Pre-opening Comments for Thursday January 13th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 4 points at 7:30 AM EST.
Index futures were waiting for release of the U.S. December Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus is an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.8% in November. Excluding food and energy, consensus was an increase of 0.5% versus a gain of 0.7% in November.
KB Homes gained $2.30 to $44.68 after the company issued favourable fourth quarter revenue guidance.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0011-5.png "clip_image001[1]")
Lennar added $3.50 to $111.44 after the company’s directors announced a 50% dividend increase.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0021-6.png "clip_image002[1]")
Boeing added $1.45 to $217.45 after China authorized resumption of Boeing 373 Max aircraft flights.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0031-5.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/01/12/stock-market-outlook-for-january-13-2022/
Observation
The industrial commodity ETF (Symbol: GSG) moved above $18.21 to a four year high. Also, the CRB Index moved above 241.18 to a seven year high. Notable was strength in base metal and energy commodity prices.
Industrial commodity prices are responding to completion of a double top pattern by the U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETF (Symbol:UUP)
Technical Notes released yesterday at
The case for Gold and the fundamental headwinds against it in 2022. equityclock.com/2022/01/11/… $GLD $SGOL $GDX $GDXJ $NUGT $JNUG $DUST $JDST #Gold
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher by 7.0% in 2021, which is the strongest calendar-year pace since 1981 and well above the 2.1% increase that has been average over the past two decades. $STUDY $MACRO #CPI $TIP
BMO Equal Weight Base Metals ETF $ZMT.CA moved above $55.70 and $56.74 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to late February. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/bmo-sptsx-equal-weight-global-base-metals-hedged-to-cad-index-etf-tsezmt-to-seasonal-chart
Base Metals iShares $XBM.CA moved above Cdn$20.21 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to late February. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/ishares-sptsx-global-base-metals-index-etf-tsexbm-to-seasonal-chart
Copper Miners ETF $COPX moved above $39.97 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until at least late February. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/global-x-copper-miners-etf-nysecopx-seasonal-chart
Southern Copper $SCCO one of the world’s largest copper producers moved above $6582 and $66.21 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to late April. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/southern-copper-corp-nysescco-seasonal-chart
First Quantum $FM.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above $35.06 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to the end of April. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/first-quantum-minerals-ltd-otcmktfqvlf-seasonal-chart
Canadian "gassy" stocks are responding to colder than average weather and higher natural gas prices. ARC Resources $ARX.CA moved above $13.23 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until at least the end of February and frequently to May. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/arc-resources-ltd-tsearx-seasonal-chart
Israel iShares $EIS moved above $79.35 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to mid-April. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/ishares-msci-israel-capped-etf-nyseeis-seasonal-chart
BMO China ETF $ZCH.CA moved above $20.20 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern. Seasonal influences are strongly favourable to the end of February and frequently to the end of April. If a a subscriber to EqutyClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/bmo-china-equity-index-etf-tsezch-to-seasonal-chart
Agriculture ETF $MOO moved above $96.01 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
South Korea iShares $EWY moved above $79.68 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
South Africa iShares $EZA moved above $50.26 extending an intermediate uptrend
India ETF $PIN moved above $27.74 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Biogen $BIIB an S&P 100 stock moved below $221.72 extending an intermediate downtrend
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Jan.12th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Jan.12th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Jan.12th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
Links from Valued Providers
Comments from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
Top "Special Situations" Amazon Partner Could Gain 59% – Uncommon Sense Investor
Outperforming Value Investor Says Uber is Cheap & Could Double. Seriously. – Uncommon Sense Investor
Could the Nifty Five Go the Way of the Nifty 50? – Uncommon Sense Investor
Greg Schnell’s Market Buzz:
Popping copper in 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3QLeoC2h2s
Seasonality Chart of the Day from www.EquityClock.com
‘Tis the season for WTI crude oil prices to move higher on a real and relative basis from mid-December to June.
Crude Oil Futures (CL) Seasonal Chart
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Crude Oil ETN $USO moved above $58.69 extending an intermediate uptrend. Units are closely following their period of seasonal strength from mid-December to June.
