Tech Talk for Monday December 6th 2021

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 6th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 16 points in pre-opening trade.

Crescent Point Energy added $0.18 to US$4.60 after the company announced a dividend increase and a share buyback program. The company also raised guidance for production in 2022.

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Whitecap Resources (WCP Cdn$7.01) is expected to open higher after the company announced three acquisitions. The company also launched a share buyback program.

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Kohl’s advanced $2.53 to $50.98 after an activist investor challenged the company to add investor value.

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2021/12/04/stock-market-outlook-for-december-6-2021/

 

The Bottom Line

Extreme volatility was recorded by broadly based equity indices around the world last week. Concerns about a new COVID 19 variant took its toll. If history is used as a guide, North American equity markets have entered into a choppy period between now and December 14th followed by a the strongest three week period during the year from December 15th to January 6th

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Observations

Short term short term indicators for U.S. equity indices and sectors (20 day moving averages, short term momentum indicators) moved lower again last week.

Intermediate term technical indicator for U.S. equity markets (Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average) moved lower last week. It remained Neutral. Trend is down and has yet to show signs of bottoming. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Long term technical indicator for U.S. equity markets (Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average) moved lower again last week. It remained Overbought. Trend remains down. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Short term momentum indicators for Canadian indices and sectors moved lower again last week.

Intermediate term technical indicator for Canadian equity markets changed from Neutral to Oversold last week on a move below 40.00. Trend remains down and has yet to show signs of bottoming. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Long term technical indicator for Canadian equity markets (Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average) moved lower again last week. It remained Neutral. Trend remains down and has yet to show signs of bottoming. See Barometer charts at the end of this report.

Consensus estimates for earnings and revenues in 2021 by S&P 500 companies were virtually unchanged from two weeks ago. According to www.FactSet.com earnings in the fourth quarter are projected to increase 20.9% (versus 21.1% two weeks ago) and revenues are projected to increase 12.7% (versus 12.6% two weeks ago). Earnings for all of 2021 are projected to increase 45.0% (versus 44.9% two weeks ago) and revenues are projected to increase 15.7% (versus 15.8 two weeks ago).

Consensus estimates for earnings and revenues in 2022 by S&P 500 companies also were virtually unchanged from two weeks ago. Consensus earnings on a year-over-year basis for the first quarter are projected to increase 5.9% (versus previous 5.6%) and revenues are expected to increase 9.4% (versus previous 9.3%). Earnings in the second quarter are expected to increase 3.7% (versus previous 3.8%) and revenues are expected to increase 7.3% (versus previous 7.2%). Consensus earnings in 2022 by S&P 500 companies are projected to increase 8.8% (versus previous 8.7%) and revenues are projected to increase7.3% (versus previous 7.1%).

 

Economic News This Week

Third quarter U.S. Nonfarm Productivity to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to decline 4.9% versus a decline of 5.0% in the second quarter.

October U.S. Trade Deficit to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to improve to $67.50 billion from $80.90 billion in September

Canadian October Merchandise Trade Balance to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to slip to +$1.55 billion from +$1.86 billion in September.

Bank of Canada’s statement on interest rates is released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday. Overnight lending rate to major banks is expected to remain unchanged at 0.25%.

November U.S. Consumer Price Index to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.7$ versus a gain of 0.9% in October. Excluding food and energy, November U.S. Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.6% in October.

December Michigan Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 67.0 from 67.4 in November.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Six S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.

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The TSX Composite Index has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 Index between now and the beginning of March. Funds for additional equity investments come partially from individuals who contribute into TSFAs and RRSP following receipts of year-end bonuses. A media comment this weekend predicted that year-end bonuses to bank employees will be 18% higher this year than last year.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Dec.3rd 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Dec.3rd 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Dec.3rd 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX).

 

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

 

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

 

Changes Last Week

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Technical Notes released on Friday at

StockTwits.com@EquityClock

The trend of vehicle sales is slowly normalizing as supply-chain bottlenecks alleviate, but there is substantial progress that is required. equityclock.com/2021/12/02/… $STUDY $MACRO $CARZ $GM $F $TM $TSLA

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The negative divergence recorded in jobless claims over the past month points to another stronger than average payroll report when the numbers are released on Friday morning. $STUDY $MACRO #Economy #Employment #NFP

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China large cap iShares $FXI moved below $37.46 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Medical Devices iShares $IHI moved below $61.27 completing a double top pattern.

Biotech ETF $BBH moved below $187.63 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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DexCom $DXCM a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below 4521.01 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Baidu $BIDU a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $135.89 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Canadian Technology iShares $XIT.CA moved below $51.72 completing a double top pattern.

