Pre-opening Comments for Thursday January 20th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 20 points at 7:30 AM EST.
Alcoa added $0.68 to $60.31 after reporting better than consensus fourth quarter revenues.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0011-10.png "clip_image001[1]")
United Airlines slipped $1.00 to $43.40 after projecting lower capacity usage in the fourth quarter than in 2019.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0021-10.png "clip_image002[1]")
Kinder Morgan gained $0.17 to$17.60 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clip_image0031-9.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/01/19/stock-market-outlook-for-january-20-2022/
Technical Notes released yesterday at
Consumer Discretionary SPDRs $XLY moved below $189.90 completing a double top pattern. .
Latin America equity markets/ETFs such as $ILF recently have moved above base building patterns. Nice breakout by Brazil iShares $EWZ above $29.10 completing a double bottom pattern! Seasonal influences are favourable until early March. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/ishares-msci-brazil-capped-etf-nyseewz-seasonal-chart
Silver stocks and related equity ETFs $SIL are responding to higher silver prices. Silver bullion iShares $SVR.CA moved above $11.76. Notably stronger this morning is Hecla Mining $HL on a breakout above $5.38. Seasonal influences for Hecla and silver equities/ETFs are favourable until at least the end of February and frequently to May. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart on Hecla at https://charts.equityclock.com/hecla-mining-company-nysehl-seasonal-chart
Gold equity ETFs are moving above recent trading ranges setting intermediate uptrends. $GDX moved above $32.08, $GDXJ moved above $42.22. Seasonal influences are favourable to the end of February.
TSX Global Gold iShares $XGD.CA moved above intermediate resistance at Cdn$18.33. Seasonal influences are strongly favourable until late February. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/ishares-sptsx-global-gold-index-etf-tsexgd-to-seasonal-chart
Other precious metals ETNs and futures also are recording impressive gains this morning. Platinum ETN $PPLT moved above $93.56 extending a short term uptrend. Seasonal influences are strongly positive to late February. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at
https://charts.equityclock.com/etfs-physical-platinum-shares-nysepplt-seasonal-chart
Another precious metals breakout! Palladium ETN $PALL moved above $187.94 extending an intermediate downtrend. Seasonal influences are strongly positive until the end of February. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/etfs-physical-palladium-shares-nysepall-seasonal-chart
Barrick Gold $ABX.CA and $GOLD moved above short term resistance at Cdn$24.25 following news that fourth quarter production exceeded consensus. Seasonal influences are strongly positive to the end of February. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at
https://charts.equityclock.com/barrick-gold-corp-tseabx-seasonal-chart
Another gold stock breakout! Kinross $K.CA and $KGC a TSX 60 stock moved above US$5.84 setting an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until late February. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/kinross-gold-corp-nysekgc-seasonal-chart
More gold stock breakouts setting intermediate uptrends! Yamana $YRI.CA moved above Cdn$5.39, Agnico-Eagle $AEM moved above US$53.83 and First Majestic Silver $AG moved above US$11.70
WTI crude oil $WTIC moved above $$85.41 to a seven year high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to early March and frequently to the end of June. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/crude-oil-futures-cl-seasonal-chart
Saputo $SAP.CA a TSX 60 stock moved below $27.36 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Jan.19th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Jan.19th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Jan.19th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
Links offered by valued providers
Thank you to Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com for the following links:
Are You Ready If a Crash is Coming? – Uncommon Sense Investor
Six Reasons to Get Less Bullish on Banks – Uncommon Sense Investor
Greg Schnell discusses “Navigating down markets and weaknessâ€
Navigating Down Markets and Weakness | Greg Schnell, CMT | Market Buzz (01.19.22) – YouTube
Greg Schnell asks “Is the market headed for a much bigger pullback�
JC Parets discusses “Rotating into international marketsâ€.
Rotation To International | JC Parets, CMT | All Star Charts (01.19.22) – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped another 5.81 to 44.69 yesterday. It remains Neutral and trending down.