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S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.40 to 66.13 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer gained 0.80 to 72.95 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate Barometer added 0.47 to 52.94 yesterday. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.82 to 58.37 yesterday. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 13th, 2022 at 9:13 am
FM – First Quantum chart above. The volatility over the past year is just tremendous. Let’s say you bought it at some point in the middle of the range around $28. You could have been shook out of the stock for a loss at so many points when it cratered. If you hung on you would now be up 29%. Either you have to be a very nimble trader or you have to have a long-term view of at least 12 months.
There was a great interview with Jeremy Siegel on the CNBC half-time show yesterday. Unfortunately you have to have a pay account to access it. Basically he said that all the talk about inflation being temporary is wrong and he pointed straight to the historically unprecedented growth of the money supply. Bonds are a negative real rate investment that will eventually crash. He says in an inflationary environment stocks go up in value as real assets because of TINA (IMO it will be selective and volatile). People won’t leave their money in cash. He’s one man who does not have a monopoly on truth but I take him seriously.
The surge in materials and energy stocks as well as financials is all tied to inflation.(apologies for stating the obvious).
January 13th, 2022 at 9:44 am
he AAII this week has the bulls at a 4 month low of 24.9% down from 32.8% the previous week……..the bearish sentiment is 38.3% up from 33.3%….hmmmm……
January 13th, 2022 at 9:51 am
GM Larry, Pray tell…. what is TINA?
fwiw,
there is a no-delay scanner on youtube, USA only, naturally,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV_xNtRTZJo&ab_channel=Zendoo
commodities etf’s, pequeno en fuego
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GSG,RJA,RJI,RJZ,JJA,JJG,DBA,PDBC,DBC,WOOD,CPER,BAL|D|0
(got some RJA in Aug)
January 13th, 2022 at 9:51 am
CWB – Really breaking higher after a brief pause. It should close the gap with the all-time high at 41.22. HCG is another sleeper but it pays no dividend. Huge potential but does not trade the same way as the rest of the financials. Good in small amounts with patience. I did a round trip with LB and it is actually pennies away from taking out it’s all-time high. A real turn around story that is speculative.
January 13th, 2022 at 9:53 am
Rol Lew if I was still 10 years old it would be Tina Louise
January 13th, 2022 at 10:26 am
Larry, and this Jan 13th, 2022 TINA, Who is she? A soul mate of Jay Powell, perhaps?
“”as real assets because of TINA (IMO it will be selective and volatile)””
couldn’t help noticing how similar the recent weeks patterns are for CWB & ovv, and others
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CWB.TO,OVV.TO,CVE.TO,CJ.TO,PD.TO,IMO.TO,CNQ.TO,VET.TO,OBE.TO,IPCO.TO,PKI.TO,NOA.TO|D|0
(small position in CVE)
January 13th, 2022 at 10:54 am
Rol Lew – I think for some time I have been looking for CWB to get an extra lift from the energy sector so yes a bit of a proxy but it hasn’t really paid off when you compare to the performance of ZEB. I constantly compare relative performance. CWB is undervalued IMO and I am looking for catch-up. I bought two days ago.
January 13th, 2022 at 10:58 am
HCG – I have really looked at it and doesn’t it look like a nice time to buy low when it looks like it bottomed and is breaking the downtrend. Positive MACD crossover.
January 13th, 2022 at 11:48 am
OIL — what goes up, will come down?
investing.com/analysis/as–oil-prices-rally-7-things-could-drive-them-higheror-lower-200614583
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HCG-to is a bit of a mystery to me as well. (Nothing new here!)
“You” would think, that with everybody and his sister, going to HCG for a mortgage to pay for their new 1 or 2 million $ home in the burbs of Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary, Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto, and more , HCG would have more profits than you can shake a stick at, with would be reflected in the stock chart, although 30% up in 2021 is still better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. Earnings Date Feb 16th.
Is EQB-t another sleeper?…. I dunno, who knows?
TORONTO, Jan. 12, 2022 /CNW/ – Equitable will report its financial results for the three and 12 months ended December 31, 2021 after the market closes on February 17, 2022.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ZEB.TO,ZUB.TO,BNS.TO,RY.TO,TD.TO,BMO.TO,CM.TO,HCG.TO,EQB.TO,CWB.TO,NA.TO,LB.TO|D|0
Look at 1 year graphs.
((This link for some reason defaults to 2 mths, if you click on it.
Does anybody know how to make 1 year stick as the default?))