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Links offered by Valued Providers

Comments by Mark Leibovit on HoweStreet

Why Statements from the Fed Lack Credibility – HoweStreet

 

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for Saturday December 4th

December 4th Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

 

Martin Pring says”Bullish Two-Bar Reversal Patterns Suggest a Temporary Bottom for Some Sectors”.

Bullish Two-Bar Reversal Patterns Suggest a Temporary Bottom for Some Sectors — and Maybe the Market Itself | ChartWatchers | StockCharts.com

 

David Keller asks “Is the spike in volatility bearish for stocks”?

Spike in Volatility Bearish for Stocks? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

 

Thank you to Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com for links to the following comments:

 

Three Canadian Focus List Stocks For 2022 – Uncommon Sense Investor

 

This Chart Shows Volatility Eruptions Are Almost Always Buying Opportunities – Uncommon Sense Investor

 

Three Reasons the Market Has Bottomed & Will Rally Into Year-End – Uncommon Sense Investor

 

12 Best Materials Stocks to Buy for 2022 | Kiplinger

 

Thank you to David Chapman and www.enrichedinvesting.com for the link to Technical Scoop

 

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Kondratiev-relevance-jobs-discrepancy-markets-falling-golden-shine-energy-divergence-banner-year.pdf

 

Talking Points used for the Wolf on Bay Street Interview

Released on Saturday on HiFi Radio on Global News Radio 640 Toronto

World equity markets were rocked during the past 10 days by news of the COVID 19 Omicron variant. The sell-off occurred just after equity indices in North American equity markets reached all-time highs and were technically overbought. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index has dropped about 5% and the TSX Composite Index has dropped 6%. Technically, North American equity prices quickly moved from intermediate overbought to intermediate oversold. Technical signs of an intermediate low have yet to be identified.

Weakness comes at an important time for investors who are considering transactions for tax purposes before the end of the year. Most investors have recorded exceptional capital gains in 2021 despite recent weakness in equity prices. Only a few sectors currently are potential tax loss candidates due to their price decline in 2021. These sectors include precious metals stocks, Chinese stocks and cannabis stocks. A word of caution! When tax loss selling pressures abate (traditionally by mid-December), these sectors could recover significantly.

Traditionally, December has been a month of transition for North American equity indices. The first two weeks of December have a history of recording higher than average volatility with little or no gain. Investors are focussing on by year-end transactions for tax purposes. Thereafter, North American equity markets enter their strongest three week period in the year from December 14th to January 6th. This period is better known as “The Santa Claus Rally” period. Since 1990, the S&P 500 Index has gained 74% of the time and the TSX Composite Index has advanced 87% of the time. Reasons for strength include the following:

· Consumers are in a good mood for the holiday

· Employees receive year-end bonuses that partially are investing in equity markets

· Tax loss selling pressures prior to year-end have passed their peak

· Institutional activity is diminished as traders take holidays and retail investors have a greater influence.

· Investment dealers release bullish year-end reports highlighting the best investment opportunities for the next year.

A caveat for strength in equity markets during the current December 14th to January 6th period! The U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting to determine U.S. monetary policy is scheduled on December 14th and December 15th. Last Tuesday the Federal Reserve chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may reduce its monetary stimulus plan by beginning to reduce its purchases of government fixed income securities earlier than planned. If the Federal Reserve moves to reduce monetary stimulus, North American equity markets could have downside risk. However, the Federal Reserve probably will not want to be “The Grinch That Stole Christmas” and likely will not change policy at this meeting.

What sectors are likely to outperform equity markets between now and early next year?

1. Sectors that will benefit from the recently passed $1.1 trillion U.S. infrastructure program approved by Congress. Sectors include industrial companies receiving contracts to build infrastructure and companies providing materials used in the infrastructure program (e.g. base metals, steel, lumber).

2. Sectors that will benefit from a recovery by economies in the Far East (notably China). Sectors include companies producing base metals, lumber and agriculture products. The Chinese economy is expected to be bolstered by plans to prepare and host the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing in February.

Notable equities and ETFs that are top investment candidates to hold into early 2022 include:

· Forest products equities and ETFs: ETFs include WOOD and CUT

· Base metal equities and ETFs: ETFs include XBM.TO, PICK, COPX, XME

· Agriculture equities and ETFs: MOO, COW.TO

And one more! The recovery by North American economies has prompted a strong increase in inflation pressures. The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. recently jumped to 6.2% on a year-over-year basis in October. In Canada, the Consumer Price Index advanced by 4.7%.Ppassage of a $1.1 trillion infrastructure bill in the U.S. last month is adding to inflation pressures. Inflation pressures will accelerate if President Biden’s “Build Back Better” bill valued at an additional $1.9 trillion if approved by Congress. Since August, rising consumer prices have prompted the price of precious metals and related equities to recover slightly from oversold levels Massive new government spending programs will accelerate inflation pressures and add to the outlook for precious metals and related equities

Precious metals and related stocks could move higher for another reason: ‘Tis the season for precious metals prices and related equity prices to move higher from mid-December to the end of February. Strength is related to the production and sale of precious metal jewelry in China for gifts exchanged during the Chinese New Year’s. In 2022, Chinese New Year is celebrated on February 1st.