The long term Barometer slipped another 2.81 to 59.32 yesterday. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00 and continues to trend down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.37 to 53.24 yesterday. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 3.11 to 57.41 yesterday. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 20th, 2022 at 9:08 am
the AAII survey this week shows the bulls at just 21% versus 24.9% last week ….the Dec.29 reading was 37.7%…….the bears are up to 46.7% from 38.3% last week at just 30.5% on dec.29th………if you use these figures in your thinking then it’s hard to see this market crashing just yet……
January 20th, 2022 at 10:23 am
Maybe I have been too pessimistic. QQQ has held at the 200 day MA at the moment. There has been no follow through this morning on yesterday’s close at the day’s lows. We are at a potential turning point but what continues to bother me is that we have not seen a true washout where investors are screaming for the exit. Since July 2020 SPX has never been back to the 200 day MA but keeps bottoming well above it. It could be the case once more. GOOGL looks interesting right now. Place your bets.
January 20th, 2022 at 10:39 am
CNN Market Sentiment Indicator – It shows “Greed” but the components generating the greed indicator are extreme greed on junk bond demand, put/call ratios and stock price breadth. Market momentum is at extreme fear. Stock price breadth is a good positive indicator. So I read that as market momentum being overdone to the downside implying a possible reversal. I’m just an amateur blogging here.
January 20th, 2022 at 11:46 am
THIS is the chart that concerns me regardless of how bullish many analysts are. As always draw your own conclusions. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many happy stock holders out there.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57434976490&a=1092908250
January 20th, 2022 at 1:06 pm
Ron B/C,
re #4
the question yet to be answered is, will the powell put (continue to) work like the bernanke put did.
https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&ei=UTF-8&p=the+bernanke+put&type=E211US1056G0#id=1&vid=8a96eba2e4c44431ea1d0276c51bc0b1&action=click
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGKXVgkaGPo&ab_channel=FinancialSource
or, can a leopard change its spots?
Could be, we are witnessing taper tantrum 2.0? If nothing else, it’s a great movie.
January 20th, 2022 at 1:19 pm
Parabolic moves like in Ron’s chart #4 don’t usually end well………
January 20th, 2022 at 2:15 pm
#4 & #5
The chart of $COMP & $SPX remind me of Alan Greenspan’s comments about “IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE”!
January 20th, 2022 at 2:15 pm
I agree with cautious comments 4-6. There is a lot of risk out there but I will once again take issue with use of non-logarithmic charts implying exponential moves. The average return of SPX since its’ inception in 1957 through to 2021 is 10.5%. The market high in early 2018 was 2873. I will take that as my starting point and extrapolate a 10.5% annual increase since that time.
2873 with a 10.5% annual increase brings you to 4283 and we are at 4568. It’s not that dramatic though still elevated. The difference between 2018 and 2022 is the increase of the money supply. M2 increased 35.7% between Dec 2019 and Aug 2021. That money has to go somewhere and that will over time serve to increase all asset prices beyond what was possible in 2018. Secondly, the Fed funds rate was 2% in 2018 and is presently 0.25%. Even pricing in four increases only brings us to 1.25%.
January 20th, 2022 at 4:12 pm
#8
Here is a LOG SCALE of the Weekly $COMP. Smaller spreads but the message is the same.
IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE. Rationalizing the charts wont change anything as price is far too far away from major moving averages and uptrendlines. 3200 pts above its 200ema and 5200 pts above its long term uptrendline is not a rational market that is sustainable.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11300098922&a=1100437889
This Daily chart of the $COMP shows price selling off 2000 points since the mid November high to the 14200 level which price has tested 3 times successfully last year as support. So on the short term price is likely to bounce back from this price point. A clear break below 14200 next would see a much stronger and faster selloff. Time to pay close attention for short term traders.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14097304684&a=673066561
January 21st, 2022 at 2:32 am
S&P 500 Futures – Mar 22
https://invst.ly/x6apz
Support 200 MA (S&P 500 Futures)