January 13th, 2022 at 12:23 pm
EQB – Something went wrong on the last earnings report but I don’t think it changes its’ longer term outlook. EQB has a pile of outperform ratings It did a two for one split and is now doing a large share buyback as is HCG. When financials are in a true up-cycle there should be more alpha on small cap banks. I am going to look at EQB again and probably will return to this one. When you see the saddest bank of them all make a new all-time high like LB did today you know this sector is firing on all cylinders and is the place to be.
January 13th, 2022 at 12:33 pm
As Columbo always said “Just one more thing.” Foreign money. There has been a lot of US discussion about finding value outside the US and Europe and emerging markets are pointed to. I never hear the commentators mention the Canadian market but I suspect that US money is looking at Canadian equities including our banks. When $CAD is ripping higher like it is now it makes it even more attractive for outside money.
January 13th, 2022 at 12:40 pm
LB – Correction not “all-time high”. It made a new high going back to 2018. It’s a multi-year reverse head and shoulders pattern
January 13th, 2022 at 2:32 pm
Here is a 20 year Weekly chart of the Canadian dollar. Price is still under its long term downtrendline. Price needs to clear “and hold” above 83 to suggest a trend change back to up again.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25602693946&a=1081737333
January 13th, 2022 at 6:05 pm
Ross Healy likes to refer to Price to Book when looking at bank stocks.
Looks like he also liked laurentian bank back in october 21, & since nov 2020
https://stockchase.com/expert/view/17/Ross-Healy
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CWB.TO/key-statistics?p=CWB.TO
PRICE TO BOOK
BNS 1.62
BMO 1.67
HCG 1.15
EQB 1.36
CWB 1.01
TD 1.85
LB 0.70
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LB.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76783154363
Looks like this train has already left the station?
January 13th, 2022 at 6:23 pm
Ron/BC,
Re your #2. Yesterday (January 12). You are right, SHOP.TO is just one stock up against all the Canadian banks, not to mention the energy companies which are on a tear. I am wondering if you got TBF (proshares short 20+ treasury NYSE) mixed up with TBT.TO, which Stockcharts does not show. I remember trying to find this a couple of years ago and then decided not to bother. I think it trades on a different exchange. So comparing TBF to RY.TO and ZEB.TO is not valid – mixing USD and CAD currencies.
I agree that TBF needs to clear 18.49. Today it fell back and is testing its’ 200day EMA ~ 16.44. It seems to me that the banks are rising on expectations of interest rate increases but the TBF is the one not responding. It is a proxy for interest rates actually rising, not the expectation of rising, so maybe that explains the difference (if you want an explanation).
January 13th, 2022 at 6:25 pm
meant to send an updated chart:
https://schrts.co/NrwGizIk
January 13th, 2022 at 7:02 pm
Paula
Not sure what you were referring to using TBT on the U.S. exchange.
But here is TBF again with U.S. symbols. Actually I’m losing it with these ratio charts. See what you can decipher from them if anything as you seem to be able to do this better than I can..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=W&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78969022668
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBF&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22455546998&a=673066228
January 13th, 2022 at 7:06 pm
Rol Lew
Here is your link in One Year charts (I think)
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ZEB.TO,ZUB.TO,BNS.TO,RY.TO,TD.TO,BMO.TO,CM.TO,HCG.TO,EQB.TO,CWB.TO,NA.TO,LB.TO|D|0
January 13th, 2022 at 7:09 pm
Rol Lew
The chart doesn’t change from two months until you select One Year and then they all change to one year…
January 13th, 2022 at 8:32 pm
Ron/BC,
Ok. Don’t worry about it. I think the mix up is with TBT (ultrashort), which is double leveraged and TBF which is only single.
Thanks for the charts. That is much better with RY in USD but I agree that it not that useful. I don’t think that comparing RY to TBF was my intention. I was still on the topic of RY and SHOP competing to influence XIU.
Although the general idea of interest rates going up would cause bond prices to go down as well as have an affect on bank stocks so many it is ok to compare them.
I have been watching TBF as an unleveraged short on the 20 year U.S. Treasury bond. I’m starting to think that this is not going to work or at least it will require more patience than I have.
January 13th, 2022 at 8:42 pm
Re #20, 3rd paragraph correct “many” to “maybe”.
January 13th, 2022 at 8:51 pm
Paula
Thanks Paula. I like the conclusions you come to using techncals. You have a good depth of knowledge without all the b.s. that often comes with it.