The easiest way for Canadians to participate in the gold sector is through a gold equity ETF (e.g.XGD.TO). Any weakness by the sector between now and mid-December will provide a buying opportunity.

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.80 on Friday and fell 11.23 last week to 41.48. It remains Neutral and trending down.

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The long term Barometer eased 1.20 on Friday and 5.41 last week to 60.32. It remains Overbought and trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate Barometer slipped 4.49 on Friday and 19.24 last week to 25.45. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Trend remains down and has yet to show signs of bottoming.

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The long term Barometer slipped 2.53 on Friday and 9.45 last week to 50.46. It remains Neutral and trending down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




10 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday December 6th 2021”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    The $SPX continues to chop back and forth through the September high support of 4545. Price needs to clear the downtrendline and close above these levels and hold to suggest a return to an uptrend again.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95425472801&a=1039537764

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a 20 year chart of Teck/B.to with $CDW and $Copper and XEG.to overlaid to show how well they tend to track each other.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECK%2FB.TO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95633203768&a=673066238

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    MSFT Squeezing More Out Of Its’ Customers to Keep Those Fabulous Earnings Going

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/06/microsoft-will-charge-more-for-office-customers-paying-month-to-month.html

  4. FishFat Says:

    ZEB.to (Cdn Banks ETF)
    Negative divergence on multiple indicators suggests to me that it is time to look for an exit and consider taking profits. Last week the banks increased dividends and some announced share buyback programs. Talk of what a good investment they are made the evening news – another reason to consider selling.
    https://schrts.co/DgyAVEIs

  5. still_learning Says:

    re ZEB.TO
    I disagree FishFat, I’m holding. My MACD(5-8-3) and Stochastic (10,3,3) have just given buy signals. I realize these are v. early indicators but I like to buy early when there has been a pullback. And I’m receiving monthly distributions, $10 per 100sh lately.
    Do appreciate your warning. regards, Bernie (Lethbridge)

  6. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks for your comments last night as well as the charts today. Looks like this week is a big test of $SPX.

    The 20 year chart of Teck/B etc.is a bit hard to see but your trend lines help. To me this shows that these are trading vehicles and not investments. I gave up on Teck/B years ago as well as XEG. I think you once used the phrase “a sorry excuse for an ETF”. I don’t know if you were referring to this ETF but I think that would apply. LOL

  7. Paula Says:

    Fishfat,
    You and your chart make a lot of good points. But if the TSX is going to go up during this seasonally strong period, it will need the banks. Anytime in the last few years when I have sold the banks, I regretted it and bought back in at a higher price. Probably best just to put in stops and let the market decide…

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat/Still Learning/Paula

    Here is a one year Daily chart of closing prices only. Nice to look at a chart without all the intraday noise. Price did bounce off of the August high close breakout point support level at 37.10 and short term indicators (Still Learning’s) just gave a buy signal along with the regular Slow Stochastics and the RSI 8. Seasonals are steady and January is the most bullish time of the year historically. The key number to watch from my point of view is that August high support level at 37.10. And with price just 92 cents above that support it’s not that risky a trade. I don’t know much about the stock stories or the band playing for them,sorry……………….

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91443108314&a=1055739122

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=ZEB.TO

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    ZEB.TO: Looking at a 2 month 15 minute chart one can see 38.40 was support and is now resistance. A breakout above 38.40 would be a good short term buy signal. That wouldn’t surprise me………
    I don’t believe Stockcharts will allow minute charts to post…………but here is is. I suspect it will show as a daily chart.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=15&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p07182189653&a=1049414155

  10. FishFat Says:

    re: ZEB.to
    Thanks everyone for some very interesting observations and insightful comments. I realize the ZEB chart is still bullish – with +DI dominant on the ADX indicator, and with the PPO above the zero line, and with the price above a rising 40-week (200-day) EMA. I get it, is not an obvious sell. But, I stick by my guns. However, watch the PPO indicator. If the PPO moves back above the signal line, my sell recommendation will be null and void.
    https://schrts.co/iUzErPGY

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