also a ratio chart of $Silver:$Gold above. The 2nd chart is a Seasonality chart of $Silver that shows December and January tend to be a couple of the strongest months of the year. As always draw your own conclusions………………..

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71355175594&a=807238865

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24SILVER

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Vic
    Here is the $Silver ETF:SLV that shows price support at $20.50 and a very oversold market.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18731143465&a=673066239

  8. Paula Says:

    Re: XBM.TO

    I disagree with EquityClock.com’s assessement of XBM. I don’t see the technicals improving. MACD is declining with a sell and has just turned negative; RSI(8) is declining and below 50; strength relative to the S and P 500 may have been positive yesterday but it is negative today and also relative to the TSX and relative strength has been a downtrend since May. Also shares moved below the 20 and 50 EMA’s today. So what looked like improvement yesterday is going the other way today. Will there be a comment on that I wonder. There was a similar write up recently and even though it is supposed to be a seasonally strong time for base metals, to me it looks more like wishful thinking.

    I don’t usually make comments on the assessments by our generous hosts but the repeat of this favourable point of view just seems wrong to me. Seasonals don’t always work…

    https://schrts.co/mjHGVmRq

  9. Larry/ON Says:

    This was a day that I think put some fear in many investors but this is nothing unusual for what was an overbought market two weeks ago. Take a look at QQQ and MSFT finding support at the 50 day MA. I was a buyer of MSFT today at 320. A lot of high flying tech stocks got a haircut purging a lot of froth. AMZN and SHOP hit their 200 day MAs and found support there. SPX is finding support at the 50 day MA.

  10. Ron/bc Says:

    Paula

    Re#8.there will always be the RAH,RAH,RAH crowd raving bullish comments about most stocks as they are up to their asses in them and need to believe in them to sleep at night. I’ve known many of them and the bullish song is always sung until the end regardless of the reality. I’m not referring to seasonal comments.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I’ve just looked at XBM.to on my computer charts rather than my cell phone. Much better view on my computer.
    Here is a 2 year chart of XBM.to The last 6 months have formed a two dollar sideways channel. The only thing technically bullish I can see on the chart is this sideways 6 month channel did form after a long uptrend which suggests it is bullish technically. Doesn’t mean it’s a hot buy but the technical way to buy it would be to buy it at the bottom of its channel at the 16.50 “area” and then sell it at the top of the channel at the 18.80 “area” of the chart. After that buy a breakout over 19. There isn’t much of a seasonal trend to the chart.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBM.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27018116481&a=713584786

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=XBM.TO

  12. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Ok. Thanks.

  13. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    My last reply was re your #10.
    Just saw your comments on XBM. Thanks for taking a look on your computer. I’ll have another look tomorrow with fresher eyes.

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    The SLV chart looks the same………….

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    Here is a Daily chart of XME which is the Base Metals ETF on the NYSE. I’ve put two ratio charts above it comparing it to XBM.to and COPX. The XME has millions of shares traded daily where the XBM.to has next to none. And the XME has been doing better for some time now as well. I’m not a fan of funnymental analysis (stock stories) but the owners of this site are always worth reading and giving serious consideration to their comments. They are bullish on the base metals from this point on so these ETF charts would be worth considering buying. I’d prefer seeing even more oversold charts myself…………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XME&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02760438430&a=673066257

  16. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Re your #11 and #15

    Thanks for the charts and comments on $SPX, XBM and XME. I like your idea of waiting for the bottom of the channel ~ 16.50 and selling at the top of the channel ~ 18.80 until there is a breakout over 19 (accompanied by good volume and strong buys on the indicators). I did own this for a trade earlier in the year and sold too early ~ March. It had a great run from early November 2020. Perhaps it looked like the same thing might happen this year but it did not (yet).

    To me XBM and XME have similar looking charts with XME in a larger sideways channel. I do look at XME and have owned it in the past.

    Speaking of funnymentals, I had a look at what is in XBM and XME. The latter contains only U.S. companies and is more equal weight. It also holds 3 precious metal companies (NEM, RGLD, HL) and is ~ 12% industrials. XBM is more diversified internationally, holding ~ 35% Canadian companies and 32% U.S. with ~ 9% Asia/Oceania, which would include Australia and is only ~ 2.3 % industrial. The only overlap (among the top ten holdings in each) is FCX and AA. If there is one sector that Canada has good representation in it is metals, so in spite of the low volume on the ETF, I would still consider XBM over XME. XBM also has a 2% yield, more than double that of XME at ~ 0.76%.

    I have been hearing so much about how base metals: lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel and manganese are needed for the electrification of transportation. This is an old story. Like all commodities, they are influenced by supply and demand but are also influenced by politics, which has kept the price of some of these down as China has manipulated the market. Of course, all of this is reflected in the charts and is why, in spite of great funnymentals, the prices have gone no where since ~ May 2021. I seem to remember your friend, Wayne, being very bullish on copper and COPX earlier in the year. I wonder what he did with that trade?

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    I haven’t heard from Wayne for a long time. He used to phone me now and again. His partner and him used to trade coffee. He was always wired and was plugged into things. Him and his partner travel all over the world house sitting. I think he has to come back to Canada at certain times to keep his health benefits. Here is a chart of DBB which is also a base Metals ETF. It tracks just like XBM.to and XME but with much better volume.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBB&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00712543122&a=1075655302

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    Here is list of ETFs that deal in Industrial ETFs and base metals ETFs.

    https://www.thebalance.com/metals-etfs-investing-in-base-and-industrial-metals-1214761

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