Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 7th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures moved lower following release of the December Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for December Non-farm Payrolls was an increase of 422,000 versus an upwardly revised gain of 249,000 in November. Actual was an increase of 199,000. Consensus for the December Unemployment Rate was unchanged from November at 4.2%. Actual was a drop to 3.9%. Consensus for December Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.6%.
The Canadian Dollar added 0.16 to US78.81 cents following release of Canada’s December Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an increase of 25,000 versus a gain of 153,700 in November. Actual was an increase of 54,700. Consensus for the December Unemployment Rate was unchanged from November at 6.0%. Actual was .a slip to 5.9%
Alcoa added $0.58 to $59.03 after JP Morgan raised its target price from $52 to $62.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0011-2.png "clip_image001[1]")
MasterCard slipped $1.67 to $368.33 after Mizuho lowered its target price from$465 to $400.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0021-3.png "clip_image002[1]")
Visa dropped $2.79 to $216.96 after Mizuho lowered its target price from $255 to $220. Mizuho also reduced its rating from Buy to Neutral.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0031-2.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/01/06/stock-market-outlook-for-january-7-2022/
Hap Sneddon from CastleMoore on Market Call
Hap is available to answer your investment questions on BNNBloomberg’s Market Call today at 12:00 Noon
Technical Notes released yesterday at
Align $ALGN moved below $572.51 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Cadence Design $CDNS a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $170.55 completing a double top pattern.
The Technology sector ETF could fall an additional 6% and still maintain its trend of higher-highs and higher-lows. equityclock.com/2022/01/05/… $XLK $VGT $IYW $QQQ $COMPQ
Wheat ETN $WEAT moved below $7.26 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Moderna $MRNA a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $210.96 extending an intermediate downtrend.
IDEXX $IDXX a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $575.59 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Blackrock $BLK an S&P 100 stock moved below $884.33 completing a double top pattern.
Open Text $OTEX a TSX 60 stock moved below US$45.18 extending an intermediate downtrend
Regional Bank SPDRs $KRE moved above $75.32 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Major U.S. bank SPDRs $KBE moved above $57.91 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Commerce Bank $CM.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above $151.21 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Jan.6th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Jan.6th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Jan.6th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
Links from valued providers
Greg Schnell discusses “Goldilocks and The Three Bears
Goldilocks And The Three Bears | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com
Greg Schnell discuss “New Names Rotating into 2022â€.
New Names Rotating Into 2022! | Greg Schnell, CMT | Market Buzz (01.05.22) – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.20 to 67.94 yesterday. It remains Overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
The long term Barometer slipped 1.40 to 71.14 yesterday. It remains Overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.15 to 50.00 yesterday. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer was unchanged at 58.11 yesterday. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 7th, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Here is a long term 20 year chart of the Nasdaq plus a long term 20 year chart of the $SPX. Both look extremely overbought to my eyes. This time last year the Nasdaq fell over 3000 pts straight down very quickly.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57434976490&a=1092908250
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84479899459&a=673066405
January 7th, 2022 at 1:03 pm
#1 should read “this time 2 years ago”.
January 7th, 2022 at 1:05 pm
Here is the $TSX long term 20 year chart. Much like the other major markets.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TSX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67323382171&a=1093149596
January 7th, 2022 at 6:23 pm
Someone once commented on using LOG Scale charts which are based on percentage point changes. The chart does smooth out much better than standard price charts but the problem is you don’t spend percentage point changes you spend dollars. As an example as a young man our boss said he was giving everyone a raise of 5%. Most were happy with that as it was better than nothing and the senior staff would get far more dollars than the junior staff. So I spoke to my boss and told him my thoughts on this and he agreed I would be getting the smallest raise of the staff. He said he’d “top up” my income in a couple of months to match dollar for dollar the other raises and praised me for spotting the unfairness of the 5% raise. My point to him was that I don’t spend percentage increases I spend dollars. With stocks there is a place for observing percentage changes but this example is something to keep in mind as a percentage change can be very deceiving.
January 7th, 2022 at 7:06 pm
Ron/BC,
When I saw your posts and long term charts of the $COMPQ, $SPX and $TSX, my first thought was that these would look very different if they were log charts. Others have pointed this out, as you say. I knew that you would insist that using log chart is wrong, so I wasn’t going to say anything. But since you bring it up, why do so many reputable technical analysts use log charts?
January 7th, 2022 at 8:13 pm
Paula
I’ve compared both Log scale and Price scale charts and always found that “price is king”. The example above in #4 explains it. As far as so many analysts using Log scale goes I’ve spoken to many analysts and asked that question and found their depth of knowledge was disappointing as they’d just say that’s what this company uses and it’s easier to say something was up 5% or 8% rather than a price as price changes need to relate to price only so is more difficult to state. Ex: Up $5 per share is much different with a $200 stock than a $20 stock. So a percentage change is quickly grasped by everyone without a lot of explaining. And when they are speaking of many stock price changes I can understand why they would use percentage price changes. But to each their own……….
January 7th, 2022 at 8:24 pm
Paula
Here are charts of Weekly long term 20 year charts of the $SPX with one LOG Scale and the other Price Scale.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11855404332&a=1093406153
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84479899459&a=673066405
January 8th, 2022 at 2:18 am
Paula
I should have used the same sized charts to compare the price chart and log chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69640960486&a=673066405
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28318094694&a=1093406153
January 8th, 2022 at 12:33 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for posting the charts. My conclusion is that it doesn’t really matter, as long as you are consistent in what you do so that you are comparing apples to apples…
January 9th, 2022 at 5:54 pm
Paula
Actually my main point was to show just how far away those major markets are away from their 200emas. Prices of them show just how “stretched out” prices are presently. If all a person did was to buy price at or even near those 200emas they’d do well without focusing on all the questionable stories about them. Buying there could be fine tuned to avoid most paper losses by using other technical indicators when positive.